NFL FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks: Team & Player Season Futures

Julio Jones Under 8 touchdowns (-110) – 1 Unit

Julio Jones has always been a better overall receiver than he has been a red zone threat. As the featured Falcons target, Jones has gained 1,600 yards and caught a hundred balls twice each – earning him a well deserved reputation.  His popularity accounts for fans gravitating toward the Over despite the data indicating this number should be lower.

atlanta falconsOnly once in his eight year career has Jones recorded double digit touchdowns. That was back in 2012 when opposing teams were more worried about his teammate Roddy White.

In 111 career games, Jones has tallied 51 total receiving touchdowns, good for about 7.35 per 16 games. Even as he has improved to be among a handful of players considered in the Best-In-The-World conversation for his position, his touchdown rate has gone down. Over his last six seasons, Jones has scored 6.39 touchdowns per 16 games.

Jones has been largely reliable in terms of staying on the field, only missing three games over 5 years since a foot injury ended his 2013 season early. Still when we factor in even a small chance of injury costing Jones a couple games, this number should be closer to 7.

The fact that the Falcons and Jones were not able to come to an agreement on a contract extension this summer means Jones will want to be extremely careful with his body in preparation for his next contract.

Risk of missing games is a big part of why Unders have hit above 60% for all Players Props in each of the last two seasons, despite an uptick in league-wide scoring.

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Team to Win Most Games: Buffalo Bills +130 over New York Jets – 1 Unit

A lot less people bet futures than bet regular season games. The information we glean from the more liquid market – regular season odds – we can use to take advantage of opportunities in markets more susceptible to bias or mispricing – such as futures. Here we have a locality bias creating such an opportunity.

buffalo billsThe larger betting market tells us that the Bills and Jets are even teams. Week 1, the Bills are 3-point underdogs at the Meadowlands, implying they would be Pick’em on a neutral field. In fact, several sports book have the line at +3 (-115), implying that the Bills are slightly better than the Jets at this point.

So if the Bills and Jets are even now why are the Jets significant favorites to win more games over the course of the season?

The schedule doesn’t justify the odds. The Bills and Jets have the same scheduled opponents except for two. The Bills travel to play Tennessee and host the Broncos, whereas the Jets travel to Jacksonville and host the Raiders. The Broncos may be slightly better than the Raiders (about 2 points better, according to their Week 1 odds against them) but the hardest of these games by far will be for the Jets to play the Jags on their home turf.

Coaching: Advantage Bills

Sean Mcdermott surprised many by winning seven games last year.  The year prior, Mcdermott took the Bills to their first playoff game in twenty years. For his career, Mcdermott is 16-15-1 ATS.

On the other hand, Adam Gase was recently fired after failing to lead the Dolphins anywhere in three years in Miami. For his career, Gase is 22-23-3 ATS.

Quarterback: Closer than you might think.

Even though Sam Darnold is by far the more hyped prospect, Josh Allen won 5 of his 11 starts with a roster many predicted to be the worst in the league last year.

The only explanation that makes sense to me as why the Jets are favored in this matchup is because more Jets fans bet these futures than Bills fans. This creates the perfect scenario to bet against public bias.

New England Patriots to Win the AFC East (-550) – 1 Unit

Patriots have gone over their win total in 13 of their last 18 seasons.  The Pats have won double digit games 16 years straight, as well.  Ten wins will be more than enough to take this division this year.

new england patriotsAlthough facing the Steelers in week 1 will be a tough task (I actually lean towards Pittsburgh in that one) the Patriots do not face a playoff team for the first eight weeks of the season. New England has been somewhat of a slow starter in recent years, and having a creampuff schedule earlier will help them avoid racking up too many losses before they reach their stride.

Of course, there will be a year when Tom Brady can’t sling it anymore.  Even if Brady falls off significantly, the rest of this team is good enough to win the division.

The Patriots have taken their division in 10 straight years and 15 out of the past 16. This year, no other team in the AFC East has a win total above 7, while the Pats are at 11.5. Don’t be afraid to bet a lot to win a little – Belichick and crew will make it 16 out of 17 this year.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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