NFL FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks: Season Futures
Contents
Team to win Most Games – Excluding Playoffs: Pittsburgh Steelers +100 over Cleveland Browns – 1 Unit
Browns to Miss the Playoffs +102 – 1 Unit
(Both lines currently available on DraftKings)
Old Guard vs. New Kid on the Block. Pedigree vs. Hype. Continuity vs. Change.
The battle at the top of the AFC North is a perfect litmus test for what one values in an NFL team.
I tend to buy into the old adage that the best NFL teams are built from the inside out, and with leadership from the top down. In that spirit, I find it crucial that the Steelers have the edge over the Browns in the following categories:
-Head Coach – Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. Freddie Kitchens is a first time head coach.
-QB Experience – Ben Roethlisberger is a future hall of famer that seems reinvigorated by the opportunity to lead a new group. Baker Mayfield has played 11 games in a league known to adjust quickly to tendencies of young players.
-Offensive Line: Pro Football Focus ranks the Steelers O-Line 3rd in the NFL. They rank the Browns’ 20th.
-Defensive Line: PFF ranks the Steelers 7th in rush defense, and the Browns 14th.
In other words, the Steelers have the edge over the Browns in all of the meat and potatoes categories of football.
Conversely, all of the areas which the Browns appear to have the advantage over the Steelers, are the same categories that public bettors tend to overrate.
– Skill Position Players
– Highly Drafted Players at Marquee Positions
– Novelty and media coverage.
The Browns have won 8 games total the past 3 years. The Steelers have never won less than 8 games in 12 seasons under Mike Tomlin. Likey drawing from these past results, models like PFF give the Steelers far and away the best chance to win the AFC North (60%). However, we do not need the outlook to be quiet so rosey. We have a profitable bet so long as the Steelers are equal or better than the upstart Browns.
The market indicates that the Steelers and Browns are in fact equal at the moment. DraftKings has Cleveland as a 3 point favorite at home over the Steelers on November 14th. While one could argue the young Browns will improve over the course of the season – I find it just as likely that things will go the other way. With a new coach and a new set of expectations, there is a good chance that the Browns will be in turmoil by the time we get to this matchup.
The Browns are currently priced as underdogs in 5 of their first 8 games. They host the Rams in Week 3 and travel to Baltimore in Week 4. In week 5, they travel to San Francisco. Then they host the Seahawks in week 6, before taking on their toughest test: traveling to New England in week 7. In week 8 it doesn’t get much easier when they travel to the Mile High City, where the Browns have won only once since the franchise returned to the NFL in 1999.
Given their preseason hype, if the Browns get off to a 3-5 or 2-6 start, there will be a deluge of criticism directed at Freddie Kitchens, as well, perhaps at QB Baker Mayfield. I would not expect a young team such as this one to respond well to dashed expectations. They may turn on their coach, the way the Jaguars turned on Blake Bortles last year as it became clear he was a hindrance to their success.
The Steelers, on the other hand, will not panic or veer of course regardless of their early season record. Mike Tomlin’s winning history provides built in stability. The Steelers players know that the organization will back Tomlinson in any dispute. If they turn on their coach, they will be turned towards the door.
NFL owes much of its attraction from the fact that teams can go from worst to first. But when the public has such conviction that a newly built team like the Browns will instantly become legitimate contenders, I am prone to bet the other way. I find value in betting on the continuity of the old guard, especially in the toughest division in football.
Will Any Team Be 16-0 in the 2019-2020 season, No -2500 – 1 Unit
NFL teams began playing a 16-game schedule in 1978. In the 40 years since, there has been only one undefeated team in the regular season, the 2008 Patriots. Of course this is not enough of a sample size to conclude that the true odds of an undefeated teams is 40/1. But it does suggest to me that it is more likely than not that the true odds are higher than 25/1.
Furthermore, there are several factors that make it harder today to have an undefeated team that it has been in years past. First, the salary cap, started in 1994, ensures a certain level of parity across the league. Secondly, since the new CBA was enacted in 2011 teams have less time during the off season to build cohesion. Because of this some of the best teams such as the Patriots prioritize development even over winning in the early months of the season.
Yes, there are new coaches such as Sean McVay that have demonstrated unique innovation in a short of amount time. But video technology also enhances other coaches abilities to learn new concepts faster than ever before. The Rams scored 34.9 points per game over their first 12 games last season, scoring 30+ in 83% of their games. Over their next 7 games, however, opponents held the Rams to 23 points per contest, and they scored 30+ in only 43% of their games.
NFL stands for Not. For. Long. No matter the lightspeed of innovation, the league catches up. Eventually the question becomes, “what else you got?” Hard to imagine any team this year will have the talent and the discipline to repeat the feat of the 2008 Patriots or the 1972 Dolphins. It very well may happen again, but I bet it happens less frequently than once every 25 years.