NFL Team Win Total Odds 2020-21

The 2020-21 win totals are out, although we could see some changes with the NFL Draft still to occur and many free agents up for grabs. So far there are five teams with double-digit win totals, and three teams have under a six win total. With a lot of teams hovering around the 8-9 range, it is going to put a few in some tough decisions early. We can get a general idea of what the NFL schedule will look like, but we are not sure the exact details. This could change some odds and totals slightly as well.

2019 Vs 2020 Differences

There is some value looking at 2019 win totals in comparison to 2020, as you can tell which teams are expecting to make a jump or fall down a bit. Baltimore is one of the bigger ones, who had just an eight win total last season. They destroyed that winning 14 games. Carolina had an eight win total, and with no strong quarterback play they struggled. A win total set at 6.5 is a bit more appropriate, especially with the shape that defense is in. I will talk more about the Colts, but a 9.5 win total was set in 2019, and this year it is at 7.5. Both the Chargers and Rams had ten win totals last season, and the Chargers are down to 7.5 this year. San Francisco went from an 8.5 win total to 10.5 this year, and they will face a tough schedule.

Teams that fell way over their win total were Baltimore, Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco, and Seattle. Cincinnati, Detroit, Los Angeles Chargers, and Washington were three or more games under their win total for 2019. Washington saw a one win drop in 2020, where Detroit saw a .5 drop. The Chargers gave a drop going to 7.5.

2020 Over Bets

Detroit Lions Over 6.5 Wins (-150)

As long as Matthew Stafford returns in full health, the Detroit Lions are in a terrific bounce back spot after a down year. They went 3-12-1 with Stafford missing the second half of the season. Detroit will come in with potentially some strong adds from the NFL Draft to make an impact right away. T.J. Hockenson, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay suit up as a strong core around Stafford as well. The defense should improve, and the biggest positive for them is that they will play a fourth place schedule. While the NFC North featured two playoff teams, both the Vikings and Packers had their issues. Chicago also took a step back. Detroit is capable of splitting the division, and picking up wins in what should be a pretty easy out of division schedule. Carolina, Arizona, Washington, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville will be in the mix.

Indianapolis Colts Over 7.5 Wins (-140)

Indianapolis went 7-9 last season with losses to Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Miami. These were poor losses, and they had winnable games against Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. This was a team that won on the road against Kansas City last season. The defense is going to keep getting better as it is at its best point over the past few years. Health is going to be the big question mark with T.Y. Hilton struggling to stay healthy the last two years. Now there are still some question marks at quarterback. Jacoby Brissett is most likely going to be the name to keep starting, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they added a quarterback in the draft. With three draft picks within the top 60 picks, the Colts can address some major needs. They also have money to spend in free agency. Indy is in good shape to improve and take on a third place schedule and still a division they can come out over .500 against. The Jets, Raiders, Bengals, Browns, and Bears are winnable out of division games.

Dallas Cowboys Over 9 Wins (-125)

While the Cowboys have some contract situations to figure out, this is a team that should have made the playoffs last year. They had one possession losses against New Orleans, Minnesota, and New England. They did not perform well against a few teams like Buffalo, Chicago, and Green Bay. I still find that they will have four wins within the division facing New York and Washington, even though they should improve in 2020. The Mike McCarthy hiring might be a lateral move, but Kellen Moore was a bright spot with those offensive weapons. 4-5 wins within the division gives them advantage for hitting their mark in what will be a slightly easier schedule. They will see the Bengals, Cardinals, Browns, Steelers, Rams, Seahawks, Falcons, and Vikings as out of division games. The first four are certainly winnable games.

2020 Under Bets

Denver Broncos Under 8 Wins (-105)

The Broncos ended up finishing second within the division last season, which means a second place schedule. Already facing the Chiefs twice, it is tough to see them pulling one win there. The Chargers and Raiders are still in their range of competition, even with Philip Rivers out of town. Denver will have Buffalo, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New England, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee as out of division games. I look for them to struggle against most of these teams. While Drew Lock has an exciting future, this team is still young and are probably a year away still. The defense also has a few needs to address. Eight wins seems a bit too high, where they predict to finish 6-7 wins again.

San Francisco 49ers Under 10.5 Wins (+100)

After making a remarkable jump from 2018 to 2019, the win total now reflects this was a Super Bowl team. Needing 11 wins, the prior 13-3 team will have a tough schedule ahead of them. They are also playing in an extremely tough division with the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals. San Francisco had some easy games with the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers (No Roethlisberger), Carolina, and Washington. Playing the division twice is going to be rough already, but the 49ers will also take on Dallas, New England, Philadelphia, Buffalo, New Orleans, and Green Bay. They will take on both New York teams, Miami, and Washington, so there is a chance to pick up some easy wins. The 10-11 mark is going to be where they project, and I like the under.