2021 NFL MVP Odds
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s crazy to think that Tom Brady has been in the NFL for 22 seasons and has only won three MVPs, and this could be the season he wins his fourth. Coming off his seventh Super Bowl Championship and with his “Man in the Arena” docuseries debuting, Brady is on top of the world. One more MVP trophy would hardly make a dent in his trophy cabinet, but he’s arguably the most deserving candidate and will likely lead the NFL in passing yardage.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
While Rodgers has his fair share of critics of his decision-making relating to COVID-19 and the handling of his relationship with the team’s front office over the offseason, there’s no doubt that Rodgers has been one of the very best quarterbacks in the NFL this year. If the Packers can go on a hot streak and earn the #1 seed in the NFC by the end of the year, it would not be shocking to see Rodgers win the MVP.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have weirdly become more of ball control, defensive juggernaut lately, which is not what we’re used to seeing from Patrick Mahomes-led teams. Whether you look at raw metrics or advanced statistics, Mahomes has not been at his best this season, and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he wins the MVP, despite the relative team success of the Chiefs.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Things haven’t always been perfect in Matthew Stafford’s first season in Los Angeles, but he’s been on fire lately and the win over the Cardinals was a signature moment for this team. Stafford will be among the league leaders in passing yardage and touchdowns by the end of the season, and if the Rams can make a surprise push to win the NFC West, he will have a decent chance at the MVP this season.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
I was surprised to see Murray near the top of the MVP odds chart after missing three games this year, but that’s a good indication of how weird this MVP race has been – nobody has stood out from the pack and been able to run away with the award. Murray is arguably the best offensive weapon in the NFL, and if he can put up a few huge performances before the end of the year, he could steal the MVP despite his missed games.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
In his second season in the NFL, Justin Herbert has been playing as well as any quarterback in football, and the Chargers are rolling at the moment. If they can steal the AFC West from the Chiefs and Herbert keeps up his excellent play, he could make a dark horse bid at the MVP. Herbert wouldn’t quite be the youngest MVP ever – Lamar Jackson still holds that record – but he would come very close.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
The MVP favorite for most of the early part of the season, Josh Allen’s odds have fallen recently as his Bills have been inconsistent in terms of wins and losses. Allen has regressed somewhat from last year’s mega-breakout campaign, and while he’s still one of the more talented passers in the NFL, his mistake-prone and often erratic downfield passing have held back what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Already a shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year after coming back from his gruesome ankle injury last year, Dak Prescott is making a solid case to be the MVP as well. The Cowboys have been as up-and-down as any team this season, however, and Prescott hasn’t quite been at his best lately as speculation surrounding his previously injured calf continues to fly.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Running backs don’t typically win MVP, especially in this pass-happy modern NFL, but Jonathan Taylor is producing at a historical level this year. The lack of team success for the Colts will likely keep Taylor from winning the MVP, and Indianapolis could still miss the playoffs depending on how the rest of the year goes, but Taylor is a top contender for Offensive Player of the Year.