NFL Futures I’m Betting On Before Week 9

Last week in this column, I recommended getting money on the Cardinals to win under 13.5 games and the Patriots to make the playoffs at +350. Not to toot my own horn, but Arizona went on to lose its first game of the season as the Patriots went on the road and beat the Chargers. I will keep track of the futures I reference in this article, and I’ll have two new futures for you every week. Let’s see if we can find some good value again this week.

Futures We’ve Bet On

• Arizona Cardinals Under 13.5 Wins; Current Odds: 12.5 Wins
• New England Patriots to Make the Playoffs at +350; Current Odds: +115

Seattle Seahawks to Make the Playoffs: +230

Once the Seahawks return from their Week 9 bye, Russell Wilson will be eligible to return from Injured Reserve, where he has spent time after having finger surgery following a Week 5 injury to the Rams. Wilson got a pin taken out of his finger this week and is back to throwing the ball, both good signs that he’s close to full recovery. Pete Caroll said it would be “really close” as far as Wilson’s ability to come back in Week 10 to face the Packers. If Wilson can return, the Seahawks will have a great chance to make the playoffs as he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when healthy – Wilson still leads the NFL with a passer rating of 125.3 and threw for ten touchdowns to just one interception in five games before his injury.

There’s a good chance an 8-win team could make it to the postseason in a seven-team playoff field. None of the other teams in the conversation are inspiring confidence at the moment. The Vikings have a very talented roster, but their poor coaching has held them back all season. The Panthers continue to be without Christian McCaffrey, and the struggling Sam Darnold is now recovering from a concussion and shoulder injury. The Falcons will struggle to move the ball consistently for as long as Calvin Ridley is not playing. The Bears have one of the league’s worst offensive lines, a coach I’m not confident in, and an inconsistent rookie quarterback.

Seattle’s remaining schedule isn’t necessarily easy, but they still do get to face four very beatable teams in the Texans, Lions, Bears, and Washington Football Team. If they can win all four of those and steal one of their four remaining divisional games, that would put the Seahawks in the driver’s seat to make the playoffs. That’s a lot of ifs and it hinges on Russell Wilson returning to full health as soon as possible. However, I’m willing to gamble on the Seahawks emerging in the NFC to grab hold of the seventh seed with no other teams making a solid case to get there.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the #1 seed in the NFC: +490

I’m honestly shocked that you can get the Buccaneers at almost 5-to-1 odds to earn the #1 seed in the NFC. Tampa may be the four-seed at the moment at 6-2, but the bye week comes at a great time to help them get healthier ahead of a second-half push. The 7-1 Cardinals still have to face the Rams, Cowboys, and Seahawks twice. The 7-1 Rams still have four challenging divisional games and road games against top contenders in the Packers and Ravens. The 7-1 Packers don’t face quite the same gauntlet as those NFC West teams, but Aaron Rodgers’s positive COVID-19 test and unvaccinated status throw a wrench in the team’s competitiveness in the short term. The Cowboys will be the most formidable team to overcome. Still, if Dak Prescott picks up another knock, we know they will readily bench him and forego immediate results in exchange for keeping their franchise investment healthy.

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers are dealing with a burdensome number of injuries, and the bye week should help them get some key starters healthy. Top cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis are eligible to return from Injured Reserve in Week 10 following Tampa’s bye week, which would greatly help fortify their defense which hasn’t been quite as good as last year. In addition, the team will hope to have Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski back in Week 10 to help the offense improve, while improved health for Lavonte David and Jason Pierre-Paul will help improve the front seven. In short, this is a well-timed bye week for a veteran team to get right ahead of their stretch run. Tampa had a Week 13 bye last year and did not lose another game in the regular season or postseason following their bye.

According to Tankathon, the Buccaneers have the fifth-easiest schedule remaining in the NFL. They get to play the Giants, Jets, Colts, Falcons, and Washington down the stretch, as well as two games against a suddenly reeling Carolina team. Tampa will also have something to prove in a home rematch against their divisional rival in the Saints. I don’t believe it’s a stretch to say the Buccaneers could only lose one more game throughout the remainder of the season, perhaps against the Bills, but they may go undefeated following the bye if they can get their team back to full strength. With Tom Brady leading a talented roster with depth on both sides of the ball, I’m backing the Buccaneers at a great value to finish as the #1 seed in the NFC.