New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Player Props & Picks (10/23/22)

Get New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars player prop picks & odds for the (10/23/22) matchup

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New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks

The surging New York Giants (5-1) travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars (2-4) on Sunday, October 23. The Giants have defeated two perennial playoff teams in the last two weeks (Packers, Ravens), while the Jaguars have suffered a three-game losing streak after starting the season 2-1. Nevertheless, the Jaguars are 3-point favorites at home in this contest, with an over/under set at 42.5.

Saquon Barkley’s resurgence has been the key to the Giants’ hot start. He is 2nd in the league in rushing and leads all players in yards from scrimmage with 128.5 per game. Can Barkley have another stellar game against Jacksonville’s 3rd-ranked run defense?

Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like in this Giants vs. Texans matchup.

Saquon Barkley over 76.5 rushing yards

To pay off the above question, yes, Barkley can have another stellar game despite the tough matchup with Jacksonville. His overall numbers are slightly inflated by 164- and 146-yard outbursts, but Barkley has still been very consistent this season. He has exceeded this week’s prop line of 76.5 rushing yards in four of his six games (and he rushed for 72 and 70 in the other two).

The biggest risk with this pick is that the Giants might choose to use Barkley more in the passing game as opposed to the running game in this matchup. While Jacksonville is stout against the run, they are 31st in the league against running backs in the passing game. Opposing running backs are averaging 55.3 receiving yards on 7.8 receptions per game against them. As I’m writing this, there is no receiving prop line or rushing plus receiving prop line available for Barkley, but if one comes out that might be the more attractive bet compared to his rushing yards.
Regardless, I like Barkley to continue his hot start to the season with another big game in this matchup.

Travis Etienne Jr. over 47.5 rushing yards

Travis Etienne Jr. has been slowly taking over the Jaguars’ lead back duties after James Robinson got off to a strong start to the season. Etienne Jr. has out-snapped Robinson for three straight weeks and outgained him on the ground 189-110 during that span (on two fewer carries).

Etienne Jr. rushed for 71 yards and 86 yards in his last two games and now he gets to face the Giants’ 28th-ranked run defense that is allowing a league-high 5.6 yards per carry. Etienne is sixth among running backs this season with a 5.6 yards per carry average, and if he keeps that up he needs only 8-9 carries to surpass his prop line of 47.5. Everything from recent usage to expected game script indicates he should get more than enough volume to hit that number.

Evan Engram over 29.5 receiving yards

I’m going back to the well with this pick after hitting the over on Engram’s receiving yards last week. Part of my analysis last week was that the Colts were allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers but were 22nd at defending tight ends. Well, the Giants are allowing the second-fewest receiving yards to opposing wide receivers (119.2 per game) but are 24th at defending tight ends (59.2 yards per game).

Engram is averaging 34.7 receiving yards per game and has exceeded 29.5 receiving yards three times in six games (with another game at 28 yards). Over the last two weeks he is averaging 54.5 yards and has been Trevor Lawrence’s go-to guy with a team-high 16 targets (24% target share).

Add in the fact that he has a little extra motivation this week against his former team, and I like the formula for picking the over again this week on Engram’s receiving yards.