NFL Divisional Round Opening Lines and Movement

NFL wild card weekend is still wrapping up, with the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings set to tangle Monday night in Arizona. However, sportsbooks have set the odds for every divisional round game next weekend, including the two hypothetical matchups between the Philadelphia Eagles and the winner of Monday’s game. 

The schedule opens Saturday with the Houston Texans visiting the Kansas Chiefs at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Washington Commanders at the Detroit Lions at 8 p.m. ET. The Eagles host their divisional round game at 3 p.m. ET Sunday, followed by a spicy matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the visiting Baltimore Ravens at 6:30 p.m. ET. 

Below, we break down the opening odds for NFL divisional round games with a look at any key injury news and analysis of how these lines could shift throughout the week. We’ll also highlight some trends that can help you when placing bets on your favorite sportsbook apps

NFL Divisional Round Opening Lines 

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

  • The two-time defending Super Bowl champs emerge from almost two weeks off for the divisional round since they rested key starters in Week 18. The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites but have moved up to -8.5 at some books with the market settling initially around an eight-point spread. The Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 at home in Week 16. Tank Dell (leg) was lost for the season in that game. Houston has found success rushing the passer and running the ball in consecutive wins, but the Chiefs allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (96.5) at home this season. Kansas City has struggled to cover big spreads over the past three seasons, with an 11-14-1 mark against the number as home favorites, but it’s 6-1 ATS in playoff games during that span. The total has dipped a bit from opening at 43.5 points to 41.5 or 42 points. 

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions

  • The Commanders opened as 10-point underdogs at some books, and that was quickly bet down to +8.5 across the industry. Jayden Daniels continued to show poise beyond his years with 304 passing and rushing yards to lead Washington in a wild card win at Tampa Bay. Washington’s defense struggled to stop the run at times throughout the season, which is certainly an area of concern against Detroit’s top-rated rushing attack. The Lions have been the most successful team against the spread in NFL history over the past three seasons with a 36-15 record since 2022, although they’re a more moderate 11-8 ATS as home favorites over the past two seasons. The total has crept up from 54.5 to 55.5 points. 

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

  • While the Ravens destroyed the Bills by a score of 35-10 in a Sunday Night Football home game in Week 4, this line has opened around a pick’em with the Bills giving 1.5 points at some books. Buffalo was missing a few key defensive players in that first matchup, and Khalil Shakir was injured during the game. Since getting linebacker Matt Milano back in Week 13, the Bills rank fifth in rush defense EPA, but the Ravens’ defense has also shown huge improvement, with the best overall EPA per play since Week 12. The total has been bet down from 52.5 to 51.5 points, but money continues to come in on the over. The Bills averaged 34.3 points per game at home this season, and the Ravens averaged 29.6 points per game on the road with a 7-2 mark to the over. 

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

  • If the Vikings get past the Rams, they will open as 3.5-point underdogs ahead of their matchup at Philadelphia. Minnesota went 3-1 against the spread as an underdog this season, but those wins came in the first four weeks of the season, and the Vikings lost in Week 18 in their last game as dogs. Minnesota’s elite run defense sprung some leaks in the second half of the season and really struggled against Detroit’s elite rushing attack. The Eagles have covered in eight of their last 10 games and have the top defense in the NFL in terms of points allowed, yards per play, and yards per pass attempt. In Week 3 of last season, the Eagles beat the Vikings 34-28 at home with 259 rushing yards and nearly 40 minutes of possession. 

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

  • The Eagles rolled to a 37-20 win over the Rams in Week 11 at SoFi Stadium behind 255 rushing yards from Saquon Barkley. So they would open as nearly a touchdown favorite if the Rams are slated to visit Lincoln Financial Field. The Rams ranked 21st in rush defense EPA from Week 10 to the end of the season. They went 4-0 against the spread as road favorites but were 1-2 ATS as road underdogs. The total would open around 45.5 points regardless of which team Philadelphia hosts. 
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Nate Weitzer has been covering sports betting and daily fantasy sports at Catena Media for several years, focusing on the NBA, NFL and MLB. He hosts a popular NBA betting show on the PlayPicks YouTube channel called Coast 2 Coast. When he’s not writing about gambling, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe, or playing basketball himself.

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