New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers NFL Player Props & Picks (9/25/22)
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New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Picks
In week 3 of the 2022 NFL season, the New Orleans Saints (1-1) travel to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers (0-2) on Sep. 25. The Saints are road favorites with a -2.5 spread and this is expected to be a low-scoring affair with an over/under set at 40.5. Panthers QB Baker Mayfield has struggled in his first two starts with his new team, while Saints QB Jameis Winston is dealing with four fractures in his back, so it’s not surprising that the expected total is on the low end. Let’s take a look at some player prop bets I like in this NFC South divisional matchup.
Christian McCaffrey over 98.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 on DraftKings)
McCaffrey has had a slow start to the season, with 67.5 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards per game, but he was much better in week 2, going for 102 rushing yards on 15 carries with 26 receiving yards on four catches. The Saints run defense led the league with only 3.7 yards allowed per carry last season, and they held Leonard Fournette to 2.7 yards/carry on 24 carries last week. McCaffrey had some success against them in week 2 last year, amassing 137 combined yards on 29 touches, and in seven career games against New Orleans, McCaffrey has averaged 99.2 combined yards per game. With Baker Mayfield struggling, I expect the Panthers to try to get McCaffrey going early and often, and with the expected volume, I feel confident betting the over on his combined yards. Since it’s hard to anticipate whether his volume will come on the ground or through the air, I like the combined over this week.
And no, I’m not worried about McCaffrey popping up on the injury report this week.
No need to worry about Christian McCaffrey 😂
“If I go to take a leak during practice, it’ll end up on the report.”
(🎥: @joshkleinrules)
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) September 22, 2022
D.J. Moore under 54.5 receiving yards (-115 on DraftKings)
D.J. Moore improbably has posted identical receiving stat lines in his first two games – three catches on six targets for 43 yards (although he only caught a touchdown in one of the two games). Some quick mental math tells me that’s an average of 43 receiving yards per game, and now he’s facing one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the Saints’ Marshon Lattimore. Mayfield has shown a better rapport with Moore’s running mate Robbie Anderson than he has with Moore, who only had two games with three or fewer catches all last season, and now has two such games in the first two weeks. That’s all I need to know to take the under on 54.5 receiving yards.
Speaking of Anderson, I kind of like the over on his receiving prop of 36.5 yards (-115 on DraftKings). He was only 4.5 yards off that number last week, and went for 102 in week 1 (thanks to a 75-yard TD catch). Considering the state of the Panthers offense and the matchup with a tough Saints defense, I am only taking the over on one Panthers player prop, and that’s McCaffrey above, but if you wanted to fade McCaffrey, I would turn my attention to Anderson.
Chris Olave over 39.5 receiving yards (-115 on DraftKings)
Jameis Winston has a nice trio of pass catchers in the finally healthy Michael Thomas, the apparently rejuvenated Jarvis Landry, and the speedy rookie Chris Olave. Through two games those three have posted very comparable stat lines:
Thomas – 17 targets, 11 catches, 122 yards
Landry – 14 targets, 11 catches, 139 yards
Olave – 16 targets, 8 catches, 121 yards
Knowing which receiver to pick can be tricky, but give me the guy with the lowest prop total in Olave (Landry’s is 40.5 and Thomas’ is 56.5). With his elite speed and route running, the former Ohio State Buckeye could eclipse that number on one play, and with Panthers CB Donte Jackson questionable for the game, he should face some softer coverage than Thomas. Olave received a team-high 13 targets in week 2, and with star running back Alvin Kamara questionable for the second straight week, the Saints may once again look to get Olave involved in the short passing game and give him some run-after-catch opportunities.
