New England Patriots vs. New York Giants (10/10/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week’s Results: 4-6
All-Time Results: 36-29, +6.4 Units

New York Giants +17 @ New England Patriots – .01 Units

Unsurprisingly, Patriots HC, Bill Belichick has never lost to a rookie quarterback at Gilette Stadium.  Overall, Belichick is 19-5 against first-year signal-callers, including 12-0 in Foxborough.  However, the spread being the great equalizer, Belichik’s New England teams are only 12-11-1 ATS against rookie QBs.  With nothing to lose without much travel time to Boston, I like for New York to keep it close tonight.

new england patriotsKeeping my plays minimum just because I don’t think you can get rich betting against Belichick and Brady.  Since 2000, the Pats are an incredible 57% ATS and have been even better over the past 5 years (60%).   Yet again bettors strictly playing the Patriots blind against the spread are having a profitable season at 3-2 (60%).

The Patriots have given up 2 offensive touchdowns in 6 games this year.  As talented and well-coached as they are, I just don’t see that pace being sustainable.

Proceedings have been just a little too easy for the defending champs, and even Belichick and company aren’t immune to human nature.  The Patriots can likely play their worst game of the season and still bring Jarrett Stidham in for Victory Formation duty in the 4th quarter.  Taking a flyer on the dog here.  Prediction: Patriots 27, Giants 14.

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Daniel Jones to throw over 250 yards & Giants win (+1500) -.01

Simple value play here. In my mind, I don’t see a scenario in which the Giants win and Daniel Jones doesn’t throw for over 250 yards. Saquon Barkley is not back yet and their backup running back, Wayne Gallman is also out for this game. As unlikely as it is if the Giants do win it will have to be through Jones having a big day.   Golden Tate has been working his way back into the fold after suspension, providing another outlet for Jones to rack up yards and keep drives alive on 3rd down.  Jones has an excellent 54% conversion rate on 3rd so far for his young career.

The money line for this game is hovering around +700, so we are essentially getting double our value while hardly changing the proposition. If the Giants win the game, my guess is that Jones throws for over the 250-yard mark, 80-90% of the time.

Golden Tate Over 54.5 Yards (+115) – .01

Tate’s debut as a Giants was predictably a clunker. While suspended Tate had zero time with the team.  He could only watch on TV when the franchise made the move to Jones replacing Eli Manning. With another week of practice under his belt, I like for Tate to get going against a classic bend but don’t break Pats defense. Since 2014 no player in the NFL has more Yards After the Catch than Tate, and a great way for Jones to keep his sanity in this contest will be for him to get rid of the ball instantaneously to Tate outside to let him make a play.

The Patriots proved capable of falling asleep and missing tackles duties last week, when the Dead Skins first reverse of the game went for 50+ yards and a touchdown.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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