New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/13/22)

Get New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers player prop picks & odds for the (11/13/22) matchup

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New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Picks

After getting trounced at home by the Ravens on Monday Night Football, the New Orleans Saints (3-6) have to turn around on a short week and travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (2-6), who are coming in fresh off a bye week. Still, the Steelers are slight home underdogs with +1.5 odds. This is expected to be a low-scoring affair with an over/under set at 40.5, the second lowest this week.

Even in a somewhat uninteresting, low-scoring affair, we can find some value to make some winning player prop bets. Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Saints vs. Steelers matchup.

Chris Olave over 62.5 receiving yards (-115)

Olave has been a target monster for the Saints in his rookie season, averaging nine per game for a healthy 23% target share. It doesn’t matter who is playing quarterback, they are looking Olave’s way. He has gone over 63 receiving yards in five of the six games in which he has played at least 60% of the snaps, and he was on the field for a season-high 90% of snaps last week.

The Steelers have struggled to defend the pass this season. They are allowing 277.3 passing yards per game, second most in the league, and their pass defense is 21st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. They have allowed an opposing wide receiver to catch at least 74 yards in every game this season and have allowed four 100-yard receiving games.

Not only am I taking the over on Olave’s receiving yards prop, but I am also looking at his alternate receiving yards prop lines. I like the +125 odds on 75+ receiving yards, and I am tempted by the +310 odds on a 100-yard game.

Kenny Pickett under 223.5 passing yards (-115)

The Saints’ defense has been stingy against the pass, allowing just 199.7 passing yards per game (9th in the league) and ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA. They have allowed only three quarterbacks to hit the over on their passing yards prop this season, and have held the other five well below Pickett’s line of 223.5.

Pickett has shown flashes in his four starts so far in his rookie season, and has gone over his passing prop in two of the three games he started and finished. The one he didn’t was against the Eagles’ second-ranked passing defense. He is averaging 258.3 passing yards per game in those three contests, and I expect him to play well against the Saints, especially after having an extra week to prepare and self-scout his first four career starts. But in a game that is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive game, even if he plays well and completes a high percentage of his passes, I don’t expect a high number of yards to follow.

Kenny Pickett under 0.5 interceptions (+135)

Let’s go against the grain a bit and chase the plus odds by taking Pickett to avoid throwing an interception in this game. This bet has plus odds because Pickett has thrown an interception in four of the five games he’s played in and has eight total on the season. He has been picked off on a league-high 4.8% of his pass attempts. However, those numbers are a bit deceiving as several of those interceptions were not his fault.

Despite being strong against the pass, the Saints have not been good at taking the ball away. They have only two interceptions so far this season, second-lowest in the league. They have also struggled to generate pressure with just a 17.5% pressure rate, fifth-lowest in the league.

What’s more likely to happen – a rookie quarterback coming off a bye week improves his ability to protect the football, or a defense on a short week improves its ability to create pressure and take the ball away? I like the chances on the former much better, especially when I’m getting plus odds on it.