We are inching closer to the regular season, and win totals have dropped for each NFL team. This is a nice indicator to see where your team is predicted to finish, but this is also a chance to find some betting value. You will generally find win totals close to 2018-19 wins, but there are some teams with huge differences. For example, the Jets are expected to make a major jump after a four win season. Their 2019 total is set at 7.5. A four win increase for this team is pretty steep. The Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, and Saints all make up the top 2019 win totals after rounding out the conference championships from last season. Unless a substantial injury occurs, these win totals should remain consistent. FanDuel Sportsbook has listed their win totals for the 2019 season, and you can find them in the table below.
Denver Broncos Under 7 Wins (-115)
Coming off a six win season, it is no surprise to see the Denver Broncos with a win total set at seven. The Broncos have to deal with four games against the Chiefs and Chargers. Both are predicted to be double-digit win teams this season. Looking at the Denver schedule for this season, they kick things off on the road against Oakland on the MNF doubleheader. This isn’t a gimme win on the road, but it is the easiest game of the first few weeks. Playing the NFC North and drawing road games against the Colts, Bills, and Texans are not easy games. I would say they have four winnable games where I would lay money on them that week. Outside of that they are in toss up games where they will be underdogs, or heavy underdogs. Denver also gives up a true home game going to London.
The quarterback play doesn’t suggest an improvement in wins. Joe Flacco and Drew Lock will both have some starts this season, and Flacco’s upside is capped while Lock will likely endure growing pains as a rookie. This team will likely remain geared more towards running the ball and hoping the defense can keep opposing teams in check. The defense is still solid, but the schedule of offenses on the horizon is going to be a tough task for this Broncos defense. This was the first under that stood out right away
Atlanta Falcons Over 8.5 Wins (-135)
The Atlanta Falcons had some terrible luck on the defensive side last season, which resulted in a seven win season. This was coming after a 2017 season where they won 10 games and 2016 where they won 11. I am looking for a Falcons rebound. They still have one of the best offensive cores in football, and there is a lot to like about their schedule after the first few weeks. 13 of their 16 games are going to be in domes, where this offense has thrived. Yes, they will have to deal with Minnesota, Indy, and Philadelphia out of the gate, but this is a team that can compete with the NFC’s best. They close out the year in a different fashion. They will have four of six at home, taking on only one playoff team in that span. Atlanta will also have a majority of their tougher games at home. Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Seattle will all be at home.
If Ricardo Allen, Deion Jones, and Keanu Neal can come back full strength, then this team looks excellent on paper. Atlanta had five one possession losses last season, and really could have pushed for a better record. While this is one of the tougher divisions with Carolina looking to bounce back, the Falcons won all but two games last season against divisional opponents. The only two losses were against the Saints. With everyone coming back in better health, things look bright.
Detroit Lions Under 6.5 Wins (+110)
The NFC North has three teams with a nine or higher win total. The Detroit Lions are not one of them. While many are not high on Detroit, they will not be as bad as everyone expects. However, this will not translate to wins. Playing Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago a total of six times is a brutal way to go about a season. When you factor in games against the Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, and Cowboys for out of division games, things get really rough. Road games against the Cardinals, Raiders, Redskins, and Broncos are also not winnable games by any means. I still have major doubts about this offense putting up enough points to get by, especially with their recipe to run the ball as much as possible.
The defense is the positive of this group, but carrying out wins in close games and against teams they should win against has been as well. This is where I have doubts that they take advantage of the games they should win on paper. Especially if most of those games are on the road. While Detroit has won 11, 7, 9, 9, and 6 games over the last five seasons, it is tough seeing them pull out more than six this year again.
Cincinnati Bengals Under 6 Wins (-130)
I wish this was sitting at 6.5, but I am still looking at the Cincinnati Bengals to have a down year. The defense and offensive line are not in a position to make strides after a below average season. They addressed issues through the draft, but they saw one offensive lineman retire, and another go down for the season. Defensively they haven’t put together a strong group, which spells trouble for the new year. It is hard to predict any sort of injuries, but the Bengals have had key injuries over the last few seasons. Cincinnati finished 4th in the division, and the last time that happened it was in 2010. With the rest of the division getting better, the Bengals might be down here for a while. An aging A.J. Green and inconsistent Andy Dalton will have a tough schedule for about half the year. Joe Mixon will have to deal with another horrendous offensive line, and that leads us to have questions about the offense.
Cincinnati will open 2019 on the road in three of their first four games. They will also come off the bye week facing Baltimore, at Oakland, Pittsburgh, New York, at Cleveland, and home against New England. I do not love the Bengals in divisional games, and they struggled last season going 1-5.
Arizona Cardinals Over 5 Wins (-120)
There is certainly some hype building around the Arizona Cardinals. They made big moves through the draft, and tooled up on offensive side. They also added Jordan Hicks and Terrell Suggs to the defense. We will all be watching Kyler Murray try and lead this offense that is now being called by Kliff Kingsbury. His offensive history in college can hopefully transition into the pros. There is a real chance that the Cardinals can take some toss up games. This team is in much better shape even with the new names coaching and playing. With the offensive line being in the state that it is in, Murray’s mobility is a plus. The receiving core around him was improved through the draft, but Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk will still lead the way. A more efficiently utilized David Johnson is also in store for 2019-20.
You are going to look at the schedule and find an iffy one to get to six wins. There are winnable games, especially at home. They open up against the Lions at home, but will be home three of the first four games. Their road games at Cincinnati, New York, and Tampa Bay are not all that scary either. Seattle is a regression team, and while they may lose two to the Rams, there is a chance to split with the rest of the division. Arizona could also face a second string Rams team in Week 17. Three divisional wins is a reasonable projection, and if they can steal a few games the Cardinals will pay off.