NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends
And then there were four. This Sunday the 49ers, Eagles, Chiefs, and Bengals will all battle it out to stamp for a chance to play in Super Bowl LVII. For the first time in 45 years, no team is over +200 to win in the Conference Championship round. As for who will move one, let’s take a look at some historical trends that may provide some insight into where their might be an edge.
49ers vs Eagles Betting Trends
- Brock Purdy is the fifth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game with the previous four failing to win straight up
- No rookie starting quarterback has ever made the Super Bowl
- Jalen Hurts has proven to beat playoff level teams, going 6-0 SU this year against teams who made the playoff
- The Eagles are the eighth team to play their fourth home game in a row in the Conference Championship. Previous teams went 6-1 SU
- The previous two times the Eagles have won 13 or more games in the regular season, they have made it to the Super Bowl. They went 1-1 SU in those Super Bowl appearances
The Eagles earned the right to be number one, cruising through the season with a dominant record. They boast one of the best offensive lines in football while Jalen Hurts has taken a much needed leap in production. They are not without flaws though, flaws that the 49ers are more than capable of exploiting.
For instance, the Eagles have struggled to contain the run. Especially when opposing running backs get to the second level, burning opposing secondaries for explosive runs. The 49ers have built an offensive identity on the ground game with star players Christian McCaffery and Deebo Samuel both capable of finding consistent success on the ground.
The rookie trends are a major area of concern as history says this is where the success of Brock Purdy comes to a halt. He has also found himself in a pretty generous situation as the opposing defenses he has gone against has ranked 20th in Def DVOA since he started under center.
Still, the 49ers are expected to continue on their conservative approach that relies on limiting their own Havoc and sustaining down field drives. Wait for a +3 to hit the market before backing the 49ers.
The Bet: Wait on a 49ers +3 to hit the market
Bengals vs Chiefs Betting Trends
- Six playoff games have seen a team open as a favorite and close as an underdog since 2010. Those teams have gone 5-1 SU
- Joe Burrow is 3-0 SU and ATS against Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs
- Burrow is 15-2 SU in his last 17 games against teams that are 0.500
- Bengals have covered nine straight games in a row as underdogs
- Mahomes is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS at home in his playoff career
- Chiefs may be the 10th home underdog in the conference title game ith the previous nine going 4-5 SU
Patrick Mahomes may finally get his revenge on the Bengals after losing in last year’s AFC Conference Championship game. It won’t come easily, however, given concerns surrounding Patrick Mahomes and a high ankle sprain he sustained during the first half in the Chiefs’ divisional round game against the Jags.
In light of his injury news, this has brought down the Bengals from a +3 underdog to a -1.5 favorite. Though that number has ticked back down a tad, this is poised to end around a pick’em pending on the injury status of Mahomes.
The Bengals are not without injury concern either, losing three of their starting offensive lineman and lacking depth at the line. They greatly benefited from playing in the snow against the Bills, giving advantage to their footing while the Bills struggled to generate any sort of pressure to the backfield. They wont have that benefit in this one, bringing intrigue to how they will hold up against the Chiefs defensive line.
Speaking of the Chiefs defense, they are once again a below average unit and are in serious trouble against the Bengals pass attack. Should they not be able to generate consistent pressure against the Bengals backup offensive lineman, then Burrow will have ample opportunity to burn the Chiefs secondary with one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.
Monitor the line movement as it has bounced up and down and take the Bengals on the moneyline at the best juice that you can find.
The Bet: Bengals ML