New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns Week 2 (9/16/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week: 7-4
All Time Results: 7-4, +3.48 Unit

Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-110) @ New York Jets – .5 Units

Cleveland Browns -1 (-125) @ New York Jets – .5 Units

If you’re looking for a strong play for tonight’s Monday Football Contests, you can find my best bet on the Texans +7 here.

Today, I’m looking at yesterday’s results from Week 1 and identifying my best early bet for next week’s slate.

I like the Browns to bounce to back and beat the pitiful Jets next week on MNF.

cleveland brownsEach of these high profile teams suffered one of the worst losses of Week 1. One got embarrassed, the other lost a heartbreaker. Give me the team that got embarrassed to turn it around.  Among other reasons, the public tends to overreact to lopsided results.

The underlying statistics suggest Cleveland was much closer to Tennessee than the hideous final score suggests. The Browns lost by 30, but only lost the Yards Per Play battle by -0.6.

The final score looked so bad because the Browns repeatedly shot themselves in the foot.  After not throwing interceptions in 110 straight pass attempts, Baker Mayfield threw 3 in short order in the second half Sunday, trying to claw his team back into the contest against a game and well coached Titans’ squad. Additionally, Cleveland wracked up a shocking 182 penalty yards on 18 penalties.

Being built up all summer, the Browns did not respond well to their new roles as big home favorites. Since the franchise restarted, the Browns are now 1-19-1 in week 1 of the NFL season. They folded in this spot – which no doubt looks bad on their coach and long term prospects – but I don’t think their power ranking should take a major blow based on this one data point. Sometimes these things happen. Penalties and turnovers do not generally repeat themselves on a week to week basis. Play for play – they weren’t that much worse than the Titans yesterday.

Conversely, the Jets were outgained by 2.5 yards per play in their narrow loss vs. the Bills. Teams that are +3 in turnovers where 1 is returned for a Touchdown generally win >98% of the time, including going 18-0 last year. Not these Jets. They found a way to be the exception.

The +7 turnover differential between these teams in the Jets favor largely skews how much worse their performance was in comparison to the Browns.

Former Ravens linebacker, CJ Mosley had been the Jets best player before his groin injury. His Pick-6 was the only scoring in the game in the first half. After he left the game, the Jets defense gave up 17 points in 19 minutes.  His status for Week 2 is currently uncertain – I want to get this bet in before he’s announced out, when this line might move up to -3 in favor of Cleveland.

Cleveland has only been a road favorite 11 times in their franchise history. They’ve been surprisingly successful in the rare role for the organization: 8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS.

Jets will try out kickers this week, after Kaare Vedvik missed an extra point and a field goal in their narrow loss. I like the chances of whomever the Jets choose, falling victim to nerves on MNF in their first game with the team. If they chose to stay the course with Vedvik – I like the chances he continues to falter even better.  One missed field goal could be huge in a game with such a narrow spread.

Baker Mayfield went 2-0 SU & ATS last year in Primetime games last year, including his nearly perfect debut against these Jets. Conversely, Adam Gase is 2-5 SU & ATS for his career as a HC in Primetime. Jets have lost their last 4 MNF games at home.

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Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets Over 46.5 – .1 Units

new york jetsAdam Gase led teams have given up 40+ in 4 of his 7 career primetime games.  The Jets defense may miss CJ Mosley, their best defensive player from week 1.  The Bills moved the ball rather effectively against the Jets despite not scoring for the first 45 minutes of the game due to turnovers.

The Browns defense just gave up three passing touchdowns to Marcus Marriota.

The Over is 6-2 when Sam Darnold starts for the Jets at home, & is on a 10-5 run in Jets home games overall.

The Over is 4-3 when Baker Mayfield starts for the Browns on the road & is on an 11-7 run in Browns road games overall.

I like this one to get out of hand, possibly causing the Jets to unleash Sam Darnold’s throwing arm early in the game.  Prediction: Browns 34, Jets 17.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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