NFL Conference Championship Odds: Opening Lines And Movement
The stage is set for the NFC and AFC championship games this weekend, and the point spreads and totals are up for both contests. The latest conference championship odds have the Philadelphia Eagles favored ahead of their third matchup against the Washington Commanders, at 3 p.m. ET this Sunday, and the Kansas City Chiefs are slight favorites versus the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game at 6:30 p.m.
Below, we break down the opening lines with a report on any initial movement at sportsbooks. We’ll also highlight some trends that can help you when placing bets at your favorite sportsbook apps.
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Opening NFL Conference Championship Odds
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia Eagles -31.5 (-110) on Caesars
- The Eagles opened as 4.5-point favorites Sunday night and were bet up to 5.5-point favorites by Monday morning, with the Commanders jumping from +190 to +225 on the moneyline. The total shifted down from 48.5 to 47.5 points in that same time frame. If this game follows the same trend as last week when the Eagles garnered most of the action as home favorites, they could close as favorites of six or 6.5 points.
- When the Eagles hosted the Commanders in a Thursday Night Football matchup to begin Week 11, they were four-point favorites and covered with a late Saquon Barkley touchdown in a 26-18 win. Philly again closed as a four-point favorite at Washington in Week 16 but suffered a 36-33 loss as Jalen Hurts departed early with a concussion. Hurts appeared to suffer a knee injury during a divisional round win over the Rams in which he took seven sacks, including a safety. He’s only averaging 17.7 completions per game with 12 sacks over his last three playoff starts. Jayden Daniels has continued to shine in the playoffs, with the Commanders covering in both games as underdogs.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas City Chiefs +0 (-110) on Caesars
- The Chiefs covered as 8.5-point favorites against the Texans and are now 7-1 against the spread over their last eight playoff games. The number is virtually irrelevant in the third meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the playoffs, with the Chiefs giving 1.5 points at home, and that spread hasn’t shifted in 24 hours since opening. The Bills did shift from +100 to +110 on the moneyline at some books, and the total has dipped from 49 points at opening to 47.5.
- When these teams met in the AFC championship last year, the Chiefs covered a 2.5-point spread in a 27-24 win. The Bills dominated time of possession (37:03) but decisively lost the battle in yards per play, with Allen averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt. Kansas City’s 42-36 overtime win over the Bills in the 2022 divisional round led the NFL to change its overtime rules for the postseason, allowing each team a chance to possess the ball. Since 2022, Buffalo is 25-4 straight up at home and 15-10 on the road, with a 4-4 mark ATS and straight up as an underdog.