New Orleans Saints Super Bowl Odds 2022
There isn’t an NFL team that experienced a more significant loss in the offseason than the Saints as they said farewell to their longtime star quarterback and future Hall of Famer, Drew Brees. One of the best players in franchise history, Brees led the Saints to the playoffs in nine of fifteen seasons at quarterback, with one Super Bowl title coming in 2009.
Now, New Orleans will be looking to replace the legendary Brees with one of Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill, or perhaps both, as they undergo a proper training camp quarterback competition for the first time in quite some time. Even without Brees, the Saints still have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but will their quarterback play be consistent enough to spur a Super Bowl run?
The Saints bring back head coach Sean Payton, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who have been integral to the team’s successes over the past several years. The continuity in the coaching staff will be necessary for either Winston or Hill as the new starting quarterback. General manager Mickey Loomis also remains with the team as one of the best salary cap gymnasts in the game.
With hardly any flexibility coming into the offseason as one of the most cap-strung teams in football, the Saints had to let some key players go. Some veteran contributors wound up cap casualties, including wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, tight end Jared Cook, cornerback Janoris Jenkins, defensive tackles Malcolm Brown and Sheldon Rankins, edge defender Trey Hendrickson, and linebacker Alex Anzalone.
Due to those salary cap constraints mentioned, the Saints weren’t able to be very active in free agency. However, New Orleans retained linebacker Kwon Alexander, cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and P.J. Williams, safety Marcus Williams, and offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk in free agency. All of those retentions were very impressive in keeping one of the best rosters in football intact.
While the Saints had to let some key contributors walk in free agency due to their cap issues, I liked much of what they did in the draft. Defensive end Payton Turner is a natural replacement for Trey Hendrickson at defensive end and will compete with Marcus Davenport for a starting spot across from Cameron Jordan. Pete Werner is a likely Day 1 starter at Will linebacker. Paulson Adebo offers some solid secondary depth. With so many new starters, the addition of depth through the draft will be essential.
New Orleans Saints Team Future Odds
- Super Bowl Odds:
- To Win NFC:
- To Win NFC West:
- To Earn NFC #1 Seed:
- To Make Playoffs:
Saints Odds Analysis
Las Vegas has adjusted the odds for the Saints following the retirement of Drew Brees, and it will be interesting to see if Sean Payton’s group can succeed despite the loss of Brees. Last season, the Saints came into the year with a projected win total of 10.5 games. Now, Vegas has them landed at a win total of 7.5 games, tied with the Vikings, Chargers, Broncos, Washington, and Bears, all of whom lost to the Saints last season. Heading into last season, the Saints had Super Bowl odds of +1000, tied for the third-best in the NFL. Now, they have +4000 odds for the Super Bowl behind the Cowboys, Chargers, Dolphins, and Patriots, none of whom made the playoffs last year. While Drew Brees was solid last year when he played, he only saw the field in 12 games, and he wasn’t exactly a world-beater when he did play.
These new odds for the Saints feel like an over-correction by Las Vegas and one that might provide some value for bettors. New Orleans is currently listed at +114 to make the playoffs, which is a substantial value at plus money. Vegas has the Cowboys and Seahawks with slightly better odds to make the playoffs in the NFC. Of course, the Saints do play in the NFC South with the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, who return virtually every starter from last year, including Tom Brady. Tampa is a heavy favorite to win the NFC South at -200 while the Saints lag at +350. New Orleans is still ahead of Atlanta at +900 and Carolina at +1000 to win the NFC South. The Saints are the only team balanced and talented enough to give the Bucs some real issues in the division.
Reasons Why Saints Win Super Bowl
When picking a dark horse Super Bowl contender, I always look for a head coach who knows what it takes to win the big game. While Sean Payton only had the one Super Bowl title in 2009, he’s been on several deep playoff runs with a career 9-8 playoff record. While the upside of the Saints’ offense may be capped without Drew Brees, it should still be reasonably high-powered on the back of Alvin Kamara and hopefully Michael Thomas (more on him in a minute). If Thomas can get healthy for a playoff run, that would be a massive boost to the team’s chances. Jameis Winston probably gives this team more upside on offense than Taysom Hill, and with his LASIK surgery, perhaps his improved field vision will make him a more efficient passer. Winston has the arm talent to put the ball anywhere on the field, and this could be a resurgent season for him in Sean Payton’s offense.
Don’t sleep on Tayom Hill as a Swiss Army Knife for the offense, the first-choice starter when Drew Brees missed last season. While unconventional, a combination of these two could be the best path forward. New Orleans also has a stout defense – they were top five in both points and yards allowed last season. The secondary is still stacked with talent in Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Jenkins, Marcus Williams, and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. At the same time, Cameron Jordan leads a solid front seven along with Marcus Davenport, Demario Davis, and young linebackers Zack Baun and Pete Werner. Efficiency is the name of the game for the Saints on both ends of the ball, and despite some key offseason losses, this is still one of the most efficient and most talented rosters in football capable of a surprise deep playoff run.
Reason Why Saints Don’t Win Super Bowl
The Saints have been a very talented team over the past several seasons but has struggled to get over the hump even with Drew Brees. It seems like it would be doubtful that Brees’s retirement would be what pushes them over the top this season. The offense will go through some growing pains, and it certainly doesn’t help that Michael Thomas could be out until October or even November with his eye-opening issues with the team’s medical staff and front office as he recovers from ankle surgery. The Saints have minimal pass-catching outside of Alvin Kamara with Thomas out. If Winston led the NFL in interceptions with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, it makes me shiver to think about the potential volatility with Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway as the top receivers outside.
Taysom Hill may be the better choice for this reason, but that would cap the team’s upside as Hill’s inability to push the ball downfield and the lack of field-stretchers on the roster would allow defenses to stack the box frequently. Defensively, the Saints could also struggle to replace such starters as Trey Hendrickson, who led the team with 13.5 sacks, Malcolm Jenkins, who ranked second with 91 sacks, and Janoris Jenkins, who was one of the team’s top corners. Playing in a division with the defending Super Bowl champions doesn’t help the Saints’ case as the Buccaneers are loaded on both sides of the ball. New Orleans also has a somewhat difficult schedule this season as they face several playoff teams in the Packers, Washington, Seahawks, Buccaneers (twice), Titans, Bills, and a few could-be playoff teams in the Patriots, Dolphins, and Cowboys.
What the Buccaneers accomplished last year, winning the Super Bowl as a Wild Card team, has only been done a handful of times, and it’s difficult to imagine the Saints unseating Tampa in the NFC South with the combination of Winston and Hill at quarterback. New Orleans is in a fine spot moving forward, but they need to add more talent on offense to boost their upside to Super Bowl potential.
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