NFL Week 11 Player Props

The NFL season rolls on with Week 11, highlighted by the anticipated matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills that could determine seeding in the AFC. 

Below, you’ll find a few recommended NFL player props to consider taking on the over or under on, or using in same-game parlays at your favorite sportsbook apps.

Nick Chubb Week 11 Player Prop Bets (CLE @ NO)

Over 60.5 rushing yards: Over -110 on FanDuel

• Coming off a blowout loss and a bye week, the Browns should be able to re-establish their identity as a run-first team with Chubb ramping up in his return from last year’s catastrophic knee injury. Not only is Chubb getting healthier, but Cleveland’s struggling offensive line should be much stronger, with Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and Jack Conklin all benefitting from the break. The New Orleans defense played better under interim coach Darren Rizzi in a Week 10 win, but this unit is still in the bottom tier, as it’s allowing a league-worst 182.6 rushing yards per game at 6.2 yards per carry in home games this season. The defensive line was overly aggressive last week against division rival Atlanta, generating three sacks, but that approach could backfire if the Browns stick to their ground game. 

SGP: 50+ rushing yards + anytime touchdown

• Chubb also has a great chance to find the end zone, and sportsbooks are offering even odds or slightly better (+110 at DraftKings) for him to score coming off the bye. The Browns faced the Ravens and Chargers before their break, two teams that rank among the top five in terms of the percentage of touchdowns they’ve allowed on the ground, with just one rushing TD allowed between them over the past three weeks. Chubb scored in his season debut against a weak Bengals defense, and now he draws his first plus matchup since that game.   

Travis Kelce Week 11 Player Prop Bets (KC @ BUF)

Over 65.5 receiving yards: Under -120

• The bigger the game, the more likely it is that Patrick Mahomes will lock onto his tight end in key situations. After a slow start to the season, Kelce has taken on a huge workload due to injuries to the rest of the Chiefs’ roster, generating double-digit targets in four of his last five games. If you remove a quieter game against Fred Warner and the 49ers, he’s caught 41 of 50 targets over his last four outings and has drawn 81 air yards per game over his last three starts. The Bills have great cornerbacks, but their defense is softer over the middle of the field. They also play zone coverage at the 10th-highest rate, and Kelce excels at finding holes in zones. Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most receptions (55) to tight ends this season and the eighth-most first downs (120) through the air. 

Kirk Cousins Week 11 Player Prop Bets (ATL @ DEN)

Under 243.5 passing yards: Under -120

• This number is surprisingly high given the matchup and the environment Cousins and the Falcons are walking into. The Broncos are coming off consecutive losses in which they gave up passing yardage to Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, but they’ve otherwise showcased one of the best secondaries in the NFL, allowing just 192 passing yards per game and the fewest yards per play (4.7) overall. Denver is also generating the fourth-highest sack rate (9.6%), and Cousins can’t move like those other quarterbacks. The Falcons are an indoor team playing in cold Denver, and Cousins averaged 49.6 fewer passing yards per game in starts outdoors over his past two seasons with Minnesota. He’s failed to clear this number in all five starts against opponents outside of the weak NFC South this season. 

D’Andre Swift Week 11 Player Prop Bets (CHI vs. GB)

Under 68.5 rushing yards: Over -130

• The Bears have made a change at offensive coordinator, with former passing game coordinator Thomas Brown moving into the play-calling role. That creates some uncertainty regarding their offense, and it could lead to a diminished role for Swift as a traditional runner. The elusive back has often been utilized as a receiver and is more effective in space. He’s averaging just 1.5 yards per carry against defensive fronts with eight defenders and 2.8 yards per carry against seven defenders in the box. It’s possible Brown gives more work inside the tackles to Roschon Johnson or calls more pass plays to get Caleb Williams going. Most of the rushing yards the Packers’ defense has allowed this season have come against powerful backs such as Joe Mixon and Saquon Barkley. Swift is a finesse player who only managed 23 rushing yards per game on 5.8 attempts over six matchups with the Packers when he played for the Lions, although he was quite productive as a receiver in those contests. 

Will Levis Week 11 Player Prop Bets (TEN vs MIN)

Over 14.5 rushing yards: Over -130

• Instead of backing the Titans to have success through the air against a pass-funnel defense, we can back their quarterback to scramble for a few yards against a blitz-happy team. Minnesota has allowed the fewest rush attempts and yards to opposing quarterbacks this season but has played a string of rather immobile quarterbacks in Mac Jones, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, an aging Aaron Rodgers, and an injured Jordan Love. Levis is not a great pocket passer, and he doesn’t read defenses particularly well, so we can expect him to take off when the Vikings throw confusing coverages his way. Levis has logged between three and five rushing attempts in all five of his full games this season, averaging 28.4 yards per game on the ground in those contests.