NFL FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks: Week 1 & Season Futures, Rams Edition

Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-113) @ Carolina Panthers – 1 Unit
Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (+160) @ Carolina Panthers – .25 Units

Bucking a pretty gruesome trend here. This century Super Bowl losers are 3-16 ATS in Week 1 the following year. The reasoning is intuitive. For one, bettors tend to overvalue what they’ve seen last, helping the number slant in their direction.  Secondly, perhaps are psychological factors, and discontent on a typical SB losing team. Six months ago they nearly conquered the world.  Week 1, all the sudden, they realize their just another team a couple seasons away from firing their coach.

Not so with the Rams here on either front.  There offense has shown steady success for the past two years, and the team has greatly exceeded expectations in each. There still seems to be a buzz in the building like, We’re only just getting started.

los angeles ramsThe trend of SB losers is also counteracted by Sean McVay’s own performance on Week 1, as well as with extra time to prepare. Last year, the Rams won by 20 in Oakland and the year before that they covered the spread by 33.5 at home against the Colts.

If we expand the sample size to include games after the Bye week – regular season games where McVay had two or more weeks to prepare – McVay is 4-0 SU & ATS with an average ATS margin of +19.9. If we include the Super Bowl clunker as an extra-preparation week, that record still ain’t shabby at 4-1 SU & ATS with an average ATS margin of +14.4.

The line was Rams -3 all summer and rightfully so by my estimation. The most salient recent news from either camp must be Cam Newton’s foot sprain in mid August. While I don’t think Newton will be bad in this game after three weeks off, I don’t think the Panthers could deserve an upgrade until we see Newton right.

I like the Rams 5.5 to 6 points better than an average team, and the Panthers to me are a quintessential average team. If anything a half point worse. Carolina also has a less than stellar home field advantage, about 2.5 points. That makes a good line at 5.5-2.5 = 3. Getting off that key number 3 makes it an easy pick.

When spreads are in the range of 3 – 2.5 to 3.5 – there is about a 10% chance the line falls exactly on three. If we can bet a -2.5 when the true line should be 3, we will win the 45% of the time that it falls to the north of three + the 10% of the time it will fall exactly on three. That 55% is the goal.

Adding Rams -6.5 +160 because of McVay’s pension for margin.  All four games McVay has won with extra time to prepare have been routes, including both season openers. In McVay’s 15 covers as an NFL Coach the average ATS margin has been +13.8. In 14 of the 15 games, he would have covered a spread 4-points higher than the actual game spread.

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Cooper Kupp Over 950.5 Yards – 1 Unit

Bet on modern medicine. One of the most consistent global trends is the ever-changing paradigm of what humans can do and when. Cooper Kupp suffered ACL tear 10 months ago. I’m not sure in today’s world that means he is necessarily less than 100% right now. The ACL is a 2000’s injury.

Kupp has been practicing full speed for a month and looks better and tests faster than he did before he went down.

los angeles ramsOf course, there is some chance he will not be as good as he was last year that we must consider. But he would have to fall off his normal production significantly – or get hurt – for this ticket to lose.

As a rookie in 2017, Cooper started 6 games and averaged 65 yards per game in those starts. He also exploded for 116 yards one game coming off the bench.

Kupp has averaged 68.3 yards per start in his career. He needs 59.2 per game if he plays all 16 for us to cash the over, 63 ypg if he plays 15 games, and 67 if he plays 14. I expect him to average 80 yards per game and play 16.

Last year, in the second year under Mcvay, Kupp separated himself in an offense with manifold threats. If you remove the games in which he was injured, Kupp averaged 7.71 targets per game – basically the same as Robert Woods & Brandon Cooks, except he was more productive. Among Rams receivers, Kupp averaged the most yards per target, the highest expected fantasy points per target, and the highest catch %.

In six healthy starts, Kupp averaged 87.8 yards per game last year. We would only need 11 games off that production to cash this ticket by Thanksgiving.

If he stays healthy, we have more than a decent wager. Kupp did not have an injury history before his knee last year. I’m betting he stays healthy – most players do. If Kupp plays for the full season, we only need 68% of his production from last year to get over 950.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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