NFL First Touchdown Picks Odds: Updated Odds & Expert Plays

NFL First Touchdown Scorer props are offered on numerous sportsbooks and have taken the betting population by storm. All season long, you can find NFL first touchdown picks, odds, stats, and strategy.

NFL First Touchdown Odds

Search for any NFL player to bring up their player props & first touchdown across multiple sportsbooks. 

NFL First Touchdown Picks

Last Updated: 12/3/23 (5:36 pm ET)

Braxton Reynolds: 21-166, -16.66u

As a side note, I sometimes post additional plays before games on Twitter (@BReynolds200) once injury updates or odds for later games come out.

Total Risked Below – 1.6u

Romeo Doubs First Touchdown (0.4u, +1800 BMGM) & Romeo Doubs First Packers Touchdown (0.4u, +650 FD) & AJ Dillon First Touchdown (0.4u, +825 BMGM) & AJ Dillon First Packers Touchdown (0.4u, +340 FD) 

Kansas City ranks 31st in opponent rush EPA per play and 3rd in opponent dropback EPA per play. With Aaron Jones out, AJ Dillon will have full command of the backfield against Kansas City’s run defense. Meanwhile, Doubs leads Green Bay in red zone targets and inside the ten yard line targets. He owns the most first touchdown equity of the Green Bay pass-catchers.

NFL First Touchdown Data

Last Updated: (11/18/23) – After Week Ten

The following table contains two stats. First TD% measures what percent of the time the team scored the first touchdown. First Drive TD% measures what percent of the time the team scored a touchdown on their first drive. These two stats can help us identify which teams are granting their respective players more opportunities to score the first touchdown.

First TD%First Drive TD%

NFL First Touchdown Prop Rules

The goal of the prop is to select the player who scores the first touchdown of the game. Receiving, rushing, or defensive touchdowns are the categories that count towards the prop. For example, if Patrick Mahomes opens the game with a touchdown pass to Travis Kelce, then all bets on Kelce first touchdown would win. Meanwhile, all bets on Mahomes and every other player besides Kelce would lose.

It’s possible for the quarterback to cash first touchdown, but he must score via a rush or catch – not by throwing a pass. The player who passes the touchdown will never receive credit for the first touchdown prop.

As another example, if the Raiders score the game’s first touchdown via a fumble recovery touchdown or pick six, then all bets on Raiders Defense would win. Finally, a bet can be placed on No Touchdown Scorer. If neither team scores a touchdown for the entire game (including overtime if applicable), then all bets on No Touchdown Scorer would win.

NFL First Touchdown Strategy

Here are a few key areas to ponder before placing a first touchdown prop. To find more NFL advice, follow our LINEUPS YouTube channel.

Team Offensive & Defensive Success

Since a touchdown is needed in the first place, it’s typically wise to select players from teams that frequently drive the ball down field and score at a high rate. Otherwise, it’s less likely the chosen player will have an opportunity to notch the first touchdown.

Meanwhile, a team’s defense must also be considered since the coin toss is random. If a team consistently stops opponents from scoring, then it’s more likely that an offensive player from that team will score the first touchdown. The offensive success aspect is the more important side, but both must be factored into the equation.

Team Tendencies

Do they air it out for long touchdown attempts? Or does the team grind out yards before punching it into the endzone for a touchdown? Does the team tend to pass or run more in the red zone? Understanding how a team operates is vital to identifying which player has more opportunities to score.

Red Zone Involvement

Knowing which players dominate red zone usage is absolutely crucial. A player with more volume is mathematically more likely to score a touchdown than a player with less volume. Identifying quarterback favorites or goal line running backs is a must. For updated red zone usage stats, check out this Lineups page.

Opponent Weaknesses

Does the opponent’s defensive line give up ground easily? Does a team possess elite cornerbacks and safeties that take away explosive plays? NFL teams always seek to exploit weaknesses, which results in a specific player getting the opportunity to score. Therefore, it’s key to dissect the opponent’s weaknesses.

NFL First Touchdown Sportsbook Promos 

There are a number of promotions that sportsbooks offer for the first touchdown prop. The most popular one is an odds boost, although it’s usually accompanied by a maximum wager condition. Other promotions include a portion of losses either refunded or transformed into site credit. Just as shopping odds is vital, look for as many promotions as possible across multiple sportsbooks. They are typically offered every week. 

NFL First Touchdown FAQ

What Are NFL First Touchdown Props?

They are a specific player prop where the goal is to select the player who scores the first touchdown of the game.

Where Can I Legally Place NFL First Touchdown Props Online?

You can legally place NFL first touchdown props online in any of the legal sports betting states. You must be physically located in a legal betting state to place an NFL first touchdown prop.

What Happens If My Player Doesn’t Play?

Players must play at least one snap for the bet to be considered live. If a player is listed as inactive or registers zero snaps, then the bet is void and refunded.

What Happens If A Player Scores The First Touchdown In Overtime?

Overtime still counts for the prop, so the player that scored the first touchdown of the game in overtime would win the bet.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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