NFL Futures I’m Betting On Before Week 11

I’m not thrilled about either of the futures I wrote about in this column last week. I had the Browns winning a big statement game over the Patriots to put themselves in the conversation for the top of the AFC North, but they were blown out. I had the Broncos winning against the Eagles as a push for their regular-season win total, and that didn’t happen either. However, both of those futures are still alive, and my Patriots to make the playoffs at +350 bet feels fantastic these days. Anyways, let’s take a look at some value for this week.

Futures We’ve Bet On

*Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

• Arizona Cardinals Under 13.5 Wins; Current Odds: 12.5 Wins
• New England Patriots to Make the Playoffs at +350; Current Odds: -500
• Seattle Seahawks to Make the Playoffs at +230; Current Odds: +300
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the #1 seed in the NFC at +490; Current Odds: +500
• Cleveland Browns to win the AFC North: +420; Current Odds: +400
• Denver Broncos Over 8.5 Wins; Current Odds: 8.5 Wins

Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West: -110

The Chiefs made a big statement last week in their 41-14 win over the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns as the offense got back on track in a huge way. Meanwhile, the defense looked the best it has all season. The addition of Melvin Ingram has been significant in giving Kansas City another pass-rush presence alongside Chris Jones and Jarran Reed. That will be huge in helping their secondary. Speaking of that secondary, with L’Jarius Sneed is turning his season around, Rashad Fenton has been playing excellent football, and the safety duo of Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill has looked great. The Chiefs’ defense is not the same unit it was earlier in the season, and while they may allow Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to have a big day tomorrow, I believe their improvement is legitimate.

Kansas City has a challenging remaining strength of schedule. They play the third-toughest schedule in the NFL in terms of cumulative opponents’ win percentage. However, their divisional games are all winnable, and outside of the Cowboys this week, there are no true juggernauts on the slate. Moreover, I simply don’t trust any of the other teams in the division to get the job done. The Raiders have been far too inconsistent to take on a problematic remaining slate, the Broncos look unprepared every week, and the Chargers have failed to take advantage of their opportunities. Even with the doom and gloom of the first half of the year for Kansas City, they still sit alone atop the division. With Patrick Mahomes back on a roll, it’s time for the Chiefs to pull away from their divisional competition, and I’m loving the even money on this bet.

Philadelphia Eagles to Make the Playoffs: +200

If you’ve been reading my content this year, you’ll know I wasn’t the biggest fan of Jalen Hurts early in the season. Well, that’s an understatement. I repeatedly called for the second-year passer to be benched. However, I’m starting to rethink my position as he’s completed over 64% of his passes in three straight games. He hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in any of those games, but the Eagles are running the ball with excellent efficiency lately and are expected to get Miles Sanders, their best running back, back in the lineup shortly. DeVonta Smith has had some massive games recently with 60+ receiving yards in three of his last four games, and the Eagles have found themselves offensively. Their defense has also been much-improved, and the secondary has been excellent, particularly with the cornerback trio of Darius Slay, Steven Nelson, and Avonte Maddox.

However, the biggest reason for the Eagles to make the playoffs bet is the situational factors surrounding them. Philadelphia faces the third-easiest schedule the rest of the way with winnable divisional games against the Giants and Washington each twice, as well as a game against the pitiful Jets. One of their two challenging remaining games comes this week against the Saints, and I’m picking them to win. The Eagles are currently 4-6, and I firmly believe a 9-8 or even 8-9 team will take the final Wild Card spot in the conference. With an easy remaining schedule and momentum building from recent strong results, why not the Eagles?

Tennessee Titans Over 12.5 Wins

I wasn’t planning on including this bet in the article, but I’m surprised this is still available, and I felt I had to throw it in. You’re going to have to drink some heavy juice on this line, and if you don’t want to do it, I understand entirely. However, the Titans are 8-2 and face the most manageable schedule in the NFL in terms of cumulative opponent winning percentage. The difficult part of Tennessee’s schedule came when they were playing the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints in back-to-back weeks, and they came out of that stretch unscathed. The rest of the Titans’ schedule includes the Jaguars, Dolphins, 49ers, Steelers, and Texans twice in addition to their big Week 12 game against the Patriots. There’s no reason they shouldn’t escape that stretch with five wins, and the fact that you can still find the Titans’ line at 12.5 wins is surprising to me.