New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Props (12/19/21)

The New Orleans Saints (6-7) travels to Tampa Bay to play their division rival Buccaneers (10-3) at Raymond James Stadium.  In their first meeting this year the Saints won the game 36-27.  Tampa Bay is an 11-point home favorite over New Orleans in week 15.  The Saints are 6-7 against the spread this season; 4-3 on the road.  New Orleans who beat the New York Jets, 30-9 in week 14 are 0-6 against the spread in their last six game following an against the spread win.  

Tampa Bay is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as a home favorite.

The Saints have struggled this season, especially on offense due to injuries and inconsistent play.  They’ve started three different quarterbacks this season and are ranked 23^rd in the NFL in total offense, 319.4 yards per game.  Triggered by Tom Brady, the Buccaneers lead the NFL in total offense (410.2), passing yards per game (314.2) and points per game (31.5).  

New Orleans Saints Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Search Tool

Alvin Kamara o/53.5 Rushing Yards

Alvin Kamara returned to the Saints lineup in week 14 against the Jets after missing the previous four games due to a knee injury.  In his return vs. New York, Kamara ran for 120 yards on 27 carries and a touchdown.  

The four-time Pro Bowler leads the Saints in rushing this season with 650 yards on 173 carries and four touchdowns: averaging 72.2 yards per game.  He’s had at least 20 carries in a game five times this season.  Kamara has rushed for over 100 yards two times this season.

In his last three games against Tampa Bay, he has rushed for 117 yards on 40 carries and three touchdowns: averaging 39 rushing yards per game.

The Buccaneers’ defense is allowing 91.2 rushing yards per game, ranking them third in the NFL.  Having fresh legs after missing four games, Kamara looked great against the Jets.  As the centerpiece of the Saints offense, I expect him to rush for approximately 60 yards thus going over 53.5 rushing yards.

Tom Brady u/301.5 passing yards

Tom Brady has lost all of three of his games to the Saints as a Buccaneer by a combined score of 108-53.  Against the rest of the NFL, he is 20-5 as the Tampa Bay quarterback.  

The New Orleans defense is allowing 244.5 passing yards per game, ranking them 18^th in the league.  The seven-time Super Bowl champion leads the NFL in passing yards (4,134), passing yards per game (318), touchdown passes (36) and QBR (67.8).  

In his last three games against New Orleans, the 22-year veteran has thrown for 823 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions; averaging 274.3 passing yards per game.

While Brady is still the best quarterback in football, he has struggled playing against the Saints; a lot of credit should go to New Orleans defensive coordinator Dennis Allen for disguising coverages and dialing up the pressure.  While I think Brady will play well this weekend, I see him throwing for close to 290 yards thus going under 301.5 passing yards.

Chris Godwin o/73.5 receiving yards

Chris Godwin has proven to be one of the best receivers in the NFL, he has the trust of the greatest player of all-time and has shown an ability to make big-time catches in important spots.

In 2021, Godwin has 92 catches for 1,054 yards and five touchdowns: averaging 81.1 receiving yards per game.  In his career, the fifth-year receiver out of Penn State has 336 receptions for 4,594 yards and 29 touchdowns: averaging 64.7 receiving yards per game in his career.

In his last three games against New Orleans, Godwin has 17 catches for 260 yards and one touchdown: averaging 15.3 yards per catch and 86.7 receiving yards per reception.  

Tampa Bay has had difficulty on offense against New Orleans over the past two seasons.   I still see Godwin, who’s sixth in the NFL in receiving yards to have about 85-90 yards receiving going over 73.5 receiving yards.