NFL FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks: Week 1 Pennsylvania Odds
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Houston Texans +7 @ New Orleans Saints – 1 Unit
The Saints have been notoriously slow starters in the golden years of the Drew Brees and Sean Payton Duo. Since 2014, New Orleans is 1-9 SU & ATS in the first two games of the NFL regular season.
As Drew Brees steadily loses arm strength, his timing and coordination with his receivers becomes that much more important. He can’t just Brett Farve a ball through a gaggle of defenders and let his receiver make a play. Rather, the Saints offense requires impeccable timing. Meanwhile timing has become increasingly difficult to establish nowadays with significantly less practice time allotted to these players under the new CBA.
The Saints defense as well has been vulnerable early in the season, before strengthening later in the year.
Conversely, we have a Houston attack ready to capitalize on opening up their season on turf. DeShaun Watson and company have incredible weapons who are finally getting back to full strength . Will Fueller will be back and adding a pass-catching RB in Duke Johnson will only make Watson more dangerous. In 11 career games with Fueller in the lineup, Watson averages 2.72 touchdowns per game, compared to just 1.36 TDs per game when Fueller has been out. DeAndre Hopkins has emerged as the most dangerous wideout in the NFL.
Expect fireworks. Expect a Texans cover.
Indianapolis Colts +7 @ LA Chargers – 1 Unit
The LA Chargers are 10-20 ATS over their last 30 home games. That terrible record can be split into an awkward transition out of San Diego, and lukewarm reception now that they’re in LA.
The Chargers are 6-9 ATS at Dignity Health Sports Park, and I’m not sure there has been any adjustment to their homecourt advantage. Bookmakers originally set this line at -3 in favor of the Chargers. Given that the Colts and Chargers had similar futures odds , we can impute that they were rated about the same and thus that the LA had been given a 3 point HFA. I think given there history and lack of fan support the Chargers should only have a 1.5-2 points HFA.
Now that Andrew Luck has retired the line has moved from Colts +3 to Colts +7 or 7.5 in some spots. The 4 point downgrade from Luck to new starter, Jacoby Brissett feels about right. However, there is Ewing Theory potential. The Colts may rally around the fact that they have talent up and down the field yet no one in the media is giving them a chance to compete. That extra team-wide motivation might mitigate some of the talent drop off from Luck to Brissett, especially early in the year.
The -3 line also factored in Melvin Gordon as the starter. We have not seen a meaningful adjustment as Gordon’s holdout lingers – and now it appears Gordon would prefer a trade than to lineup with LAC week 1.
If Luck was playing, I think Colts +3 would be a good bet. Now that he is out, I like the Colts +7.5 even better. The Chargers have an overrated homecourt advantage and will miss Melvin Gordon in week 1. The Colts will be out to prove the world wrong.
Damian Williams Under 775.5 Rushing Yards – 1 Unit
Damian Williams filled in for Kareem Hunt dutifully last year – but I think it’s a stretch to assume he will be an above league average RB going forward, or even that he will necessarily be the #1 option at RB for the Chiefs this year.
The 6th year back averaged an impressive 5.12 yards per rush last season. But I think a lot of that had to with opposing teams daring KC to run with Hunt out. He left some opportunities on the table in the AFC championship game last year – a fact that will not have gone unnoticed by Andy Reid and his staff.
Williams doesn’t come particularly pedigreed. He went undrafted in 2014, he’s 27 and he’s only started 7 NFL games in his career. Williams has gone to 5 different training camps and this will be the first one he was considered for the starting gig.
Players such as Darwin Thompson could beat Williams out by the middle of the season. We all know the NFL is Darwinian. Williams will have to boast an average of a lot higher than his career average of 4 yards per carry to warrant full-time #1 RB responsibilities.
Like we saw in there last preseason game, Williams has shown more adeptness catching balls out of the back field than he has carrying the rock. If Thompson proves the more dangerous running back, Williams might switch to only 3rd down duties. Adding in the risk of injury, I project a far better than 50% chance that Williams comes short of his posted total.