New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins (11/3/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week: 2-1
All-Time Results: 56-53-1, +9.48 Units

Miami Dolphins +3.5 vs. New York Jets – .25 Units

Miami Dolphins +6 (-180) vs. New York Jets  – .18 Units

The perpetrator always returns to the scene of the crime.  New York Jets HC, Adam Gase, lasted only three years as the Miami Dolphins lead administrator and left that team without any wins or winners on which to build.  At this point in his New York tenure, he looks unfit for the “next upcoming mind” moniker that Peyton Manning gave him when they went to a Super Bowl together in 2013.

miami dolphinsFor all the potential excuses for the Jets poor play, the most legitimate curveball seemed to be their #1 Overall Draft-Pick worthy, Future Franchise QB having a serious illness. (Said with a straight face).  After their win vs. Dallas, the franchise had a model opportunity for a reset.  Play .500 ball or better the rest of the season and one could reasonably argue the Jets prospects would be their highest point since Mark Sanchez. (Again).

Everything sounded great.  Then, they played some more football.  Against the Patriots, Jets QB Sam Darnold confessed to a childish bewilderment at the hands of their rivals defensive schemes.  Darnold was not the savior to a poor Jets offense, now ranked 32nd by Football Outsiders.

Next, Jaguars QB, Gardner Minshew carved up their vaunted defense as if he were Joe Montana.  Their defense played well the first three-quarters of their Week 1 matchup against Buffalo – which really doesn’t say a whole a lot.  And then after their 2nd best linebacker – their best linebacker was already on IR to start the season – C.J. Mosley went down with an injury and the Jets gave up 17 points to lose the lead in the final frame.  For weeks – just like with Darnold – the New York market expected a major uptick in the defense once Mosley got back.  And it happened!  The Jets defense looked great…for about a half of a quarter before Mosley went out again.  Without him, the Jets gave up 61 points to the Patriots and Jaguars.

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Miami Dolphins -2 (+180) vs. New York Jets  – .1 Units

The Jets will miss LB C.J. Mosley on the field.  More importantly, they may feel deflated by his absence in their preparation.  The story of the team changes without their best defensive player.  The belief in their own ceiling falls.  Teams can be the last one to recognize the reality of their season.  When they do, it’s crushing.

Conversely, the Dolphins may finally have license to win.

For one, with all their trades, many of their starters may never get their chance for the rest of their lives.  They may prove themselves to be Terrell Davis Esque Diamonds in the rough – now given a previously hard to imagine opportunity.  At the very least, they will try like hell.

Secondly, the #1 pick in the 2020 Draft is no longer that valuable.  Tua Tungavolia is still the favorite to be the #1 overall pick.  But his odds are dropping – from -300 to -150 – as it has become unclear whether he has separated himself from his future draft mates, like LSU’s Joe Burrow (+200) & Oregon’s Justin Herbert (+600).

Maybe for the first time all season, Miami can afford to win.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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