NFL Week 10 Best Bets & Betting Picks: Fields & Bears To Stay Hot

Week 10 of the NFL season has arrived, and I have you covered in this article with all of the top plays against the spread. In addition, you can check out all of our player props articles and matchup previews. For further analysis on the games covered below and the rest of the weekly NFL slate, check out our YouTube page, as well. You can follow me on Twitter to see the latest plays I’m making for both college football and the NFL. Let’s get to work.

NFL YTD: 88-58.5 (60.1%)

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

If you’ve been following my work recently, you’ll know I’ve been enamored with the swift and brilliant rise of Justin Fields. I’ve always had belief in the Ohio State product, and while I’m a Michigan alumn, I’ve greatly enjoyed watching him break out.

Last week, Fields broke the quarterback rushing record with 168 yards, and the Dolphins had no answer for him as a scrambler. When they blitzed him, he threw three touchdowns against it per Next Gen Stats, and he constantly puts defenses in a bind as he leads the NFL in EPA on scrambles.

Over the last three weeks, the Bears have scored on a league-leading 53.1% of their drives. That came against the Cowboys (3rd in EPA allowed), Patriots (5th), and Dolphins (22nd). Now, they face the Lions who rank 32nd in defensive EPA. While they have young players starting to improve, Detroit’s defense will struggle.

This is a top 3 aesthetically cool looking ball fake, but watch how quickly Justin Fields hits the turbo pic.twitter.com/939BTOPcE0

— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) November 10, 2022

While the Bears’ defense hasn’t been worlds better, they do have one big advantage – Jared Goff has struggled mightily in the cold in his career, and his home-road splits this season are drastic:

Jared Goff at home: 261.4 passing yards per game, 7.5% touchdown rate, 103.4 passer rating

Jared Goff on the road: 244.7 passing yards per game, 1.0% touchdown rate, 72.1 passer rating

The Lions have averaged ten points per game on the road and 31.6 points per game at home this season. While the Bears aren’t an elite defense, they are well-coached and can do enough. In what should be a windy, cold Chicago afternoon, I fully expect the Bears to ride their suddenly elite ground game to a big home win.

If you’re looking to play the over, I don’t hate it, but the current number is fairly efficient and I’m not sure if I trust Goff to keep up his end of the bargain in the points scoring department. The Bears’ team total over is worth a look, but I’ll keep it simple and take the points with Chicago.

Best Bet: Bears -2.5 (play to -3)

New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Saints had been highly overrated in the market, and they were embarrassed on home turf by the Ravens on Monday night. Now, they travel to Pittsburgh on a short week to face a Steelers team coming off their bye week, setting this up as a very difficult situation for the Saints. To make matters worse, Mike Tomlin is 11-4 in his last 15 games off the bye and has won five straight.

If you look at this Steelers team on the surface, you’ll inevitably be disappointed. They sit at just 2-6 and are much closer to the #1 pick than they are to a playoff berth. However, they’ve faced the most difficult schedule in the league thus far by DVOA, and they’ve been thrust into some very disadvantageous situations.

Rookie Kenny Pickett was thrown into the fire as he replaced Mitchell Trubisky midgame against the Jets, who are perhaps the best defense in the NFL. From there, three of his four starts came against top defenses in the Bills (5th), Buccaneers (6th), and Eagles (2nd), all of whom are top six in pass defense DVOA.

It’s still not an easy matchup this week as the Saints rank 12th in pass defense DVOA, but the bye week will benefit Pickett greatly. It also helps that New Orleans ranks 28th in pressure rate, so he’ll have a clean pocket to work from.

The Saints also have a handful of key injuries in their secondary, making them easier to exploit. Before the bye, Pickett was starting to develop strong chemistry with fellow rookie receiver George Pickens, and I love this matchup for that connection to continue.

Despite a 2-6 season, we're going to be a little optimistic to start your Monday. Here's the Steelers top five moments of the first half of their year, headlined by this incredible grab by George Pickens. #Steelers https://t.co/CPsRqPQ8Hl pic.twitter.com/1q975gClQu

— Alex Kozora (@Alex_Kozora) November 7, 2022

Andy Dalton’s efficiency metrics have been solid overall, but the Steelers’ defense is getting healthier, and defending DPOY T.J. Watt is expected to make his return this week. Watt will be fired up to tee off on Dalton and he’ll be throwing against a secondary returning some key players, as well.

We took the Steelers at +3 earlier in the week, but I believe they win this game outright, and I would make them 2.5-point home favorites here. You can play it up to that number, but you won’t have to.

Best Bet: Steelers ML

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

We’re making history in Week 10 as this game will mark the first time in Aaron Rodgers’ career that he’ll close over a field goal underdog at home. A couple of weeks ago, we held our noses and backed this ugly Green Bay team as a ten-point dog against the Bills, and it certainly wasn’t pretty, but we got to the window.

The Packers haven’t played good football lately, but they’ve gotten rather unlucky in some of their games. They outgained the Lions by almost 150 yards last week, but went 0-4 in the red zone. They had more first downs and yards than the Bills. And they had one more first down and the exact same number of yards as the Jets. They lost those games by an average of 11 points.

The strength of the Cowboys’ defense is their pass rush, as they rank first in pressure rate, but they’ve faced several below-average offensive lines. With David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins both trending towards playing, the Packers’ offensive line is in the best shape it’s been all season, and Rodgers gets rid of the ball so quickly that it hardly matters.

While the receiving corps isn’t great, the Packers will be able to lean on their run game this week as the Cowboys rank 22nd in yards per carry allowed and 28th in PFF’s run defense grades. After leaving last week’s game with an injury, Aaron Jones should be good to go for this one. Green Bay ranks seventh in early down success rate, so they will be able to stay ahead of schedule.

Aaron Jones gained +30 rushing yards over expected against a Bills defense that allowed -100 RYOE in Weeks 1-7 (fewest in the NFL and the only defense under -60).

Jones gained 85 yards inside the tackles, his most in a game since Week 13, 2020.#GBvsBUF | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/GXYBaLrfT2

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 31, 2022

Dallas’s offense has had its ups and downs this season, and it obviously has a higher ceiling with Dak Prescott in the game. However, Green Bay still ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA and has a talented secondary featuring Jaire Alexander and Adrian Amos, among others.

In brisk 37 degree weather in Green Bay, we’re looking at a low-scoring game where it makes perfect sense to back the home underdog. While Mike McCarthy makes his return to Green Bay for the first time, I expect Rodgers to have a strong personal stake in this game. His weapons might be bad and the defense has had its struggles, but they’ll give Dallas a strong fight.

Best Bet: Packers +4.5 (play to +3.5) and sprinkle on ML

Top Teaser Legs for Week 10

In addition to my top spread plays above, I’m adding a couple of teaser legs that you can mix and match this week. With teaser legs, we want to make sure we’re crossing the key numbers of 3 and 7 in either direction. Therefore, teams that are favored by between 7.5-8.5 points or are dogs of 1.5-2.5 points provide us with the best value. I’ll give a brief analysis for each teaser leg below:

Seattle Seahawks +8.5: I don’t fully understand why the Seahawks are underdogs in this game, but like the Broncos game that I’ll write about below, we played this at +3 early in the week. If you can still get that number, I’m making a full-unit play there, and I also have a half unit on their Moneyline.

However, you can also use the Seahawks as a teaser piece this week. Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing touchdowns and completion percentage over expectation when given 2.5+ seconds in the pocket per Next Gen Stats, and Tampa Bay just lost its best pass rusher Shaquill Barrett. Smith has shown over the last two weeks that he knows how to beat the blitz, so that strategy won’t work either.

On the Tampa Bay side, absolutely nothing has come easy for their offense, and their run game has been nonexistent as they rank 31st in DVOA in that regard. They haven’t been able to gain margin on anyone as a result, and Seattle’s defense has been on the rise with young playmakers evolving over the course of the season.

https://twitter.com/BetMGM/status/1589381084067815425

Denver Broncos +8.5: If you follow me on Twitter, you were able to lock in the Broncos at +3 earlier in the week, and I’d still play it at that number if it returns. However, much of the market is now sitting at +2.5 for this game, and I’d rather tease the Broncos or take their Moneyline at a reduced risk with that number.

While the Broncos’ offense has struggled all season, their defense has been elite as they rank top five in overall DVOA, success rate, and EPA. While their run defense metrics aren’t as great as their pass defense metrics, they’ll be able to key in on Derrick Henry against either a hobbled Ryan Tannehill or Malik Willis.

If you included the Broncos in a teaser every week this season, you’d be highly profitable on that end. In their five losses, their average margin of defeat is just 5.4 points, and if you remove their nine-point loss to the Raiders, the average margin drops to 4.5 points. With the lowest total of the season to this point, this game is primed for teaser opportunities.

https://twitter.com/DP_NFL/status/1589782376456290306

San Francisco 49ers -1: Before the season began, the Sunday Night Football game between the Chargers and 49ers looked like it would be one of the best of the season. However, the Chargers haven’t come close to living up to the hype. Their injuries are beyond the breaking point, and it’s tough to imagine where their points will come from here.

With no Mike Williams or Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler will be the focal point of the passing offense, but the 49ers have been elite against pass-catching running backs due to the presence of All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. Add in the Niners’ elite pass rush against the Chargers’ banged up offensive line, and this won’t be easy for Justin Herbert.

Coming off the bye week, Kyle Shanahan will also have tons of new ideas for how to utilize Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk against an equally injured Chargers’ defense. This game profiles like a complete mismatch, and while the 49ers have a great chance to cover the seven-point spread, a teaser might be the best approach.

Christian McCaffrey's first TD as a 49er is a … 34-yard PASSING touchdown.pic.twitter.com/tnQYKZU25f

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 30, 2022

Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5: I already wrote about this game extensively above, so I’ll keep this fairly brief. We played the Steelers as 3-point home underdogs earlier in the week, and that was a great value. I still have high confidence in their Moneyline at plus odds, and they should be a very safe teaser piece as long as you can get them over the key number of 7 points.