Get New Orleans Saints Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers player prop picks & odds for the (12/5/22) matchup.
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New Orleans Saints Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks
On Monday Night Football, we’ll watch the Saints and Buccaneers renew hostilities in a game with massive implications for the crowded NFC South. Neither team has lived up to its preseason goals, but the playoffs are still within reach. In this article, I’ll cover my favorite player props for this primetime game. You can use the Saints vs. Buccaneers player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Chris Olave Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DraftKings)
While this is projected to be a lower-scoring game, the Buccaneers allowed a receiver to hit over 60 receiving yards in all but one game this season. That includes their prior matchup with the Saints where Chris Olave finished with five catches for 80 yards. That performance was buoyed by a 51-yard catch, and it was with Jameis Winston rather than Andy Dalton, but he saw 13 targets in that game.
That lofty target count hasn’t been too far out of the ordinary as Olave has averaged 8.9 targets per game since Week 1. He also ranked fourth in the NFL in air yards entering Week 13 behind only Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams. He’s in that type of territory in terms of productivity as he ranks sixth in the NFL in ESPN’s overall wide receiver score.
Olave only has one drop all season, and he’s top ten in both PFF grade and yards per route run among qualified receivers. He’s truly in elite territory already as a rookie. While Andy Dalton leaves some to be desired as a passer, he’s capable of delivering the ball to Olave, and this isn’t as bad of a matchup as it appears on the surface.
Tom Brady Under 271.5 Passing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
While the Saints’ defense has had an up and down season, they’re getting healthier down the stretch, and former All Pro cornerback Marshon Lattimore is expected to return for this game. The Saints have allowed just 176 passing yards per game over their last four. In addition, six straight opposing passers have gone under their listed yardage total against this defense.
Brady is averaging 277.4 passing yards per game this year, which is right in line with the number here, but the Saints have been his kryptonite. In five regular season games against New Orleans with the Buccaneers, he is averaging just 245.4 passing yards, and that’s buoyed by a 375-yard game last year. Take that out, and the average falls to 213 yards, including 190 yards earlier this season.
I have worn out of patience for the current Buccaneers’ coaching staff, and if there are weaknesses in the Saints’ defense, I don’t have faith in their ability to exploit them. In addition, the Bucs’ already weak offensive line just lost its best player in Tristan Wirfs. As a result, Brady will be under pressure here, and he won’t be able to complete frequent downfield passes.
Andy Dalton Under 221.5 Passing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
There’s nothing that catches my eye like the Olave and Brady props, and this prop obviously has negative correlation with the Olave receiving yardage prop. However, there are reasons to like the under for Andy Dalton in this game. He’s been under this number in three of his last four games, and that trend could continue.
Dalton has faced a relatively easy schedule, and the Buccaneers’ sixth-ranked pass defense by DVOA is the toughest test he’s faced all season. He’s faced four defenses that are above average in pass defense DVOA (Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, 49ers), and he’s averaging just 187.5 passing yards per game in those.
The Saints’ offense is further condensed in terms of targets with the absence of Juwan Johnson in this game. It’s Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and not much else. The Buccaneers have held five of their last seven opposing passers under this passing yardage number, and only two of eleven opposing passers have hit the over on their yardage prop all season.