NFL Week 10 Betting Trends: Road Underdogs Continue to Crush This Season

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The NFL continued to be commanded by upsets in Week 9, which led to another brutal week for the public sports betting community. In this weekly column, I break down some of the most interesting recent betting trends in the NFL as well as relevant trends relating to each upcoming matchup in hopes of helping you make better sports bets. As always, don’t treat these betting trends as gospel but use them to help better frame the way you’re looking at the upcoming games. Let’s dive in.

Interesting Trends This Season

In Week 9, underdogs went 7-6 straight up and 10-4 ATS to give them another incredible week of results. Over the past 30 days, underdogs are 40-30-1 ATS with a 57.1% success rate – it’s no wonder that sportsbooks have been cleaning house lately. Road dogs have been particularly profitable to bet on as they went 8-2 ATS in Week 9 to bring their record over the past 30 days to 26-16-1 ATS. So far this season, underdogs are 78-57-1 ATS with a 57.8% success rate, and road dogs are 51-31-1 ATS for a 62.2% rate. This trend has continued all year and should be heavily considered when placing bets as we head into the second half of the season.

Week 10 Betting Trends to Know

*Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, O/U 46.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

  • Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite
  • Ravens are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games against the Dolphins
  • Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games
  • Under is 5-1 in the Ravens’ last 6 road games
  • Over is 5-1 in the Dolphins’ last 6 games against a team with a winning record

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5 O/U 51) vs. Washington Football Team

  • Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss
  • Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss
  • Underdog is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams
  • Over is 7-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 10 games as a favorite
  • Over is 10-2 in Washington’s last 12 games against a team with a winning record

New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5, O/U 44.5)

  • Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after an ATS loss
  • Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall
  • Road team is 4-0 ATS in these teams’ last 4 meetings
  • Under is 5-1 in the Saints’ last 6 games after a straight up loss
  • Over is 8-2 in the Titans’ last 10 games in November

Buffalo Bills (-12.5, O/U 47.5) vs. New York Jets

  • Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against AFC East teams
  • Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog
  • Underdog is 9-3 ATS in these teams’ last 12 meetings
  • Under is 4-0 in the Bills’ last 4 games against a team with a losing record
  • Over is 5-0 in the Jets’ last 5 games overall

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots (-1.5, O/U 45.5)

  • Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
  • Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight up win of 14+ points
  • Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in New England
  • Over is 4-0 in the Browns’ last 4 games against a team with a winning record
  • Under is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games in November

Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys (-8.5, O/U 54.5)

  • Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win
  • Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall
  • Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Cowboys
  • Under is 6-0 in the Falcons’ last 6 games in Week 10
  • Over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games as a favorite

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (-10, O/U 47.5)

  • Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record
  • Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record
  • Jaguars are 10-1-1 ATS in these teams’ last 12 meetings
  • Under is 8-2 in these teams’ last 10 games in Indianapolis
  • Under is 5-1 in the Colts’ last 6 games against the AFC South

Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, O/U 42.5)

  • Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss
  • Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
  • Under is 5-1 in the Lions’ last 6 games overall
  • Under is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games following an ATS loss
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams

Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, O/U 53)

  • Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record
  • Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in November
  • Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Chargers
  • Over is 6-0 in the Vikings’ last 6 road games
  • Over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 games in November

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos (-3, O/U 44)

  • Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record
  • Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record
  • Under is 14-3 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in November
  • Under is 4-0 in the Broncos’ last 4 games following an ATS win
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5, O/U 49)

  • Seahawks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog
  • Packers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall
  • Home team is 4-0-1 in the last 5 games between these teams
  • Under is 5-0 in the Seahawks’ last 5 games as an underdog
  • Under is 6-0 in the Packers’ last 6 games overall

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, O/U 51.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

  • Chiefs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win
  • Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog
  • Home team is 7-2 ATS in these teams’ last 9 meetings
  • Under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last 4 games overall
  • Over is 10-0-1 in the Raiders’ last 11 games as a home underdog

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, O/U 48.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

  • Rams are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss
  • 49ers are 0-4 in their last 4 home games
  • Underdog is 4-0 ATS in these teams’ last 4 meetings
  • Under is 4-1 in the Rams’ last 5 games in November
  • Under is 4-0 in the 49ers’ last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record
I've been writing about sports for Lineups since the beginning of 2020 and on my own website since 2018. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. As the United States embarks on an exciting journey towards the legalization of sports betting, I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to cover industry news, NFL and NBA odds, and more.

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