While it is not the most exciting game on the slate, find Jets Vs. Browns player prop odds and picks.
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New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Picks
I can’t imagine many people will be excited to bet on player props in the Jets vs. Browns game, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the market. With a points total set at 39, I see most of the value in this game on unders. You can find an analysis of this game in our matchup preview and best bets article if you’re interested in taking a side. In this article, I’ll analyze the best player prop values on the board for this game.
Jacoby Brissett Under 195.5 Passing Yards
Jacoby Brissett struggled mightily in Week 1. He completed just 52.9% of his passes and averaged a league-worst 4.3 yards per attempt on his way to just 147 yards. It’s clear what the Browns’ plan is for the time being – rely on their run game and defense to keep them in games until Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension.
The Browns don’t have much in the way of exciting pass-catching talent beyond an inconsistent Amari Cooper and overpaid David Njoku, and they don’t have any obvious YAC threats on the roster who can make something out of nothing. Brissett isn’t the type of quarterback who can elevate this team’s receiving corps.
The Jets’ defense played quite well in Week 1 as they allowed a dropback success rate of just 42.9% against Lamar Jackson, the tenth-lowest rate in the league. Quinnen Williams, John Franklin-Myers, and Carl Lawson each had three pressures, and they should be able to put enough heat on Brissett to limit his time in the pocket.
Amari Cooper Longest Reception Under 19.5 Yards
Adding onto the Brissett prop, I like the under on Cooper’s props across the board. However, my favorite bet for Cooper is on the under for his longest reception. Cooper’s longest catch in Week 1 was just nine yards as Brissett didn’t air the ball out whatsoever – he only attempted two passes over 20 yards in the game, and they were both tracked as turnover-worthy plays by PFF.
D.J. Reed Jr. and Sauce Gardner combined to allow just one reception on 70 coverage snaps, and PFF graded Reed as the best cornerback in the league in Week 1. Regardless of which corner Cooper is matched up against, he will likely find it difficult to generate enough separation to make Brissett comfortable to push the ball downfield.
In a game with a projected low over-under, I don’t see a scenario where the Browns are playing from behind and needing to air the ball out. They will employ a conservative approach and emphasize their rushing offense, and that plays directly into a narrative that won’t allow for Cooper to come up with any explosive receiving plays.
Corey Davis Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Corey Davis led all Jets’ wideouts in Week 1 with nine targets, which was a 16% share. He also led the team with 112 air yards, which was 40% of the team’s total and ranked eighth in the NFL. While I would expect Garrett Wilson to infringe on that opportunity for Davis as the year goes on, it might not happen right away.
Davis has now averaged 4.7 catches for 68.3 yards per game in three career outings with Joe Flacco as his quarterback, and they’ve come against difficult opponents in the Bills, Dolphins, and Ravens. While the Browns have a strong secondary, it’s not enough to scare me off what the numbers are showing.
My biggest concern with this game is that Corey Davis could see a good deal of coverage from Denzel Ward on the perimeter while Elijah Moore draws Greg Newsome in the slot. Still, Davis ran 45 routes to Garrett Wilson’s 37 in Week 1, and I expect him to be the WR2 in this offense for the time being. I’ll bet on him producing again this week.