NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds 2022-23: Could We See Another WR In Justin Jefferson?

After one of the most memorable free agency periods in recent memory, there are a number of players who are looking to take home the prestigious Offensive Player of the Year award for their new teams. With a seemingly wide-open field, take a look at some of our favorite betting picks, including the favorites, the sleepers, and the “dark horse” candidates for OPOY this upcoming 2022-2023 NFL season.

NFL Offensive Player Of The Year Odds

Shop NFL Offensive Player Of The Year Odds across all major sportsbooks. 

2021-22 Offensive Player Of The Year Recap

The LA Rams certainly got the most out of wideout Cooper Kupp last year as he secured the fourth receiving “triple crown” in league history by tallying 145 catches (1st), 1,947 receiving yards (1st), and 16 receiving touchdowns (1st) on his way to winning the Offensive Player of the Year award. While certaintly not the favorite at xxx odds prior to the start of the season, Kupp followed up his electric regular season with a Super Bowl winning performance in Super Bowl 56 where he caught 8 passes for 93 yards and two touchdowns.

Offensive Player Of The Year Historical Analysis

Kupp is only the third wide receiver to win OPOY since the NFL began giving out the award in 1972. While New Orleans Saints wide out Michael Thomas won the award in 2019, one would have to turn back the history books to 1987, when San Francisco 49er Jerry Rice first took home the trophy, and then to 1993, when Rice won the award again. These players are historical anomalies though, as 20 quarterbacks and 26 running backs make up the rest of the pack of past OPOY winners.

How to Approach Offensive Player Of The Year Betting

The NFL is undoubtedly a quarterback-driven league. However, the wide receiver position is worth an extra look coming off of the hottest free agent market for the position group in recent memory. With massive contracts being handed out left-and-right in order to poach wide receivers, expect teams to try and justify their new investments right away. While one primary back will dominate offenses like the ones employed by the Titans and Colts, many teams have utilized multiple back offensive schemes in both the run game and passing game in recent memory. That being said, the odds historically favor picking either a quarterback or a running back for OPOY. 

Note: It’s always important to factor in injury history as missing games obviously does not bode well for any potential candidate for OPOY. If possible, try to pick players that are dynamic and ones that can fill the stat sheet in dual-roles (think pass-catching running backs, running quarterbacks, etc.). And remember: not all OPOYs come from championship or even playoff-contending teams.

Offensive Player Of The Year Favorites

Jonathan Taylor ()

One could easily make the argument that Jonathan Taylor was equally as deserving of the 2021 OPOY award as Cooper Kupp was. In fact, most sportsbooks had Kupp and Taylor neck-and-neck at -110 odds-on-favorites as late as week 17, the last week of the NFL regular season. If it wasn’t for a lack-luster team effort in a playoff-killing loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Jonathan Taylor easily could have won the award. Taylor ran for 1,811 yards (1st) and 18 touchdowns (1st) on 332 touches (1st) while adding 360 yards as a pass-catcher. Taylor eclipsed 100 yards rushing in 10 of 17 games played and scored more than one touchdown in four of those games, including a season-high total of four rushing touchdowns for all running backs. Bolstered by one of the league’s best offensive lines entering next season, expect Taylor to have plenty of room to run wild in an upgraded Colt’s offense in a make-it-or-break-it year for head coach Frank Reich.

Cooper Kupp ()

While no player has won back-to-back OPOY awards since Marshall Faulk three-peated from 1999 to 2001, Cooper Kupp is worth a hard look despite the Rams adding former Pro-Bowl wideout Allen Robinson to the receivers group via free agency. With Odell Becckham Jr. gone (for now) though, Kupp will surely remain the focal point of this offense while Robinson fills into the #2 spot. With the defense retooled with Aaron Donald back alongside the new addition of Super Bowl XLIX MVP Bobby Wagner, expect the Rams to continue their championship-level success behind a shut-down defense and a high-scoring offense built around the reigning OPOY Kupp.

Derrick Henry ()

Despite missing nine games last season, King Henry still finished in the top ten for rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Let that sink. Before he was injured, Henry was on pace to eclipse 2,000 yards rushing and would’ve had a great shot at taking home back-to-back OPOY awards. After trading away star receiver A.J. Brown to the Eagles for draft picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, expect Henry to take on more carries and a bigger share of the offensive “load” as Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill will have to build new chemistry with the teams new additions at wide receiver. While the move to trade away Brown was a “head-scratcher,” cash-in on the Titans lapse of judgment if you think Henry can continue to bulldoze his way through opposing defenses like usual.

Sleepers

Josh Allen ()

To be clear: no one is sleeping on Josh Allen. At least, not any more. After leading the Bills to the playoffs for a second consecutive year, Allen has established himself as one of the best passing and running quarterbacks in the NFL. This skill-set was on full-display in the AFC Championship game when Allen bulldozed his way through a talented Kansas City Chiefs defense, putting up 68 yards on the ground while passing for 329 and 4 touchdowns through the air. Seemingly a coin-flip away from a second consecutive AFC Championship berth, the Bills added another weapon for Allen in Georgia RB James Cook via the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Adding a pass-catching, every-down back to an already loaded offense led by Allen seems like absolute trouble for the AFC East and the rest of the NFL. Allen is worth an extra look at these odds.

Nick Chubb ()

With rumors of a potential season-long suspension for new quarterback Deshaun Watson circling, the Cleveland Browns offense must be prepared to go “all in” on a Nick-Chubb led offense. That’s not a bad thing though, as Chubb ran for 1,259 yards (2nd) and 8 touchdowns (10th) on just 228 carries (8th) last season. While the Browns have a great second-string back in Kareem Hunt, the lack of a true starting quarterback will inevitably increase Chubb’s carries behind a talented offensive line group. If you’re willing to bet that Watson will be suspended for a long period of time, make sure to capitalize on these odds before any potential drop in value due to any premature suspension announcement.

Lamar Jackson ()

In a contract year, Lamar Jackson offers tremendous value at +2500 depending on how you think the Ravens offense will perform without Jackson’s favorite receiver Marquise Brown. Trading away the erratically-performing receiver to the Cardinals for a first-rounder that was used on Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum, the Ravens added much-needed protection for their super-star quarterback. This protection will ultimately make-or-break this bet as the dual-threat quarterback already has a deep-threat weapon in wide receiver Rashod Bateman and a loaded running back group in J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and newcomer Mike Davis. If his protection holds up, expect Lamar’s numbers to emulate more of 2020 rather than those of 2021.

Dark Horses

Justin Jefferson ()

Don’t be surprised if Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson puts up the most receiving yards of any wide out next season. Last season, Jefferson was the focal point of the Vikings offensive attack alongside running back Dalvin Cook. Despite having another offensive star to carry the load, Jefferson made the best out of his situation by “showing-out” with 108 receptions (4th) for 1,616 yards (2nd) and 10 touchdowns (T-6th). Jefferson is a rare player that seems to have figured the game out very early on. At +2500, Jefferson is worth some consideration as he has made Kirk Cousins look like a top twelve quarterback in the league.

Kyler Murray ()

Kyler Murray had an interesting offseason to say the least. After getting shut-down 34-11 by the Super Bowl-winning LA Rams in the divisional playoffs last season, Murray took the offseason to leverage contract extension talks by deleting all Cardinals-related content from his social media accounts. While Murray’s antics dissipated after the organization promised him an extension, one would hope that these issues can be resolved before the season and not distract the team further. Let’s not forget: the Cardinals were a league-best 10-2 before dropping four of the last five games of the regular season last year. When he’s willing to use his legs, Murray is truly a dynamic quarterback that can split opposing defenders with ease. The big question remains if he’s still willing to use his legs, especially without a new contract finalized, as his 423 yards rushing last season was the lowest total of his career so far. If Murray gets his extension, or plays for it, then these odds look even better considering his receiving core of Deandre Hopkins (out six games), Marquese Brown, A.J. Green, and Zach Ertz. It’s hard not to imagine this team excelling and getting farther in the postseason than last season.

JaMarr Chase ()

Is it a stretch to say that last year’s offensive rookie of the year, Ja’Marr Chase, is already one of the league’s best receivers? Looking at the numbers, it doesn’t appear that way. With only 81 catches (20th), Chase tallied up 1,455 yards (4th) and 13 touchdowns (3rd) and that’s not even counting his multiple 100+ yard games in the playoffs. Don’t expect a sophomore slump for the young super-star either, as Chase’s chemistry with his college-turned-professional quarterback Joe Burrow may be the best in the league of all quarterbacks and receivers. If you’re willing to take a risk, this bet could pay off big.