With the NFL schedule released, the draft over, and most of the free agents signed, we can dive into the 2020-21 NFL win totals on FanDuel Sportsbook. While they were released a few months ago, we have seen some slight changes now that rosters are slightly more finalized and the schedule in order. Over the next few months odds can still shift, although training camps are likely going to be delayed and preseason plans are still up in the air.
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2019 Vs 2020 Differences
There is some value looking at 2019 win totals in comparison to 2020, as you can tell which teams are expecting to make a jump or fall down a bit. Baltimore is one of the bigger ones, who had just an eight win total last season. They destroyed that winning 14 games. Carolina had an eight win total, and with no strong quarterback play they struggled. A win total set at 5.5 is a bit more appropriate, especially with the shape that defense is in. I will talk more about the Colts, but a 9.5 win total was set in 2019, and this year it is at 8.5. Both the Chargers and Rams had ten win totals last season, and the Chargers are down to 7.5 this year. San Francisco went from an 8.5 win total to 10.5 this year, and they will face a tough schedule. Teams that fell way over their win total were Baltimore, Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco, and Seattle. Cincinnati, Detroit, Los Angeles Chargers, and Washington were three or more games under their win total for 2019. Washington saw a one win drop in 2020, where Detroit saw a .5 drop. The Chargers gave a drop going to 7.5.
2020 Over Bets
Detroit Lions Over 6.5 Wins (-150)
With Matthew Stafford returning in full health, the Detroit Lions are in a terrific bounce back spot after a down year. They went 3-12-1 with Stafford missing the second half of the season. Detroit will come in with potentially some strong adds from the NFL Draft to make an impact right away. T.J. Hockenson, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay suit up as a strong core around Stafford as well. While they lost Darius Slay, they brought in the top corner in the draft to help. I would expect a lot of shootout style wins, but the schedule sets up nicely as the Lions rank inside the top five for easiest schedule in 2020.
The crucial aspect of of Detroit hitting the over here will be stealing a few games within the division. Chicago is certainly a splittable series, and the Packers and Vikings both had their inconsistencies. Green Bay is also a team I project to regress quite a bit from their 13-3 2019 record. However the road game against the Jaguars is not a bad away game for them to grab, and the same goes for the Panthers and Titans. They also have a home game against Washington. Even the middle tier teams like Indianapolis, Atlanta, and Houston are winnable games for the Lions.
Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 Wins (-160)
Indianapolis went 7-9 last season with losses to Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Miami. These were poor losses, and they had winnable games against Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. This was a team that won on the road against Kansas City last season. The defense is going to keep getting better as it is at its best point over the past few years with adding to the defensive line. Health is going to be the big question mark with T.Y. Hilton struggling to stay healthy the last two years, but the addition of Michael Pittman gives them another young wide receiver. We will still have to see if Philip Rivers has anything left in the tank, but a great offensive line, and a coaching staff that is going to get the best out of their weapons is a plus. It also doesn’t hurt that they have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL.
Indianapolis will have one of the easier division schedules, which has always been an advantage for them. Jacksonville is projected to be one of the worst teams in the league, while Houston is a major question mark now that they lost DeAndre Hopkins. The out of division schedule s not bat at all, taking on the Jets and Bengals both at home, which are two very winnable games. They also have the Raiders on the road. At Chicago and Cleveland are more of a toss up but both games should be obtainable wins.
Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins (-125)
Kansas City is coming off a Super Bowl season, and the schedule does not set up for a Super Bowl hangover. The Chiefs are the favorites in the latest Super Bowl odds with the Ravens on their heels. The Chiefs walked into a perfect year as they will face the Texans without their star receiver and a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball for the opening week. They will get the Patriots who are without Tom Brady and have an offense that will fail to keep up with the Chiefs. They also have a major leg up on anyone in the division. While Denver has added some offensive additions, the Chiefs defense is going to face Drew Lock, Tyrod Taylor, and Derek Carr as their division quarterbacks. Five-six wins against the division is a likely mark for Kansas City. They also have easy games against the Falcons, Dolphins, Panthers, and Jets. The only tricky games for Kansas City is on the road against Buffalo and New Orleans. Then at home against Baltimore. Three toss up games and that is it. When you have Pat Mahomes and this offense, 12+ wins is in the bank.
Honorable Mentions: Pittsburgh Steelers Over 9 (-110)
2020 Under Bets
Denver Broncos Under 7.5 Wins (-110)
I like what the Broncos did over the offseason, adding plenty of weapons for Drew Lock. However, I believe Denver is more of a next year team in comparison to winning eight or more games this season. The Broncos ended up finishing second within the division last season, which means a second place schedule. Already facing the Chiefs twice in the division, and taking on a brutal Chargers defense, that puts a lot of their division games up in the air. They have games on the road against the Jets, Patriots, and Steelers within the first few weeks of the season. Three tough defenses for a young quarterback to take on. They also have Tampa Bay at home. They go on the road to face the Falcons, and have a home game against the Saints and Bills. These are not games I love for the Broncos, even though Atlanta is more of a tossup. The truly winnable games are Las Vegas twice, Carolina, and Miami. The rest are tossup games or ones they are going to be heavy underdogs in.
New York Jets Under 6.5 Wins (-105)
The New York Jets have a brutal schedule this year, and Tom Brady being out of the AFC East doesn’t provide much a lift for the Jets. They open up on the road against the Bills, and within their division the Patriots and Bills are bringing two of the top defenses in the league against an offense that lacks firepower. The Jets take on some other top half defenses like San Francisco, Denver, and Los Angeles Chargers. They have road games against the Chargers, Rams, Colts, Chiefs, and Seahawks. Home games against the Broncos, Browns, and Cardinals are not given wins. While the defense might help keep them in some games, the offense is still the major question mark for me, and against this defensive schedule it is going to be tough for them to put up points.
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