Jets Odds to Win Super Bowl 2021
Jets Odds to Win Super Bowl: +7000
Jets Win Total: 6.5
Jets Odds to Win Division: +750
Jets Odds to Win Conference: +3700
Jets Odds Analysis
The Jets rallied down the stretch of the 2019-20 season to finish with a record of 7-9 despite a brutal 1-7 start. Of course, the losing record saw them fall short of the playoffs for the ninth consecutive season. Sportsbooks are predicting little to no improvement for the Jets this season. The team’s win total is set at just 6.5, among the five lowest in the AFC. The Jets’ Super Bowl LV odds of +7000 tie with Carolina for the 26th longest odds among the 32 NFL teams.
When it comes to Jets futures betting for the 2020-21 season, even if the team blows past expectations, it is very hard to envision them putting together a Super Bowl run. With the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, and Pittsburgh Steelers atop the AFC, I’m not rushing to back the Jets to win the conference at +3700 either. Where things get interesting is when it comes to betting on an AFC East Division winner.
AFC East Betting Analysis
Depending on which sportsbook you use, the New England Patriots or Buffalo Bills will be listed as the division favorite. At FanDuel, New England gets the nod at +120 with Buffalo just behind at +130. The Jets at +750 and the Miami Dolphins at +900 aren’t seen as real threats to the division crown, but there’s no arguing that both teams drastically improved this offseason. With Tom Brady departing from the Patriots in free agency, the division has never been more wide open.
The Bills are the trendy AFC East pick, but it is worth noting that the team’s strong 2019-20 showing was aided by a soft schedule. Speaking of schedules, no AFC East team has an easy road ahead of them this season, given that they play every team in the loaded AFC and NFC West divisions. The Jets themselves have the 2nd-toughest strength of schedule based on win percentages from last season.
The pressure will be on to make hay against divisional opponents. Quite frankly, there is nothing that makes me think the Jets will be outclassed by either the Patriots or Bills on the field. I have the three teams being much closer than the betting market predicts. With such tough opponents outside of the division, it is conceivable that the AFC East champ could only finish with 10 or even 9 wins. That type of scenario could play right into the Jets’ hands. A Week 1 matchup against the Bills in Buffalo provides the perfect opportunity to get off on the right foot while setting a primary contender back.
Jets Offseason and Draft
New York quietly had one of the best offseasons of any team in the NFL. The decision to retain Adam Gase as head coach has turned a lot of people away, but he and GM Joe Douglas managed to address each of the team’s gaping needs.
The offseason work began with a prioritization of the offensive line during free agency. With Brian Winters as the only O-line Week 1 starter from last season still under contract when the offseason began, the Jets knew they would need to fill sign in volume. At the same time, they had to attempt to improve a unit that ranked 31st in run blocking efficiency last year, according to Football Outsiders. Douglas brought in center Connor McGovern, tackle George Fant, guard Greg Van Roten and guard/center Josh Andrews. He also resigned guard Alex Lewis. The Jets completed their offensive line overhaul by drafting tackle Mekhi Becton No. 11 overall in the NFL Draft.
The Jets’ wide receiver corps also experienced significant turnover in the offseason. The team opted not to retain speedy deep threat Robby Anderson, sufficiently replacing him in the draft with Denzel Mims. New York also signed Breshad Perriman in free agency. Combined with slot man Jamison Crowder, the Jets undoubtedly upgraded at the position. The moves should help Sam Darnold take the next crucial steps in his progression as an NFL quarterback.
The Jets signed a pair of free agent cornerbacks in Pierre Desir and Quincy Wilson, and also selected Bryce Hall in the draft. Hall is a player many believe has the potential to be a fifth-round steal. They brought back corner Brian Poole, and linebackers Jordan Jenkins and Neville Hewitt. The biggest departure was linebacker Brandon Copeland who signed with the Patriots. C.J. Mosley might as well be considered a newcomer in his own right after missing all but a few games to a groin injury last year. There could still be more changes coming to the secondary before the season. Contract negotiations with Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams have reportedly stalled, causing his name to be floated in trade discussions. Corner Marcus Maye has also been the subject of trade talks, and the Jets have been in the hunt for free agent corner Logan Ryan as well.
Notable Depth Moves
The Jets also welcomed a couple of NFL veterans to the team in quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Frank Gore. Both are expected to operate in-depth rolls behind Darnold and Le’Veon Bell respectively. The Jets added a pair of rookies at both positions in the draft as well in James Morgan and Lamical Perine.
– Run Defense
– Dynamic and Explosive Wide Receivers
– Improved Secondary
– Improved Offensive Line
– Lack of Pass Rush
– Inconsistent Quarterback Play
– Poor Coaching/Play Calling
– Brutal Schedule
The Super Bowl is not in the realistic realm of possibilities this year, but the Jets are a team poised to surprise in 2020. The team had a terrific offseason, doing well to fill so many glaring holes and retain many key contributors.
The schedule is a brutal one, but the same can be said for each of the Jets’ AFC East rivals. I simply don’t see the separation between division favorites Buffalo and New England and the Jets being worthy of such a disparity in betting odds.
It’s not a lock by any means, but I like the value in the Jets to win the AFC East division at +750 odds. You can always look for hedging opportunities during the season, especially if things go up in smoke early.
Looking to back the Jets but skeptical of their chances within the division? Taking the over on 6.5 wins and/or a bet on the team to make the playoffs in any form (division winner or wild card) at +360 are other potential wager options.
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