NFL Week 1 Betting Results & Trends: Underdogs Dominate, Road Teams Thrive
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Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season has come and gone, and as we’ve grown accustomed to now, the unexpected can and will happen. As the world of sports betting continues to grow and evolve in the United States, with individual states launching their legalized sports betting markets, online sportsbooks are seeing tons of action from all over the country. Let’s look at some of the big betting trends from Week 1 of the season and how they will impact betting moving forward.
Records So Far This Season
Week 1 NFL Betting Records
- Favorites: 6-10 straight up, 4-12 against the spread
- Over/Under: under is 9-7
Underdogs Dominate
While there are upsets every week of the NFL season, Week 1 was particularly insane in terms of underdogs winning as they won 10 of the 16 matchups. The Texans beat the Jaguars 37-21, and the Saints beat the Packers 38-3 in two more surprising upset victories. If you had bet $10 on the underdog in every game in Week 1, you would be up to $60 overall with a 37.4% return on your investment. Underdogs went 4-12 against the spread, as well.
Road Teams Thrive
The NFL has fans back in stadiums this season after there were no fans in the wake of COVID-19, and most analysts expected the return of fans to impact the success of home teams heavily. However, road teams went 8-7 straight up and 9-6 against the spread (not including Packers vs. Saints, which was played in Jacksonville in the wake of Hurricane Ida). Among the most impressive road wins were a 38-13 Cardinals victory over the Titans and a 28-16 Seahawks win over the Colts.
West Teams Wrap Up
Before the season, we expected the NFC West and, to a lesser extent, the AFC West to be among the best divisions in the NFL. Well, so far, so good, as the West teams are 8-0 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. The 49ers suffered one of the all-time shocking backdoor covers against the spread as the Lions came back late in the game. The teams who are forced to play the two West divisions this season will be in for a tough time.
Public Money Suffers
With all of the road upsets, underdog victories, and low-scoring contests, it wasn’t shocking to see the public struggle to win their bets. Only five teams receiving over 50% of the bets in their respective games covered the spread – the Broncos, Panthers, Seahawks, Rams, and Chargers. Some of the notable big-money losing bets were a $110,000 bet on the Colts +2.5 at BetMGM, a $110,000 bet on the Packers -3.5 at BetMGM, a $120,000 bet on the Giants Moneyline at Caesars, and a $100,000 bet on the Packers Moneyline at FanDuel.
Detroit Lions Backdoor Cover
The 49ers opened as 7.5 or 8-point favorites depending on the sportsbook, but the line got pushed to 9 or 9.5 points by the time the game started with at least 70% of bets and 75% of the money wagered on San Francisco to cover. WynnBET reported 96% of the money wagered on the 49ers, and Caesars reported 83% of the money on San Francisco. The 49ers had leads of 38-10 and 41-17 late in the game before the Lions scored 16 straight points late and ultimately lost by 8 points. That was an all-time backdoor cover that surely lost some bettors some big money.
Green Bay Packers Shocking Loss
The Packers were one of the most popular teams to bet on heading into Week 1. DraftKings reported 87% of bets and 92% of the money on Green Bay, while BetRivers reported that the Green Bay spread generated the largest handle of any individual bet on the board. Aaron Rodgers did not come to play in Week 1, and Jameis Winston did as the Saints earned a 38-3 victory. The Packers will likely be heavily bet on again in Week 2 against the Lions, but this shock result should have plenty of bettors wary moving forward.
