New Favorite Emerges For 49ers No. 3 Selection & Other 2021 Draft Futures

There has been a ton of movement on the line of who will be the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. A reminder that the 49ers traded away multiple future first-round picks to move up from 12 to 3 with the Dolphins. With this move, the 49ers were obviously eyeing one of the QBs. The consensus is that the Jaguars will take Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick, and the Jets will take Zach Wilson with the second overall pick.

However, what will the 49ers do? Also, who is the favorite, according to bookmakers. Let’s take a look at the movement on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mac Jones Holds His Lead

When the pick was originally traded, Justin Fields was the favorite to be selected. However, after some media buzz that the 49ers really like Mac Jones, he sprung to a narrow lead with +110 odds which became -105 odds rather quickly.

This weekend Mac Jones reached his peak when it came to being a favorite at -305, but after the news Monday morning that the 49ers will be attending both Trey Lance’s and Justin Fields’ second pro days, Mac Jones has dropped all the way down to -200. While still a clear favorite, a drop like this means that bookmakers are not actually as sure as one would think.

As it stands now, Justin Fields sits at +175 and Trey Lance at +400. DraftKings and bookmakers all over are pretty convinced it is a two-horse race between the Alabama quarterback Mac Jones and Ohio State’s Justin Fields.

For reference, -200 odds means that Vegas is giving Mac Jones a 66.7% chance of landing with the 49ers at number three, while his peak was at around 75%. Justin Fields basically takes up the entire other portion of probability at 36.4% implied odds of going at number three. Note that bookmakers implied odds will always far surpass 100% as that is how they make money.

Kyle Pitts Becomes A Top 5 Favorite

There have been rumors swirling now that the Falcons or Bengals will be taking Kyle Pitts. He has now become the clear favorite as his odds of going in the top 5 picks sit at -167. Kyle Pitts is a great talent but I am unsure if this movement is caused by actual team information or media hype.

With many people expecting a trade up to number 4 and even number 5 for a quarterback, this has pushed Penei Sewell’s odds of being a top 5 pick as an offensive lineman down to +108. At one time, he was considered a lock-in top 5 draft pick.

This draft is turning into one of the most interesting ones of the past decade. Due to the fact that the draft class is so good and deep at so many positions, experts, scouts, and even the teams themselves seemingly do not have any clue how the 1st round will unfold.

The media hype around certain players such as Mac Jones going to the 49ers or Kyle Pitts being the single greatest prospect ever has 100% affected the Vegas odds, as the public are the ones wagering. However, it is possible that this is really the only thing that has shifted, and the teams’ plans have stayed the same despite the constant fluctuation of odds.