New Mexico vs. Texas A&M kicks off this Saturday at 7:00pm EST at College Station as a home game for the Aggies. Texas A&M is currently a -38.5 favorite and the moneyline is off the board while the total is set at 49. Read on for more New Mexico vs. Texas A&M best bets and predictions as points may come at a premium in this contest.
New Mexico Vs. Texas A&M Prediction & Best Bet
It was a shockingly mediocre year for the Aggies after coming into the season chock full of talent. Jimbo Fisher has turned them into a recruiting machine yet has failed to live up to the hype as their offense was as anemic as it gets. Haynes King fell flat on his face under center and the rest of the offense failed to generate any sort of consistency.
The offense now goes into this season with major question marks all over as Haynes King entered the transfer portal. Conner Weigman and Max Johnson are expected to enter a quarterback duel, as well as run under a new system with the arrival of OC Bobby Petrino.
It will be a tall task to suddenly turn around the offense with new leadership both on the sideline and under center. Even with talent in the backfield and outside, I expect the offense to start out sluggish as their quarterback play has been severely underwhelming. New Mexico is also no pushover on defense when defending the pass, ranking 47th in Def Pass Success Rate and 59th in Def Pass PPA.
Now while the Lobos do a modest job at defending the pass, they are very weak at defending the run. Ranking a lowly 100th in Def Rush Success Rate and 102nd in Def Rush PPA, the Aggies will have a clear advantage on the ground. Luckily for our under tickets, the Lobos are capable of limiting the damage by not allowing any big gains. They ranked top-40 in Def Rush Explosiveness.
Expecting the Aggies to start out sluggish in the air attack, as well as abuse the run, the far superior team plays towards an under tickets pace. On the flip side, the Aggies are still a stout defense and are more than capable of stalling out the improved Lobo’s offense.
New Mexico Vs. Texas A&M Odds
Even amidst turnover changes at quarterback and OC, the Aggies are still expected to thoroughly dominate the Lobos as oddsmakers opened Texas A&M as a -38 favorite. Bettors have yet to take a stand on either side of the number, failing to nudge it any higher than -38.5 towards the Aggies. It’s tough to back them as a slow start can be detrimental to covering such a large spread, making this an instant pass.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 49. Like the spread, bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the total by keeping the number the same as the opener. While the Lobo’s offense is poised to improve, they still will have a daunting task of moving the ball against an elite Aggies defense.
New Mexico Vs. Texas A&M Key Matchups
Can the Aggies slow down Andrew Henry in the backfield? Who replaces De’Von Achane’s rushing production?
Andrew Henry vs Aggies Rush Defense
After spending the previous two years at ULM, Andrew Henry entered the transfer portal looking for a fresh start. Landing at New Mexico, he is expected to pick up a good chunk of a workload as one of the lead backs for the Lobos.
He is a serviceable running back and is more than capable of gaining chunks at a time. Especially if the Aggies continue to struggle to defend the run as they finished last year 77th in Def Rush Success Rate.
Lucky for the Aggies, they have a massive edge in the trench and can stuff Henry in the backfield before he does his damage to their second level.
Next Man Up
The running back group for the Lobos isn’t the only rushing factor worth monitoring as the Aggies lost De’Von Achane to the NFL Draft. Achane finished last season rushing for 1,102 yards and eight touchdowns on 196 carries.
Both Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss are expected to split carries early in the year. They were underwhelming as backups to Achane last year, combining for 314 yards and one touchdown. While the Lobos rush defense is not ideal, Daniels and Moss have yet to strike fear in any opposing defenses hearts.