NFL Futures I’m Betting On Before Week 10

Last week in this column, I wrote about the Seahawks as a potentially great bet to make the playoffs in a wide-open NFC field. With Russell Wilson and Chris Carson expected to return this week, I feel great about that value. My other future was the Buccaneers to be the #1 seed in the NFC, and they are down to +300 after the Rams lost to the Titans, and the Cardinals are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball. Let’s see if we can find some great value this week.

Futures We’ve Bet On

*Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

• • Arizona Cardinals Under 13.5 Wins; Current Odds: 13.5 Wins
  • New England Patriots to Make the Playoffs at +350; Current Odds: -125
  • Seattle Seahawks to Make the Playoffs at +230; Current Odds: +175
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the #1 seed in the NFC at +490; Current Odds: +300

Cleveland Browns to win the AFC North: +420

This is a strong value play, as the Ravens are still my bet to come out of the division, but the Browns at over 4-to-1 odds are too good to pass up. Cleveland doesn’t exactly face an easy schedule the rest of the way, but the entire AFC North is in the top seven in terms of the most challenging schedules remaining. The Browns do play the Ravens twice and the Steelers and Bengals each once the rest of the way and those divisional games are high-value opportunities to get ahead. For example, the odds would shift significantly if the Browns could split their games with the Ravens. Baltimore still has to play the Packers and Rams, and Cleveland is only a game behind them after their impressive beatdown of the Bengals.

Beyond the circumstantial factors, Baker Mayfield seems to be getting healthier and is coming off his best game of the season as he completed 66.7% of his passes and threw for 218 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals. Of course, Cleveland was playing from ahead for the entirety of the game, but Mayfield deserves credit, especially for his long-bomb touchdown to Donovan Peoples-Jones. It felt like the entire team had a weight lifted off them with the Odell Beckham Jr. release being finalized, and Kareem Hunt is close to a return. Make no mistake about it; this team is still dealing with an unfortunate amount of injuries. However, they have a better defense than the Ravens and Bengals and a better offense than the Steelers. I like the Browns as a value play to make it out of the division.

Denver Broncos Over 8.5 Wins

I never thought I’d be recommending a future bet on the Broncos, but that win over the Cowboys was a defining moment for this team’s season, and they are very much alive in a wide-open AFC West. Teddy Bridgewater is quietly playing excellent football as he ranks tenth in the NFL in passer rating and has completed 70.2% of his passes, the third-best rate in the NFL. Jerry Jeudy is back in the lineup to form an elite pass-catching corps with Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Noah Fant. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams is coming off his first 100-yard game as a pro, and Melvin Gordon has scored four touchdowns in his last three games. Denver’s defense also stepped up unbelievably to almost shut out a Super Bowl-caliber offense in Dallas as several young players stepped up in the wake of Von Miller being traded. Rookies Caden Sterns, Jonathon Cooper, and Baron Browning had arguably the best games of their respective careers last week.

Even more enticing than the improved performances of the players on this team is a delightful remaining schedule that ranks as the tenth-easiest in opponents’ strength of schedule. Games against the Lions, Eagles, and Bengals should all be reasonably winnable. In contrast, the prospect of five remaining divisional games is far less daunting given the uneven performances of the Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders. I am a Broncos fan, so take this pick with however large a grain of salt you can find. However, my friends will tell you I was completely out on this team before a signature win against the Cowboys. Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in, and a 4-5 record the rest of the way should be very doable.