NFL Draft Props Betting Card: NFL Draft Rumors & Predictions
The NFL Draft is one of my favorite betting events of the year. Not only because I’m a Lions fan and used to being at the top of the draft with hopes of selecting a franchise changing player, but because I can make money at what player I think is going to them. That has since branched out to attacking the draft as a whole as I have published my mock draft with betting deliverables with each pick.
With this list constantly growing with each bet I make; I have decided to give it its own page that is attached to the mock draft as well. This allows me to give my thoughts and reasoning behind each bet I make at the time of making them. Fingers crossed I come close to last year’s incredible performance which resulted in profiting an unreal 57 units.
NFL Draft Props Betting Card
Listed below are all the positions I’m on leading into the draft. This list will constantly be updated with each bet I make as well as reflected in my mock draft. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for instant notifications as I tweet out each bet that I’m on as I make them.
First Defensive Player Drafted – Will Anderson
My first bet of the draft is looking like my best one as Will Anderson has drastically improved as a heavy favorite at this point of writing. He was considered, at minimum, in the top-2 with Jalen Carter before his legal troubles surfaced. With Carter expected to slip, that leaves Anderson Jr as the leading favorite to be the first defensive player drafted off the board.
Number 1 Draft Pick – Will Levis
I tailed FantasyPros Matthew Freedman on this bet as it was his first of the year and he was a lot higher on his chances of going first than I was. There was serious interest with the Colts taking Will Levis and it was highly thought that they would have traded up for him before the Panthers beat them to it. This is now a longshot at best as Stroud and Young have made this a two-horse race.
First Offensive Lineman Drafted – Paris Johnson Jr
Paris Johnson Jr is, in my opinion, the best athlete in this class as he is a monster of a man that can immediately bolster any offensive line that he is drafted to. His long arms give him more room to cover in his back drops, as well as being able to shift with his quick feet. Skoronski has rivaled the top position, but Johnson has pulled away in the markets.
First Wide Receiver Drafted – Quentin Johnston
Before the combine, Johnston was considered the number one receiver based off of his size and athleticism alone. His route running has remained inconsistent, as well as his tendency to drop easy passes. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken a massive lead in this spot after showing out that he’s healthy and more than just a slot receiver.
Number 1 Draft Pick – Anthony Richardson
Like Will Levis, this was an early play at long odds in hopes his combine performance would propel him to potential first quarterback taken status. While it did drastically boost his chances of going early, it seems that the first pick will be either Stroud or Young.
Drafted First, Gonzalez or Witherspoon – Gonzalez
Gonzalez has been my consistent number one corner in both versions of my mock as I have him at sixth to the Lions. Still needing a corner after trading Okudah, I still like my chances of them going with the more experienced Gonzalez while Witherspoon is severely undersized and lacks elite speed.
Drafted First, Mayer or Kincaid – Mayer
I was far more confident in Mayer back then than I am now as his combine performance was underwhelming, but I still give him the nod as Kincaid has injury concerns going into the draft.
First Tight End Drafted – Michael Mayer
This was made in conjunction with the previous play as the tight end market opened at the same time as the draft matchup market. With both Mayer and Kincaid going at above break-even odds, I put on a position on both to scrape together some profit.
First Tight End Drafted – Dalton Kincaid
Uneasy about Mayer’s chances of going first, I took a position on the only tight end I believe who has a realistic chance of going before him to secure a profit. The tight end market has turned into a two-horse race with Darnell Washington being pegged as a mid-second rounder.
First Wide Receiver Drafted – Jaxon Smith-Njigba
After an impressive combine performance, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has firmly inserted himself as the number one receiver in this draft class. He showed that he is more than just a slot receiver, possessing elite route running to burn corners on the outside.
Detroit Lions First Draft Pick Position – Cornerback
After slotting Gonzalez to the Lions in both versions of my mock, I decided to add to the position by having them go corner with their first pick. This also gives me added security in case they go with Devon Witherspoon.
New York Giants First Draft Pick Position – Wide Receiver
No team in the NFL paid more at the receiver position and had a lesser return in production. They have a serious need for pass catchers after re-signing Daniel Jones, as well as being in the perfect spot in the draft to select a tier two receiver. I had Zay Flowers going to them in both versions and may have a different receiver slotted to them in my next one.
Will Anderson Jr Draft Position – Over 3.5
Even though Will Anderson Jr has been slotted to the Cardinals in both versions of my mock, this is a bet that they will trade away their pick to a quarterback needy team. Per ESPN, over six teams have expressed interests in trading up for the pick, making it a strong possibility it happens.
Christian Gonzalez Draft Position – Under 6.5
This is a play that backs my mock draft, getting in on his under at good value. After trading away Okudah, the Lions first draft pick position market reopened heavily in favor of taking a cornerback. It now boils down to it either being Gonzalez or Witherspoon.
https://twitter.com/KP32602493/status/1643899425994194945?s=20
Jalen Carter Draft Position – Over 7.5
I may have gotten ahead of myself with this one as I was under the impression his legal troubles and character concerns would have him slide much farther than anticipated. Those have seemed to subside with Carter having a real possibility of going to the Seahawks or Lions.
Broderick Jones Draft Position – Under 13.5
I have had Jones projected to the Jets at 13 in both versions of my mock and may have him jumping over Skoronski in my next one which just further strengthens my conviction of this happening.
Number 1 Draft Pick – CJ Stroud
This was an immediate play after the Bears traded away their pick as I thought his odds would steadily increase. Turns out I was wrong as Bryce has recently jumped back as the favorite to go first. I still believe Stroud goes number one and would add more to my position if I didn’t already have over a unit staked on him.
First Cornerback Drafted – Christian Gonzalez
Recent steam smashed Gonzalez so I hopped on this bet expecting this to climb higher. While it did for a bit, those odds have since come crashing down at the thought of Witherspoon being a better fit for the Lions. I am still skeptical of Witherspoon going before him, staying firm on my position.
Zay Flowers Draft Position – Under 24.5
Even though I had Zay Flowers going to the Giants at 25 in both my mocks, I noticed he was catching serious steam as a potential sleeper for the first receiver drafted. Especially with Jordan Addison and Quentin Johnston sliding after underwhelming performances, potentially hopping both of them. The market has since reopened at o/u 22.5 juiced towards the under.
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round – Under 4.5
After opening at -250 to the under, I was in shock to see how low this dropped. Hendon Hooker has been a popular name thrown around as a potential late first, but I don’t buy it. Hooker will not be able to see the field until he is 27 and already has major red flags in the injury department. Only a trade can burn this ticket, but I’m skeptical a team is willing to trade away draft capital for a player who can be acquired in the second round.
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round – Under 4.5
After continuing to drop, I added more to my position for the same reasons stated above.
Dont let UConn winning the National Championship distract you from the fact that over 4.5 quarterbacks will NOT be drafted in the first round
— Kody Malstrom (@kmalstrom) April 4, 2023
Atlanta Falcons First Draft Pick Position – Defensive Lineman
I am tailing FantasyPros mock draft betting expert Matthew Freedman on a few teams first draft pick selections as I was late to attack the market as it expanded. Bijan Robinson has been a trendy pick for sharp mock drafters that I follow but I don’t buy it. The Falcons ranked dead last in pass rush and get the chance of taking either Tyree Wilson or Lukas Van Ness. Both would give an immediate boost in production in that department.
Cincinnati Bengals First Draft Pick Position – Tight End
After losing Hayden Hurst in free agency, the Bengals now have a hole to fill at tight end. I have them taking Kincaid in the next version of my mock that is releasing at a later date.
Total Running Backs Drafted in the First Round – Under 1.5
I am kicking myself for not hopping on this when this first dropped as the under opened at -325. Like Hendon Hooker, I was hoping Jahmyr Gibbs would catch steam as a late first rounder. That seems to not be the case, eating a little more juice at the widely available -500.
Joey Porter Jr Draft Position – Over 16.5
This has multiple routes of hitting as Witherspoon may slide down to the Commanders which would make Porter Jr the next best available corner for the Steelers. Especially if Jalen Carter goes to the Lions, bumping both Gonzalez and Witherspoon down the board. The cornerback needy Raiders may also take Levis as well, further bumping down the duo.
Pittsburgh Steelers First Draft Pick Position
This is in correlation with my over bet on Joey Porter Jr’s draft position, slotting the corner with the Steelers in the most recent version of my mock. They slotted 11 different corners throughout the course of the season, desperately needing to find a consistent productive player at that position.
Washington Commanders First Draft Pick Position – Safety
Tampa Bay Buccaneers First Draft Pick Position – Safety
LA Chargers First Draft Pick Position – Safety
Jacksonville Jaguars First Draft Pick Position – Safety
Cincinnati Bengals First Draft Pick Position – Safety
I am also tailing Freedman on how he is tackling the safety position in this draft as I have zero idea what to do with Brian Branch. I slotted him to the Packers in my last version but now I have them taking an edge rusher in my next version. Safety is a weak need in this year’s draft, yet Brian Branch is a top-20 talent. I can see him going to multiple teams, hopefully nailing one of them at very friendly odds. There is also a small risk he gets listed as a corner when he gets drafted so be wary when making these bets.
Top 5 Draft Selection – Will Anderson Jr
Some people stay away from the juice. I embrace it. Especially when this should be -10000 as not a single sharp mock I follow has had Will Anderson Jr out of the top 5. Even if the Cardinals trade away their pick with the possibility of four quarterbacks going one through four, I still give the nod to Anderson Jr going before Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson. There is also still a chance Levis slides, allowing two defenders to go in the top 5.
Drafted First, Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jordan Addison – JSN
Recent reports have come out that GM’s peg Jaxon-Smith Njigba as the only true WR 1 in this draft class. I have had JSN sizably above the rest of the class, creating two tiers with the others going around the 21-25 range. Addison has also been slipping in the receiver markets after underwhelming performances, potentially being the fourth receiver drafted with Zay Flowers and Quentin Johnston going before him.
Second Wide Receiver Drafted – Quentin Johnston
After opening as the favorite, Johnston shot down to second overall after an impressive combine performance from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Johnston has been my consistent number two receiver in both my mock drafts, although it should be mentioned that Zay Flowers is quickly closing the gap. I will still give him the nod for now as he has a massive frame and catch radius as a lethal downfield threat.
Total Wide Receivers Drafted in the First Round – Over 3.5
After it was announced who was attending the NFL Draft, Draftkings was quick to react to Quentin Johnston’s name being off the list. This receiver class was already pegged underwhelming with some saying only Jaxon Smith-Njigba is worthy of an early first round pick.
Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison have all been listed in the first round in both versions of my mock with plenty of receiver needy teams residing in the 20-27 range. That also doesn’t even account for Jalin Hyatt or Josh Downs who may sneak into the first round as well.
Player to be Drafted in the First Round – Calijah Kancey
Kancey has seen a steady rise up draft boards since the start of draft season as he has continued to impress scouts as a physical marvel on the defensive line. While his position limits his ceiling, it has been made clear that he is a late first round talent at the very minimum.
He has been a first-round selection in both versions of my mock draft, climbing up even higher in my next one. Pending how both the Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks initial first round picks go, both teams have a need for his services with their second first rounders later in the draft.
Detroit Lions First Draft Pick Position – Defensive Lineman/Edge
This is a numbers play as rumors are swirling that Jalen Carter interviewed well with the Lions. Sportsbooks have pulled this market while Draftkings reopening this position at -105.
Since I already have a position on the Lions to take a cornerback for a full unit, that means I will either lose pennies on a defensive lineman or profit half a unit on a cornerback. Some added security for a draft pick that has numerous question marks around it.
Total Tight Ends Drafted in the First Round – Under 2.5
The over took some heavy steam overnight, dropping this line down to as low as -130 in some shops. Draftkings have even dropped their total from 2.5 to 2.
This is crazy to me as Darnell Washington and Luke Musgrave have been widely considered as round two targets while Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid are widely regarded as late first rounders. This will get interesting if the Packers and Cowboys go tight end, leaving the Bengals with the tough choice of reaching for a positional need at tight end or trading away their pick.
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round – Under 4.5
With some sportsbooks dropping this to -115/-115, I have added a piece to my previous position to make this my largest wager on my draft card. Stroud and Richardson are expected to slide, giving me good conviction that no team will waste precious draft capital to take Hooker who is regarded as the fifth best option in this class.
Top 5 Draft Selection – Tyree Wilson
Wilson has been gaining serious steam as the first defensive player drafted as he has a potentially higher ceiling than Will Anderson Jr off of pure athleticism. With quarterbacks sliding down draft boards, this opens up more slots for defensive players to be drafted in the top 5.
Hendon Hooker Draft Position – Over 31.5
This is essentially another piece towards my under 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first-round positions. CJ Stroud is plummeting down draft boards due to character concerns and a shocking low S2 score. This will give teams late in the draft pause in wasting draft capital on a relatively weak quarterback draft class. Matt Corral was in this position last year and I’m getting an eerily same feeling that Hooker is going to suffer the same fate in a potential slide.
First Defenseman Drafted – Tyree Wilson
Like my top-5 reasoning, Wilson is gaining serious steam as the potential first defenseman drafted as teams believe he has a higher ceiling due to his athleticism and raw skills. Will Anderson Jr going as the first defenseman was my first bet at +135, locking in a profit should either go first.
Deonte Banks Draft Position – Over 20.5
With Christian Gonzalez slipping down draft boards, that pushes the need for corners down as well. After the Steelers at 17, no team has a pressing need for a cornerback until the Chargers at 21. The Lions are a potential choice at 18 but I have them taking a corner at 6.
Eagles First Draft Pick Offense or Defense – Defense
While the market favors the Eagles to take an offensive lineman, I believe they will look to add depth to their defensive line. Per Matthew Freedman, they have expressed a desire to trade up for Jalen Carter.
Should they not be able to land Carter then I have had the likes of Nolan Smith, Lukas Van Ness, and Christian Gonzalez all mocked to the Eagles at some point while working on the third and final version of my mock draft.
It's strongly rumored that the Eagles want DT Jalen Carter and are willing to trade up to get him.
That should be the sign to all the teams picking ahead of them that they should want Carter too.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 25, 2023
Darnell Wright Draft Position – Under 17.5
Darnell Wright has a large range of outcomes of where he may be drafted and hardly any of them involve him going past 17. Especially with the Bears being linked to him at 9, giving plenty of room for slippage until someone scoops him up. There are four certified first round selections at offensive tackle with five teams in the top-17 having an immediate need for the position.
Total Offensive Lineman Drafted in the First Round – Under 6.5
I was hesitant to take the under at 5.5 but I will now gladly take a piece at 6.5 as I have hovered around the 5-6 range for offensive tackles taken in the first round. There are four guarantees at the position to go in the first round with O’Cyrus, Anton Harrison, and Dawand Jones all being fringe late first rounders.
First Cornerback Drafted – Devon Witherspoon
I have finally admitted defeat. I tried to last as long as I could on the Christian Gonzalez train, but I have finally hopped off the tracks. Witherspoon is the consensus favorite in almost all sharp mocks, and this serves as sort of a buy back on my Gonzalez positions.
Second Overall Selection – CJ Stroud
Stroud has been catching serious steam across all markets as the potential second overall selection. While I am still skeptical about this, I am catching the falling knife by placing a small wager on it before it continues to shoot down.
