New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (11/4/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week: 8-2
All-Time Results: 62-54-1, +9.47 Units

Dallas Cowboys -6.5 @ New York Giants – 1 Unit

Dallas Cowboys -7 (+102) @ New York Giants – .1 Unit

Road Favorites Off a Bye Win 3 out of 5 ATS

Home teams went undefeated Straight Up & Against the Spread on Sunday, going a perfect 12-0.  That streak ends tonight.  Dallas dominates and avenges their loss to the Jets in their return to the Meadowlands.

The Cowboys are rested, healthy & ready coming off their Bye Week.

Last week, I made the point several times that road teams off a Bye have been dominant against the spread historically and even better the last five years.  Then, of course, the Browns, Bucs & Panthers all lose convincingly SU & ATS on the road immediately after their Bye Week.  Has something in the league changed?  Is the trend suddenly accounted for in the line? Did I just find noise and mistakenly interpret it as signal? Maybe.  I don’t think so.

Turns out since 1989, road teams off a Bye who are UNDERDOGS are exactly 50-50 ATS: 138-138-6.  However, road teams off a bye who are FAVORITES are an amazing 61% ATS since ’89: 100-63-1.

dallas cowboysThis trend makes a lot of sense to me.  The number one concern when betting on a road favorite is wondering whether they will be flat or overlook their opponents.  Home dogs often show up more focused & with greater intensity playing in a familiar environment and with their crowd behind them.  Road teams off a Bye Week, however, will rarely be flat because they have spent the last two weeks gearing up for this game.  Additionally, the travel disadvantage is almost entirely mitigated by the extra rest.

Cowboys Dominant in Division with Dak & Zeke

Dak Prescott & Ezekiel Elliott began their NFL careers with a loss at home to the New York Giants in their debut. Since then the Cowboys are 16-4 SU & 15-5 ATS against the NFC East, including 7-3 SU & ATS on the road.

Division games are often lower-scoring & closer, partly because the teams’ defenses are so familiar with the opponent.

My theory: The Cowboys are so good in the division because familiarity does not help you against Ezekiel Elliot.  You know what he’s going to do – you just can’t stop it.  Even if you do hit him at the line of scrimmage, you fall backward for 4 yards.  Again, and again. Eventually, Dak kills you over the top with play action.  Rinse, repeat.

The Cowboy’s dominance over their division rivals has increased steadily over the Dak & Zeke era. They have won 11 of their last 12 SU & ATS against the NFC East, often in dominant fashion like the 37-10 debacle in Arlington against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. Their average ATS margin over this span is +8.8.

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Cowboys Win & Ezekiel Elliot Scores (-177) @ New York Giants – .177 Units

dallas cowboysEzekiel Elliot has scored in 10 of his last 11 football games.  The lone exception came this year when he never got into the end zone sharing carries with rookie Tony Pollard during the Cowboys blowout win over the Dolphins.

What’s kind of crazy is that during this streak Elliot has not had a game with multiple touchdowns.  I almost wish there was a bet that Elliot would score exactly 1 touchdown.

When the Cowboys get in a goal-line scenario Elliot is an obvious threat.  The Cowboys vary their play-calling in the red zone, employing Elliot as a decoy just as often as they use him as a battering ram.

With the Giants struggling so mightily in their secondary, I expect them to guard heavily against the pass and hope their defensive front can hold up without additional support.  Cowboys Offensive Coordinator Kellen Moore will not have to overthink this one  He can simply let his now healthy offensive line & the best back in the league punch it in from close range.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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