New England Patriots Vs. Minnesota Vikings NFL Player Props & Picks (11/24/22)
Contents
Get New England Patriots Vs. Minnesota Vikings player prop picks & odds for the (11/24/22) matchup
New England Patriots Vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Search Tool
Search any NFL player in the search box to bring up their
NFL player props
New England Patriots Vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Picks
In the nightcap to a wonderful day of Thanksgiving football, we’ll watch the Patriots and Vikings face off in primetime. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop values from this Thanksgiving edition of Thursday Night Football. You can use the Patriots vs. Vikings player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks and find the best value in your market. Let’s get to work.
T.J. Hockenson Over 4.5 Receptions (+125 PointsBet)
Matt brought this player prop up on our YouTube show, and I was a bit skeptical, but I realized later how much value there is in this line. T.J. Hockenson has a whopping 28 targets in three games since joining the Vikings, good for a 23% team target share, but he’s averaging just 5.3 yards per target.
That low average is in line with his aDOT of just 6.0 yards. Over the course of his career, he has an aDOT of 7.7 yards, and he’s being used closer to the line of scrimmage by his new team. That role has resulted in him catching 21 balls on those 28 targets (77.8% catch rate) since arriving in Minnesota.
The Patriots are always great against tight ends, which is why I was skeptical of this prop at first, but Matt made some great points as the role of Hockenson in this offense. He’s used as a safety blanket for Kirk Cousins, particularly when he’s under pressure as he will be in this game. That will be especially true if Justin Jefferson is limited with his turf toe.
New England ranks second in pressure rate and the Vikings will be without stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw this week. As a result, look for plenty of short-area targets for Hockenson with Cousins fighting for his life in the pocket once again this week. I’ll happily take these plus odds on Hockenson getting 5+ catches for the fourth straight game with his new team.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)
Rhamondre Stevenson is nothing short of an elite pass-catching running back. There are two running backs with receiving grades of 90+ on PFF – Stevenson and Christian McCaffrey. Stevenson has averaged just under 50 receiving yards per game over his last four outings.
The Vikings have been incredibly vulnerable against running backs in the passing game as Tony Pollard illustrated last week with his 109 receiving yards. Minnesota ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA against the position, allowing 7.4 catches for 42.6 yards per game, and Stevenson will be able to take advantage.
Pollard torched linebacker Jordan Hicks for two long catches last week, and he racked up 98 yards and two touchdowns on those receptions. If the Vikings put Eric Kendricks in coverage on Stevenson, that won’t be much better, as he ranks 5th-worst on PFF among linebackers with 85+ coverage snaps.
Stevenson has absolutely dominated in terms of opportunities, as well, with 6+ targets in four straight games and 5+ in seven of his last eight games. While Damien Harris ran well last week, the Patriots won’t go away from Stevenson with how much he means to their passing offense. Look for him to continue his strong momentum here.
Justin Jefferson Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-111 Caesars)
Last week snapped what had been a six-week stretch for Justin Jefferson with a longest reception over this prop line. Despite the Vikings trailing for most of the game, Jefferson’s production was mitigated due to the Cowboys’ elite pass rush and an outstanding all around effort from cornerback Trevon Diggs.
The Patriots will get pressure in this game as they have all season. However, despite that pressure, New England has been vulnerable in allowing long receiving plays. They’ve coughed up 30+ yard receptions to Denzel Mims (twice), Garrett Wilson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Allen Lazard in recent weeks.
Overall, New England has an excellent pass defense that’s allowing just 188.3 yards per game, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. However, they are also allowing 11.8 yards per completion, the fifth-most, as they’ve been beaten by longer catches.
The Patriots predominantly run Cover 1 and Cover 3 defense, leaving their corners on an island on the perimeter, and Jefferson can shine there. He owns an elite 4.79 yards per route run and 44.9% air yard share against Cover 1 and 3 defense this year for the Vikings per Jordan Vanek of the 33rd Team.
My biggest concern here isn’t that the Patriots are notorious for taking away the opposing offense’s number one weapon – Jefferson is too good to be completely taken away. However, it’s up for debate how much Jefferson’s turf toe injury impacted his ability to produce last week compared to the difficult matchup, and he still might not be 100% healthy. Still, I love the odds here.
