1st Overall Pick
There are a few of these that are well beyond wrapped up with no value to be wagered on. This is one of them, as Trevor Lawrence is -5000 to be the first overall pick. Lawrence was going to be the first pick even before announcing he was headed to the NFL Draft. We were all just waiting for him to do so, even dating back to his sophomore year. Lawrence threw 90 touchdowns over three years at Clemson and over 10,000 yards. Jacksonville has the honors this year and will be turning a new leaf with Lawrence under center. After the draft ends, we will turn our focus to the rookie of the year award odds.
2nd Overall Pick
This one is a little bit more interesting because the Jets are involved, and there are a few ways this can play out. Odds certainly point towards Zach Wilson being the second quarterback off the board and the second overall player at -305. These odds continue to rise. Certainly, oddsmakers know more about who is going where, but could a trade derail this pick? More than a few months ago, Justin Fields was seemingly the number two quarterback in the draft, but things have changed.
Now, if the Jets stay home, Wilson seems to be the pick for them. However, the news in Houston continues to be that they are not willing to trade Deshaun Watson. Both teams seem willing to play this out, which isn’t ideal for either side. The Jets remain in the best position to acquire Watson by handing the Texans this number two pick to land a potential franchise quarterback replacement. Fields is interesting at +500, given that the chaos I mentioned could begin right after the Lawrence pick.
First QB Drafted
You can skip ahead to the next section. Trevor Lawrence is -10000 to be the first quarterback drafted. This is a lock, and to put these odds in perspective, you would need to risk $10,000 to win $100. Let’s move on.
First RB Drafted
Here is where we get far closer odds and one deep value to consider. This is an excellent running back class, where you could rank Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Javonte Williams in any order and wouldn’t get much pushback. However, the odds are very close between Etienne and Harris. Both had tremendous careers in college and are viewed as instant-impact backs in the NFL. There are a few spots the first running back could be drafted at. It would be an aggressive move for a running back, but both the Jets and Dolphins are sitting with two first-round picks apiece.
Both are in dire need of a running back, and Miami has already come out and said they would be keying in on one of the top names. I like Harris ahead of Etienne when it comes to these two teams drafting a running back. Both teams have that powerhouse football appeal or at least are in the process of building, especially with Brian Flores down in Miami. Harris fits that bill just a bit more.
The next landing spot is potentially in Tampa at 32. There will be plenty of people mocking a back to them, but really they could address a defensive need instead. However, if they do opt to go running back, Etienne seems to be the popular choice. What if teams learn to wait on running backs? Then it is very open for these three names, but Williams might be a guy that a team really-really likes and jumps on him. He is a three-down back who is also strong in the blocking game. It would be a longshot, but he is not far off from the other two names in talent.
First WR Drafted
|Terrace Marshall Jr||+3300|
This is a two-horse race that actually got closer over the last few months. It might have been a three-horse race if Jaylen Waddle didn’t get injured. Trades might really throw this one off, as the Dolphins hold the number three pick. If Miami has their eyes on Ja’Marr Chase, trading back with a team looking to take Fields/Lance is the wise move. Chase feels like the chalky play here with Miami being the team linked to them.
The Eagles, Lions, and Bengals all sit in the first eight picks with a chance to go the wide receiver route. However, the Bengals have their eyes on Sewell, and the Eagles could be looking at a quarterback. Detroit seems to be a lock for a wide receiver here. The pair of Alabama wide receivers will be the next off the board. As much as the Smith stock has risen over the last year, it would be a surprise to see him go ahead of Chase, even if Smith’s ceiling is a bit higher. I don’t think either is a bad value at the moment, as teams will certainly have Smith as the WR1 on their rankings. It will just be a matter of what trades fall into place that determines where these wide receivers go.
First OL Drafted
Much like the first overall pick and first quarterback off the board, this one is a no-brainer. Penei Sewell sat out in 2020, but NFL teams have been eying him as the top offensive line prospect for quite some time. He is going to be the first offensive lineman taken, and while the odds are more valuable than anything related to Trevor Lawrence, there isn’t much here. Sewell is a monster and a building block for creating a top NFL offensive line.
Total QB’s Drafted In First Round
|Total QBs Drafted In 1st Round|
|Over 4.5 (-670)|
|Under 4.5 (+450)|
This is another one that isn’t as one as it should be. With so many quarterback-needy teams and a strong quarterback class, it is essentially a lock that the five go off the board. The number is set at 4.5 for the over/under. Mac Jones might be the question mark to be taken in the first round, but that would be a surprise to me if he fell out of the first round.
Mac Jones Draft Position
|Mac Jones Draft Position|
|Over 18.5 (-112)|
|Under 18.5 (-112)|
Mac Jones has his own DraftKings special, where his draft position is set at 18.5, with odds of -112 for both the over and the under. This is certainly an interesting number. You have the Patriots at 15, the Bears at 20, and the Saints at 28. These are the four teams Jones will be available for, barring any trade-up from these teams to land a name like Justin Fields or Trey Lance. You could also make a case for the Steelers at 24, but I doubt they go this route when they need severe offensive line help. I also find that Washington is in play for a trade-up, or if they feel he could fall, they stand put. It no surprise to see the equal odds, but I like the Patriots to take Jones at 15.