New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFL Player Props & Picks (01/01/2023)

Get New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (01/01/2023) matchup.

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New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks

The New Year’s Day matchup between the New Orleans Saints (6-9) and the Philadelphia Eagles (13-2) may be lacking some of its star power, but there is still plenty of intrigue and some good value to be found when betting player props.

Eagles’ star quarterback Jalen Hurts is questionable for the game with a shoulder sprain that caused him to miss last week’s game against Dallas. Hurts returned to practice on Thursday but his status for the game remains doubtful. Meanwhile, Pro Bowl running back Miles Sanders unexpectedly popped up on the injury report on Wednesday, but was a limited practice participant on Thursday.

The Eagles need just one more win to clinch the NFC East division title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. If Hurts is able to play, they may want to lean on him to lock up that number one seed. If he can’t go, they should still be confident in backup Gardner Minshew.

For the Saints, star rookie wide receiver Chris Olave is questionable with a hamstring injury and star running back Alvin Kamara is questionable with a quadriceps injury. The Saints are already missing two of their top wide receivers in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, and would be severely undermanned if Olave and Kamara can’t play.

So with all of these stars potentially missing the game, where can we find some value when betting on play props?

Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Saints vs. Eagles matchup.

Andy Dalton under 200.5 passing yards (-114 at BetRivers)

The Eagles have arguably the best pass defense in the league, ranking 1st in DVOA and allowing the fewest yards per game and the fewest net yards gained per pass attempt in the league. They have allowed only two quarterbacks all season to hit the over on their passing yards prop, and Taylor Heinicke only hit the over by 0.5 yards in week 10.

The other quarterback to do it was Dak Prescott last week. Prescott torched the Eagles for 347 passing yards, including 24-for-24 for 300 yards when the Eagles played zone coverage. The Eagles lost nickel cornerback Avonte Maddox early in the game, after which CeeDee Lamb abused backup slot corner Josiah Scott.

Dalton is not as good as Prescott, and the Saints do not have a wide receiver the caliber of Lamb, so last week’s result does not scare me. After this week, it will look more like the exception than the rule.

Dalton has only hit the over four times in his 12 starts this season and is averaging just 207 passing yards per game. I do not expect him to hit his average against a passing defense as dominant as the Eagles, especially if Olave misses the game.

I would also be interested in betting the under on 1.5 touchdown passes and the over on 0.5 interceptions. Dalton has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of his 12 starts, as the Saints like to run the ball when they get into the red zone. He has thrown interceptions on 2.4% of pass attempts (23rd in the league), and the Eagles are tied for 2nd with 16 interceptions this season.

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Alvin Kamara under 62.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Kamara has been having a down year, but he’s still the most dangerous weapon the Saints have offensively, especially if Chris Olave misses another game with his hamstring injury. The Eagles know that and they are going to commit to stopping the run and forcing Dalton to try to beat them through the air.

Since reinforcing their run defense mid-season with the acquisitions of veteran defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Ndakumong Suh, the Eagles have been stout against the run. They haven’t allowed more than 64 rushing yards to a running back since week 12, including games against Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.

Kamara has rushed for 167 yards over the last two weeks, but he has only four games all season with over 62 rushing yards. Despite dealing with an injury this week, I do expect Kamara to get plenty of volume in this game, as the Saints don’t have much else offensively, which gives me some hesitation with this pick. However, the Saints’ offensive line is banged up and the Eagles’ defense has proven that it can eliminate the offense’s best weapon.

Game script may also force the Saints into more passing situations in this game, so the Saints may get Kamara his touches more through the air than on the ground. I like his chances to hit the over on 2.5 receptions, but I don’t expect him to do so on his rushing yards.

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DeVonta Smith over 58.5 receiving yards (-115)

Smith has been on a tear over the last six weeks. He is averaging 88.8 receiving yards per game over that span and has gone over 58 receiving yards in five of those games. He has also gained over 100 receiving yards in three of his last four games.

Smith had perhaps his best game of the season last week against Dallas despite catching passes from Minshew rather than Hurts. He showed the full arsenal – catching through contact, toe-tapping on the sideline, high pointing the ball, and my personal favorite, mocking the Cowboys with his Salvation Army celebration.

The Saints are strong against the pass, ranking 11th in DVOA and allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (behind the Eagles). However, starting safety Marcus Maye has already been ruled out, and their other starting safety, Justin Evans, is questionable for this game.

Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore has been out since week five with an abdominal injury and there is a chance he returns this week. He has been a limited practice participant all week, but that has been the case in previous weeks and he still ended up not playing.

If Lattimore does suit up, it’s likely he would primarily be covering A.J. Brown, leaving Smith to be covered by Bradley Roby or rookie Alontae Taylor. Smith has a clear advantage in either of those matchups, and should be a safe bet to hit the over on his receiving yards for the sixth time in seven games.

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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