NFL Week 12 Predictions & Lines: Free NFL Betting Picks

Week 12 Lines

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Date/Time Games

My record this season: 109-48-1 SU, 91-65-2 ATS, 74-79-5 O/U

My record from Week 11: 8-6-0 SU, 10-4-0 ATS, 5-9-0 O/U

Thanksgiving Football

(3-7) Houston Texans @ (4-6) Detroit Lions

TV Info: 11/26/20, 12:30 PM EST, CBSdetroit lionshouston texans

Weather forecast: DOME, N/A

It’s about time we give Deshaun Watson some respect. It was a slow start to the season for the Texans’ quarterback as he struggled in three straight games against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers, three strong defensive teams. In Week 10, he also had a rough game with just 163 passing yards and 1 touchdown in absurd wind and rain conditions in Cleveland. Take out those four games, and Watson is on an impeccable 16-game pace of 5,141 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions – that’s undoubtedly MVP-level production from the quarterback. Watson dominated against an overrated Patriots’ defense as he threw for 344 yards and 2 touchdowns and completed 75.6% of his passes to earn an 86.4 QBR. Meanwhile, the Lions were shut out by the Panthers, who came into this game allowing 27.2 points per game, which would be the 10th-most in the NFL. The Texans’ defense has been pretty bad this season, now allowing the 10th-most points and the 2nd-most yards per game, but it’s hard to trust the Lions to score if they couldn’t do so against a defense that isn’t a whole lot better than this one. With injuries to Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola, and D’Andre Swift still limiting this team, the offense has stalled, and Matthew Stafford is struggling. He’s completing just 62.8% of his passes and has a QBR of 63 on ESPN, just the 21st-best among all starting quarterbacks. The Texans could be without Laremy Tunsil, their stalwart left tackle, this week, but the Lions have just 14 sacks in 10 games, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Watson will have room to roam around the pocket in this game, and his receiving weapons, headlined by Brandin Cooks (4-85) and Will Fuller V (6-80), had some great performances last week and should dominate against an overmatched Detroit secondary. Things are trending down for this Lions team while the Texans have won two of their last three games. Watson will be one of my favorite Thanksgiving DFS targets, and he’s going to dominate in this game and lead his team to another victory.

Matchup to watch: Deshaun Watson vs. Lions’ pass defense (allowing the 10th-highest passer rating this season)

Injury Report:

Houston Texans: OT Laremy Tunsil (illness) Q, OG Senio Kelemete (concussion) Q, WR Kenny Stills (quadriceps) Q, WR Randall Cobb (toe) O, CB Gareon Conley (ankle) IR eligible to return

Detroit Lions: WR Kenny Golladay (hip) Q, WR Danny Amendola (hip) Q, RB D’Andre Swift (concussion) Q, CB Jeff Okudah (shoulder) Q, DE DaShawn Hand (groin) Q, DE Julian Okwara (undisclosed) IR eligible to return, DE Trey Flowers (undisclosed) IR eligible to return

Betting Trends to Know:

Houston Texans: 3-7 SU this season, 3-7 ATS this season, the total has gone over in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games on the road

Detroit Lions: 4-6 SU this season, 4-6 ATS this season, the total has gone over in 10 of Detroit’s last 11 games at home

Odds: Lions -2.5, O/U 51.5

My prediction: Texans win 26-23, Texans cover, under 51.5 points

(3-7) Washington Football Team @ (3-7) Dallas Cowboys

TV Info: 11/26/20, 3:30 PM EST, FOXdallas cowboyswashington football team

Weather forecast: clear, 72° F, 10 mph wind

The Cowboys’ offense returned to some of its former glory this past week as Andy Dalton got back on the field and threw for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception. Amari Cooper led the way with 6 catches for 81 yards as CeeDee Lamb had 4 catches for 34 yards, including one of the highlight touchdown catches of the week. Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott finally had his first 100-yard rushing game of the season as he finished with 21 carries for 103 yards. Things won’t be as easy this week as the Cowboys have to face Washington’s stout defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest yards and the tenth-fewest points per game. The last time Dallas faced Washington, Dalton and the offense were held to just 12 first downs, 142 yards of offense, and 3 points in a pitiful effort. Washington racked up 6 sacks in that game, but the Cowboys have since seen Zack Martin return to the field and he helped hold Dalton to just one sack last week. Dallas is still without its top two offensive tackles, Tyron Smith and La’El Collins, both of whom are on Injured Reserve. However, Martin made his first career start at tackle last week and did a great job of keeping the pocket clean for Dalton. On the other side of the ball, Washington should have the opportunity to pick on a Dallas defense allowing 31.8 points per game, the most in the NFL. Alex Smith has continued to get more comfortable under center for this team as he gets further removed from his horrendous leg injury. The running back duo of Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic has been superb – they combined for 173 yards from scrimmage on 26 touches last week – and Terry McLaurin has five straight games with 5+ catches and 74+ yards. That trio of playmakers should succeed against the Cowboys and help Washington’s offense generate enough yardage to stay in the fight. This game could ultimately determine the winner of the NFC East, and while I don’t particularly trust either of these teams, I’ll pick the Cowboys to edge it out in a very close game.

Matchup to watch: Washington front seven (tied for third-most sacks) vs. Cowboys’ offensive line (allowing the eight-most sacks per game)

Injury Report:

Washington Football Team: WR Dontrelle Inman (hamstring) Q, OT Cornelius Lucas (ankle) Q, DE Ryan Anderson (knee) Q, LB Reuben Foster (knee) IR eligible to return

Dallas Cowboys: CB Anthony Brown (ribs) Q, C Tyler Biadasz (hamstring) IR, CB Trevon Diggs (foot) IR

Odds: Cowboys -3, O/U 46.5

Betting Trends to Know:

Washington Football Team: 3-7 SU this season, 4-5-1 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS in last 7 games vs. Cowboys, the total has gone under in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games

Dallas Cowboys: 3-7 SU this season, 2-8 ATS this season, 1-4 ATS in last 5 games at home, the total has gone under in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games

My prediction: Cowboys win 23-21, Washington covers, under 46.5 points

(6-4) Baltimore Ravens @ (10-0) Pittsburgh Steelers

TV Info: 11/26/20, 8:20 PM EST, NBCpittsburgh steelersbaltimore ravens

Weather forecast: overcast, 54° F, 6 mph wind

Prior to this season, many saw the Ravens as the team to beat in the AFC and a runaway favorite in the AFC North. However, with the Steelers at 10-0 and the Browns at 7-3, the Ravens’ chances of winning their division are slipping away, and with nine teams above .500 in the AFC, the playoffs are far from a lock at this point. Last week, the Ravens fell short against the Titans as Derrick Henry rushed for 133 yards on 28 carries and had a game-sealing 29-yard touchdown run in overtime as the Ravens’ defense was gassed by the end of the game. Lamar Jackson continues to struggle as he finished with just a 40.5 QBR against Tennessee, and he now has just a 62.2 QBR for the season, the 9th-worst among all qualified quarterbacks. When Baltimore faced Pittsburgh earlier in the season, Jackson was completed under 50% of his passes, was sacked four times, and threw two interceptions as he finished with an awful QBR of just 14.5. The team did rush for 265 yards on 47 carries in that game, but Pittsburgh is allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, and I don’t see Baltimore’s ground-game production as entirely replicable. Jackson will need to step up as a passer for the Ravens to win this game. With Mark Andrews basically the team’s only reliable receiver at this point, it’s not going to happen against the Steelers, who allow the third-fewest passing yards per game and the lowest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Offensively, the Steelers have been explosive, although JuJu Smith-Schuster may miss this game after suffering an ankle injury on Sunday. However, Diontae Johnson caught 12 balls for 111 yards, and Chase Claypool caught yet another touchdown, his eighth of the season. Ryan Tannehill was able to throw for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Ravens, so I’m expecting Pittsburgh’s passing game to be just fine. Ben Roethlisberger threw for just 182 yards the last time these teams played, but the Steelers were playing with the lead for much of the contest, and he was very efficient overall. The key to this game could be these offenses’ ability to stay on the field on third downs. Baltimore held Pittsburgh to just 3-9 conversions on 3rd down and are holding opponents to the third-lowest third-down rate in football. However, four turnovers for the Ravens effectively ended their chances of winning, and that can’t happen again against a Steelers team that leads the NFL in turnover margin. Ultimately, this is a game between two elite defenses, but I’ll pick the Steelers to pull out the win at home as the more efficient and balanced team. However, I expect the Ravens to take better care of the ball and keep this thing close, ultimately earning an ATS win.

Matchup to watch: Steelers’ pass defense (allowing the lowest passer rating) vs. Lamar Jackson (9th-worst QBR in the NFL)

Injury Report:

Baltimore Ravens: DT Brandon Williams (ankle) Q, DE Calais Campbell (calf) Q, RB J.K. Dobbins (COVID-19) IR, RB Mark Ingram (COVID-19) IR

Pittsburgh Steelers: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (toe) Q, RB Jaylen Samuels (quadriceps) Q, CB Joe Haden (undisclosed) Q, DE Chris Wormley (knee) Q

Betting Trends to Know:

Baltimore Ravens: 6-4 SU this season, 4-5-1 ATS this season, 1-4 ATS in last 5 games, 4-0-2 ATS in last 6 games when playing on the road vs. Pittsburgh, the total has gone over in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-0 SU this season, 8-2 ATS this season, 7-1 ATS in last 8 games, the total has gone under in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 November games

Odds: Steelers -4.5, O/U 45

My prediction: Steelers win 23-20, Ravens cover, under 45 points

Sunday Football

(3-7) Los Angeles Chargers @ (7-3) Buffalo Bills

TV Info: 11/29/20, 1:00 PM EST, CBSbuffalo billslosangeleschargersnew100X100

Weather forecast: clear, 41° F, 6 mph wind

The last time we saw the Bills on the field, they had their collective hearts ripped out on a 43-yard game-winning touchdown pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins. Aside from that being a devastating defeat from a mental perspective, it also left the Bills just a game ahead of the Dolphins in the AFC East. Buffalo needs to keep winning in order to stay alive, especially with a number of 6-4 teams hot on the trail of the playoffs. With wins over just the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets this season, the Chargers won’t be confused for a playoff contender, but they are also one of just three teams who has not lost by more than one score all year (Steelers and Chiefs). Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert continues to set the league on fire and is the early frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Last week against the hapless Jets, Herbert completed 37 of 49 passes for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns. The former Oregon Duck is now at 22 passing touchdowns this season, just 5 away from breaking the rookie record set by Baker Mayfield just a few years ago. Additionally, if Herbert maintains his current pace, he would break Andrew Luck’s record for most passing yards in a rookie season. He hasn’t just been good by rookie standards either – he ranks 8th in the NFL in passer rating. His emergence has coincided with Keenan Allen’s absurd statistics of 81 catches on 112 targets, both league-leading, for 835 yards and 6 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Herbert, the defense has been incredibly inconsistent as the Chargers have allowed 27.3 points per game, the ninth-most in the NFL. Last week, they allowed the Jets to score 28 points and nearly suffered an embarrassing comeback defeat as 22 of those points came in the second half. That bodes well for Josh Allen and friends as they are scoring the 11th-most points per game. Los Angeles could continue to be without Casey Hayward Jr. and Chris Harris Jr. this week, which would leave their secondary glaringly weak as they’re set to face Stefon Diggs, who has 73 catches for 906 yards (both second-most in NFL) and 4 touchdowns. John Brown has started to emerge in recent weeks, and Cole Beasley has been outstanding, especially in his last game in which he caught 11 balls for 109 yards and a touchdown. The Bills have done a tremendous job of putting offensive talent around Allen, and this passing game is likely going to give the Chargers all they can handle. However, with Herbert playing at a lights-out pace, I’ll pick the Chargers to cover the spread on the road here.

Matchup to watch: Stefon Diggs (2nd-most receptions and receiving yards) vs. Chargers’ secondary (both CHJs are questionable)

Injury Report:

Los Angeles Chargers: RB Kalen Ballage (ankle) Q, RB Austin Ekeler (hamstring) IR eligible to return, LB Drue Tranquill (ankle) IR eligible to return, TE Virgil Green (ankle) IR eligible to return, RB Justin Jackson (knee) IR eligible to return, CB Casey Hayward Jr. (groin) IR, DE Melvin Ingram (knee) IR

Buffalo Bills: DE A.J. Epenesa (head) Q, WR John Brown (ankle) O, OG Cody Ford (ankle) O, CB Josh Norman (COVID-19) IR, LB Matt Milano (pectoral) IR eligible to return

Betting Trends to Know:

Los Angeles Chargers: 3-7 SU this season, 4-5-1 ATS this season, 1-4 ATS in last 5 games, 4-1 ATS in last 5 games vs. Buffalo, the total has gone over in 8 of LA’s last 9 games on the road

Buffalo Bills: 7-3 SU this season, 5-5 ATS this season, 2-4 ATS in last 6 games, the total has gone over in 4 of Buffalo’s 5 games at home

Odds: Bills -5.5, O/U 54

My prediction: Bills win 30-27, Chargers cover, over 54 points

(7-3) Tennessee Titans @ (7-3) Indianapolis Colts

TV Info: 11/29/20, 1:00 PM EST, CBSindianpolis coltstennessee titans

Weather forecast: DOME, N/A

Both of these teams are coming off perhaps their most impressive wins of the season. The Titans went on the road and handled the Ravens in Baltimore for the second time in the calendar year of 2020, while the Colts stood their ground at home and held off Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Derrick Henry capped off an incredibly strong day with a 29-yard rushing touchdown for the win in overtime, while Rodrigo Blankenship delivered a game-winning field goal in overtime for the Colts. The last time these teams met, Indianapolis earned a surprising 17-point road victory over their divisional foe. The difference in that game wound up being on special teams as Stephen Gostkowski missed another field goal while Trevor Daniel shanked one punt and saw another punt blocked and returned for a touchdown. The Colts’ defense continues to play like one of the best units in the NFL as Darius Leonard, DeForest Buckner, Xavier Rhodes, and rookie safety Julian Blackmon have been outstanding this season. The defense forced a typically efficient Packers’ offense into 4 turnovers on Sunday, almost half of their total tally for the season. The Colts are allowing the fifth-fewest points and the second-fewest yards per game. Tennessee failed to score in the second half the last time these teams played as Ryan Tannehill had one of his worst games of the season, finishing with just 15 of 27 passing for 147 yards and a touchdown with a 43.4 QBR. Tannehill’s been much better than that for the duration of the season, and the receiving duo of A.J. Brown and Corey Davis has been outstanding, but Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries are both questionable for this game. Tennesee’s offensive line is also in shambles as Taylor Lewan is out for the year while Ty Sambrailo and Roger Saffold are dealing with significant injuries. Philip Rivers made some huge plays last week as his receiving corps is coming together, and rookie wideout Michael Pittman scored another touchdown with 3 catches for 66 yards. The Titans will be hungry for a win against the Colts after what happened between these teams a couple of weeks ago, but I trust Indy’s defense and special teams way more right now, especially as they are the much healthier team. Expect this game to be much closer than last time, but I’ll take the Colts to earn the season sweep.

Matchup to watch: Derrick Henry vs. Colts’ run defense (allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game)

Injury Report:

Tennessee Titans: TE Jonnu Smith (ankle) Q, S Kenny Vaccaro (concussion) Q, OG Roger Saffold (ankle) Q, C Ben Jones (knee) Q, LB Jayon Brown (elbow) O, RB Darrynton Evans (hamstring) IR eligible to return, OT Ty Sambrailo (undisclosed) O, WR Adam Humphries (concussion) O, CB Adoree’ Jackson (knee) O, TE MyCole Pruitt (knee) O, P Brett Kern (wrist) IR eligible to return, LB Jadeveon Clowney (knee) IR, LB Jayon Brown (elbow) IR

Indianapolis Colts: QB Philip Rivers (toe) Q, OG Quenton Nelson (back) Q, OT Braden Smith (thumb) Q, DE Kemeko Turay (ankle) Q, WR Zach Pascal (knee) Q, C Ryan Kelly (neck) O, LB Bobby Okereke (ankle) O, RB Jonathan Taylor (COVID-19) IR, DT DeForest Buckner (COVID-19) IR, WR Parris Campbell (MCL) IR eligible to return

Betting Trends to Know:

Tennessee Titans: 7-3 SU this season, 4-6 ATS this season, 1-4 ATS in last 5 games against Indianapolis, the total has gone over in 7 of Tennessee’s last 9 games

Indianapolis Colts: 7-3 SU this season, 6-4 ATS this season, 6-3 ATS in last 9 games, 5-1 SU in last 6 games at home, the total has gone over in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games

Odds: Colts -3.5, O/U 51

My predictions: Colts win 30-24, Colts cover, over 51 points

Update: DeForest Buckner is not playing in this game and I’m expecting Derrick Henry to dominate against a weakened Indianapolis defensive line, I’m switching this to the Titans winning

My updated predictions: Titans win 30-27, Titans cover, over 51 points

(4-7) Carolina Panthers @ (4-6) Minnesota Vikings

TV Info: 11/29/20, 1:00 PM EST, FOXminnesota vikingscarolina panthers

Weather forecast: DOME, N/A

Welcome to the NFL, P.J. Walker! In his first career game, Walker did enough to lead the Panthers to the win as he completed 24 of 34 passes for 258 yards and a key touchdown to Curtis Samuel, although he did throw two interceptions. Teddy Bridgewater was almost ready to play, and head coach Matt Rhule said his knee was good to go, but the team opted against it for precautionary reasons. This week, I expect to see Bridgewater back on the field, and he should be able to succeed against the Vikings, who have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season. With D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel in tow, Matt Rhule and Joe Brady’s offense has been very productive. The Panthers’ receivers should be able to win their one-on-one matchups across the board as the already-limited Vikings pass defense is set to be without a handful of cornerbacks again this week. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings’ offense has been solid but inconsistent. Adam Thielen has 11 receiving touchdowns, the most in the NFL, and had perhaps the catch of the week with his absurd one-handed end-zone grab – go check it out if you haven’t already seen it. Rookie Justin Jefferson has been very impressive with 45 catches for 848 yards and 4 touchdowns – with Adam Thielen expected to miss, he’ll be all-the-more important. Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in rushing yards per game and has put up 201 carries for 1,069 yards and 13 touchdowns in just 9 games. The Panthers did shut out the Lions last week, but Detroit was without three of its top playmakers in Kenny Golladay, D’Andre Swift, and Danny Amendola. The Vikings have a much more explosive offense and should be able to take advantage of a Carolina defense that allows opponents to convert on 51.8% of 3rd-down tries, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. Vegas still overrates the Vikings a bit, and the Panthers are a strong enough team to cover the spread on the road, and while this is a dome game, these two teams play with some of the slowest paces in the NFL – they both rank in the bottom five for offensive plays per game. I’ll take the Vikings in a close one and the under here.

Matchup to watch: Teddy Bridgewater vs. Vikings’ defense (allowing 2nd-most passing touchdowns this year, revenge game!)

Injury Report:

Carolina Panthers: OT Russell Okung (calf) Q, QB Teddy Bridgewater (MCL) Q, MLB Tahir Whitehead (ribs) Q, RB Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) O, CB Donte Jackson (toe) O

Minnesota Vikings: OT Ezra Cleveland (ankle) Q, CB Mike Hughes (neck) IR eligible to return, CB Holton Hill (foot) IR eligible to return, CB Mark Fields (chest) IR eligible to return, WR Adam Thielen (COVID-19) IR

Odds: Vikings -4.5, O/U 49.5

My predictions: Vikings win 24-23, Panthers cover, under 49.5 points

(7-3) Cleveland Browns @ (1-9) Jacksonville Jaguars

TV Info: 11/29/20, 1:00 PM EST, CBSjacksonville jaguarscleveland browns

Weather forecast: overcast, 74° F, 6 mph wind

We’re finally going to get to see the Browns play in a good weather game after three straight weeks of rain and wind and hellish conditions in Cleveland. The Browns are thrilled to have their top running back, Nick Chubb, back in action as he’s rushed for 100+ yards in both of his two games since returning from his injury. Kareem Hunt finished with just 13 carries for 11 yards last week, although he did score a touchdown, and this is quite clearly the best duo of running backs in the NFL who play behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Jaguars’ run defense has really struggled, and we should see another high rushing tally from the offense that has run for the third-most yards per game. Baker Mayfield has thrown for over 250 yards just once all year and hasn’t thrown a touchdown in over a month (3 matchups + the bye week), but I expect him to perform very well against this porous Jaguars’ defense that could also be without its top three cornerbacks in C.J. Henderson, D.J. Hayden, and Sidney Jones as well as their top edge rusher in Josh Allen. Mayfield hasn’t done great under pressure, but the Jaguars have just 9 sacks in 10 games, the fewest in the NFL, and Cleveland’s offensive line is going to dominate in this matchup. The Browns aren’t without their own defensive absences as Denzel Ward, Ronnie Harrison, and Greedy Williams are banged up in the secondary while Myles Garrett is dealing with COVID-19. Jake Luton was atrocious against the Steelers as he completed under 50% of his passes, threw four interceptions, and finished with a QBR of 12.4 as he led the Jaguars to just 3 points. Cleveland’s defense obviously isn’t nearly the same force as Pittsburgh’s, but unless Gardner Minshew returns this week, it’s hard to trust the Jaguars to score enough points to keep this game close. I’ll pick the Browns to keep their strong momentum rolling and for their offense to have its best performance in weeks in the warmth of Duval County.

Matchup to watch: Browns’ offensive line (allowing the 8th-fewest sacks per game) vs. Jaguars’ pass rush (fewest sacks in the NFL)

Injury Report:

Cleveland Browns: OG Wyatt Teller (calf) Q, DB Ronnie Harrison (knee) Q, CB Denzel Ward (calf) O, CB Greedy Williams (shoulder) IR, DE Myles Garrett (COVID-19) IR, FB Andy Janovich (COVID-19) IR, OT Chris Hubbard (COVID-19) IR, LB Simeone Takitaki (COVID-19) IR

Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Laviska Shenault Jr. (hamstring) Q, QB Gardner Minshew (thumb) Q, CB Sidney Jones (Achilles) Q, TE James O’Shaughnessy (knee) Q, WR Chris Conley (hip) O, OG Andrew Norwell (arm) O, WR D.J. Chark (ribs) O, CB D.J. Hayden (knee) O, DE Josh Allen (knee) O, CB C.J. Henderson (groin) IR

Betting Trends to Know:

Cleveland Browns: 7-3 SU this season, 4-6 ATS this season, 1-4 ATS in last 5 games, 1-9 ATS in last 10 games on the road, the total has gone under in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games

Jacksonville Jaguars: 1-9 SU this season, 4-6 ATS this season, 2-6 ATS in last 8 games, the total has gone under in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games

Odds: Browns -6.5, O/U 48.5

My predictions: Browns win 27-17, Browns cover, under 48.5 points

(3-7) New York Giants @ (2-7-1) Cincinnati Bengals

TV Info: 11/29/20, 1:00 PM EST, FOXcincinnati bengalsnew york giants

Weather forecast: clear, 46° F, 3 mph wind

It was a depressing moment for the Bengals when Joe Burrow went down on Sunday and was immediately carted off the field. Before anyone had reported on the severity of his injury, he tweeted out, “Thanks for all the love. You can’t get rid of me that easily. See ya next year.” It was later reported that he tore his ACL and MCL and also had additional knee damage. Ryan Finley took over at quarterback and completed just 3 of 10 passes for 30 yards and took 4 sacks – the Bengals’ offense is going to take a huge step back without Burrow under center. It’s especially problematic that Cincy has allowed 3.6 sacks per game, the second-most in the NFL. The Giants have a solid pass rush with the 11th-most sacks in the NFL – Leonard Williams has led the charge with 5 sacks in 10 games. The Giants are coming off a bye week after their 10-point home win over the Eagles in which Daniel Jones played some of his best ball of the season – he completed 21 of 28 passes for 244 yards and rushed 9 times for 64 yards and a touchdown to finish with a QBR of 92.2. The Bengals have allowed the 3rd-most passing touchdowns this season, so I would be expecting a strong game from Danny Dimes. The Bengals’ defense has also continued to take steps back, and injuries to key defenders Trae Waynes and D.J. Reader haven’t helped matters at all. The Giants are 5-0 ATS on the road this season, and the Bengals are going to need some time to adjust offensively to not having Joe Burrow, who has really kept them afloat. Ryan Finley led Cincy to an average of just 11 points per game as the starter last season, so I’ll pick the Giants to get this done.

Matchup to watch: Bengals’ offensive line (allowing 2nd-most sacks per game) vs. Giants’ pass rush (11th-most sacks this season)

Injury Report:

New York Giants: OG Kevin Zeitler (concussion) Q, S Xavier McKinney (foot) IR eligible to return, Adrian Colbert (shoulder) IR eligible to return, RB Devonta Freeman (ankle) IR, WR Dante Pettis (COVID-19) IR, OT Matt Peart (COVID-19) IR, TE Kaden Smith (COVID-19) IR, K Graham Gano (COVID-19) IR

Cincinnati Bengals: QB WR Mike Thomas (hamstring) Q, CB Mackensie Alexander (concussioN) Q, RB Giovani Bernard (concussion) Q, OG Xavier Su’a-Filo (ankle) IR eligible to return, DT D.J. Reader (quadriceps) IR eligible to return, CB Trae Waynes (pectoral) IR eligible to return, QB Joe Burrow (ACL, MCL) IR

Odds: Giants -5.5, O/U 42.5

My predictions: Giants win 20-13, Giants cover, under 42.5 points

(6-4) Arizona Cardinals @ (4-6) New England Patriots

TV Info: 11/29/20, 1:00 PM EST, FOXnew england patriotsarizona cardinals

Weather forecast: clear, 47° F, 5 mph wind

We have to stop talking about the Patriots’ defense as the same elite unit it’s been for the past several years. With injuries to key players and preseason opt-outs destroying this team’s talent, they aren’t the same squad at all. Deshaun Watson exposed them on Sunday as he completed 28 of 37 passes for 344 yards and 2 touchdowns and also carried the ball 6 times for 36 yards and 1 touchdown. Now, they have to face Kyler Murray, who is on pace for 31 passing touchdowns and 16 rushing touchdowns this season. The biggest issue for New England has been a complete lack of pass rush as they have just 13 sacks through 10 games, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. The cornerback duo of Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson has been one of the best in football, but it doesn’t matter if opposing quarterbacks have all day to sit in the pocket and find receivers downfield. Add that to Kyler Murray’s elite mobility and rushing production, and the Cardinals’ offense is set for a big day. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have been a strong rushing offense, but that didn’t come to fruition last week as they ran for just 86 yards as a team against the Texans’ defense that came in allowing the most rushing yards per game. Cam Newton has also struggled as he has just an 84.4 passer rating this year, the 7th-worst among qualified passers, and has just 4 passing touchdowns to 7 interceptions. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed an average of 31.5 points per game over the past month, but that came against the Bills, Dolphins, and Seahawks (twice), so I don’t expect the Patriots to have that same level of production. The Cardinals run the 6th-most plays per game, and I don’t expect the Patriots to be able to slow them down after what we saw from Deshaun Watson against this defense last week. I’ll also give a slight edge to the over here, as I think the Cardinals can push 30+ points on their own in this one.

Matchup to watch: DeAndre Hopkins (912 receiving yards, most in NFL) vs. Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson

Injury Report:

Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray (shoulder) Q, S Jalen Thompson (ankle) Q, OT Justin Murray (hand) Q, TE Darrell Daniels (ankle) Q, DT Corey Peters (kneecap) IR, DE Jordan Philips (hamstring) IR, WR Larry Fitzgerald (COVID-19) IR

New England Patriots: RB J.J. Taylor (undisclosed) Q, DT Adam Butler (shoulder) Q, WR Julian Edelman (knee) IR eligible to return, OT Isaiah Wynn (knee) IR, RB Rex Burkhead (ACL) O

Betting Trends to Know:

Arizona Cardinals: 6-4 SU this season, 5-5 ATS this season, 4-2 SU in last 6 games, the total has gone over in 6 of Arizona’s last 9 games against an AFC team

New England Patriots: 4-6 SU this season, 4-6 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS in last 7 games, the total has gone under in 5 of New England’s last 6 games at home

Odds: Cardinals -2.5, O/U 49.5

My predictions: Cardinals win 30-23, Cardinals cover, over 49.5 points

Update: Kyler Murray is still not at 100% and I don’t expect the Cardinals’ offense to be the same force this week, I’ll pick the Patriots at home as the Cardinals travel east in an early game and I’ll pick the under here as well

My updated predictions: Patriots win 20-17, Patriots cover, under 49.5 points

(6-4) Miami Dolphins @ (0-10) New York Jets

TV Info: 11/29/20, 1:00 PM EST, CBSnew york jetsmiami dolphins

Weather forecast: clear, 47° F, 5 mph wind

I expected the Dolphins to earn another victory on Sunday, but they dropped a road game to the Broncos as the duo of Tua Tagovailoa, and Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 23 of 38 passes for 200 yards with 1 touchdown (Tua) and 1 interception (Fitz). Tua was also sacked 6 times as he surprisingly struggled to get the ball out of his hands despite his impressive mobility and throw-on-the-run ability. We did see an impressive toe-tap touchdown from Tua to DeVante Parker early on in the game, but the offense stalled out otherwise and scored just 3 points in the second half. The Jets, meanwhile, had almost the opposite outcome as they scored just 6 points in the first half and 22 in the second half as they came back and made the Chargers sweat towards the end of the game. We shouldn’t expect that type of performance from the Jets offensively moving forward, though, as they score just 14.9 points per game, by far the fewest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are allowing just 20.2 points per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. While Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman had strong receiving games last week, it’s hard to imagine New York breaking the 20-point barrier against a defense that has been playing as well as any in the NFL over the past month. The real question is what we will see from Miami’s offense, and I expect to see Tua Tagovailoa get back on track this week. As a rookie QB, there’s going to be some ups and downs (unless you’re Justin Herbert, apparently), and Tua should find better success against the Jets, who allow the 3rd-most passing yards per game. Miami will come into this game hungry for a bounce-back win, especially with their standing at second place in the AFC East and one game behind the Buffalo Bills. The Jets have gone just 3-7 ATS this season, and there’s no real reason to expect that to change this week. I like the Dolphins to have a bounce-back week, especially on the defensive end, where they should shut down the underwhelming Jets.

Matchup to watch: Tua Tagovailoa vs. Jets’ pass defense (allowing 3rd-most passing yards per game)

Injury Report:

Miami Dolphins: RB Myles Gaskin (MCL) IR eligible to return, DT Christian Wilkins (COVID-19) IR

New York Jets: LB Blake Cashman (hamstring) Q, QB Sam Darnold (shoulder) Q, OT George Fant (ankle) Q, RB Lamical Perine (ankle) Q, S Bradley McDougald (shoulder) IR eligible to return, WR Chris Hogan (ankle) IR eligible to return

Odds: Dolphins -7, O/U 44.5

My predictions: Dolphins 23-13, Dolphins cover, under 44.5 points

(6-4) Las Vegas Raiders @ (3-7) Atlanta Falcons

TV Info: 11/29/20, 1:00 PM EST, CBSatlanta falconsoakland raiders

Weather forecast: DOME, N/A

I expected the Chiefs to boatrace the Raiders on Sunday Night Football in a measure of revenge for their one loss earlier this season. I was partially right, as Kansas City racked up 36 first downs, 460 yards of offense, and 35 points, but the Raiders hung around until the very end. Derek Carr had one of the best games of his career as he completed 23 of 31 passes for 275 yards and 3 touchdowns. He did throw one interception at the very end as Vegas looked to push the ball downfield, but otherwise, he played a damn near perfect game, especially considering a few of his incompletions were on drops by his receivers. Nelson Agholor finished with 6 catches for 88 yards and another touchdown as Darren Waller caught 7 balls for 88 yards and a touchdown. Jon Gruden has this offense playing inspired football, and while the defense struggled against Mahomes and company, they’re still pretty close to a league-average defense and will benefit from the expected return of a few key defenders who missed last week due to COVID-19. The Falcons are allowing the second-most passing yards per game and have allowed the 4th-most passing touchdowns, so I’m expecting Carr and his Vegas squad to score plenty of points. Atlanta is coming off just a 9-point effort on the road against the Saints as Matt Ryan threw two interceptions, took 8 sacks, and finished with a 19.3 QBR in an ugly game for him. Julio Jones clearly wasn’t himself as he finished with just two catches, and his potential absence this week would be catastrophic for Atlanta as Ryan’s performances are so strongly correlated with his top receiver’s health. Taysom Hill completed 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards in his first real career start at quarterback, so there’s no reason to believe the Falcons’ defense can put up any kind of a fight against Carr. The Raiders are going to score points in bunches, and with Julio not at 100%, I don’t expect the Falcons to keep up, even at home.

Matchup to watch: Derek Carr vs. Falcons’ pass defense (allowing 2nd-most passing yards per game)

Injury Report:

Las Vegas Raiders: RB Jalen Richard (chest) Q, DT Maurice Hurst (ankle) Q, DT David Irving (knee) Q, C Richie Incognito (Achilles) IR eligible to return, OT Trent Brown (COVID-19) IR, DE Clelin Ferrell (COVID-19) IR, FS Lamarcus Joyner (COVID-19) IR, LB Cory Littleton (COVID-19) IR

Atlanta Falcons: WR Julio Jones (hamstring) Q, DE Dante Fowler (COVID-19) IR, DB Jordan Miller (oblique) IR eligible to return

Betting Trends to Know:

Las Vegas Raiders: 6-4 SU this season, 7-3 ATS this season, 5-1 ATS in last 6 games, the total has gone over in 8 of Las Vegas’s last 10 games

Atlanta Falcons: 3-7 SU this season, 4-6 ATS this season, 1-4 ATS in last 5 games at home, the total has gone under in 5 of Atlanta’s last 7 games

Odds: Raiders -3, O/U 55

My predictions: Raiders win 33-23, Raiders cover, over 55 points

Update: The Raiders are going to be without some key offensive linemen in this game and I don’t feel great about projecting for them to score as many points as I did before – I’ll still pick them to win, but I’m backing the Falcons to cover and I’m picking the under in a closer, lower-scoring game than I originally expected

Updated prediction: Raiders win 27-26, Falcons cover, under 55 points

(8-2) New Orleans Saints @ (4-6) Denver Broncos

TV Info: 11/29/20, 4:05 PM EST, CBSdenver broncosnew orleans saints

Weather forecast: clear, 44° F, 6 mph wind

I picked against the Broncos last week, and they surprised me with one of their best defensive performances of the season in holding the Dolphins to 223 yards of offense and 13 points as they were forced to bench Tua Tagovailoa and look to Ryan Fitzpatrick for a late spark. Drew Lock had a better game than in recent weeks as he finished with 270 yards passing and a QBR of 73.5, but over the past two weeks, he has just 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions. He’s especially struggled when under pressure, which doesn’t bode well for him against the Saints, who racked up a whopping 8 sacks last week. New Orleans now has 32 sacks on the year, tied for the 3rd-most in football. Cameron Jordan led the way with 3 sacks to give him 5.5 on the season, while Trey Hendrickson added two to bring him to 9.5 sacks on the year, tied for the most in the NFL. The Broncos’ rushing offense was solid last week as Melvin Gordon rushed for two touchdowns while he and Phillip Lindsay combined for 31 carries for 166 yards. The Saints have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game and have allowed just 5 rushing touchdowns all year, tied for the fewest in the NFL. The offensive formula that led Denver to success against Miami isn’t going to work against a dominant front seven in New Orleans. The Saints’ offense was also surprisingly efficient, with Taysom Hill under center as they racked up 24 points and 378 yards, 168 of which came on the ground. This is shaping up to be a defensive slugfest with one of the lower over-under of the week. The Broncos have a -13 turnover differential, the worst in the NFL, while the Saints sit at +5 in turnovers. That’s going to end up being the difference-maker in what should be a very low-scoring game. The Saints’ defense is going to shut down the Broncos’ offense, and Sean Payton can engineer enough with Taysom Hill to cover this spread.

Matchup to watch: Saints’ front seven (3rd-most sacks) vs. Drew Lock (worst passer rating under pressure in NFL)

Injury Report:

New Orleans Saints: CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) Q, TE Josh Hill (concussion) Q, RB Dwayne Washington (back) Q, OG Andrus Peat (concussion) Q, WR Deonte Harris (neck) Q, DT Sheldon Rankins (MCL) IR eligible to return, QB Drew Brees (ribs) IR

Denver Broncos: OG Graham Glasgow (lower leg) Q, LB Mark Barron (hamstring) IR eligible to return, TE Jake Butt (hamstring) IR eligible to return, DE Shelby Harris (COVID-19) IR

Betting Trends to Know:

New Orleans Saints: 8-2 SU this season, 5-5 ATS this season, 7-0 SU in last 7 games, 10-1 SU in last 11 games on the road, the total has gone under in 4 of New Orleans’ last 5 games in November

Denver Broncos: 4-6 SU this season, 6-4 ATS this season, 6-3 ATS in last 9 games played in November, the total has gone under in 14 of Denver’s last 20 games at home

Odds: Saints -5.5, O/U 44.5

My predictions: Saints win 24-17, Saints cover, under 44.5 points

(4-6) San Francisco 49ers @ (7-3) Los Angeles Rams

TV Info: 11/29/20, 4:05 PM EST, FOXlos angeles rams new 100x100san francisco 49ers

Week 11 provided the Rams with their statement win of the season so far as they took down the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay in a performance that highlighted this team’s overall talent. Cooper Kupp (11-145) and Robert Woods (12-130-1) both played perhaps their best game of the season as Jared Goff completed 39 of 51 passes for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns. Goff did throw two interceptions, but his offensive line held him without a sack and did much better than I expected against what had been a dominant Tampa pass rush. The Rams’ defense was also phenomenal, pressuring Tom Brady all night and forcing him into two uncharacteristic interceptions as well as another pass that should have been picked off. Los Angeles continues to outperform everyone’s expectations, and at 7-3, we have to start taking them seriously as real contenders to get back to the Super Bowl this season. Meanwhile, the defending NFC Champion 49ers have been the Murphy’s Law team in the NFL season, as their injury report below suggests. The last time we saw them play, a massively undermanned San Francisco team scored just 13 points on the road against the Saints. The bye week should have provided them with the opportunity to get healthy, but with several players still dealing with COVID-19 as well as miscellaneous injuries, it’s very unclear who will even suit up for this team this week. The Rams’ defense is not the one they’d want to face with so many key players missing as LA is allowing the fewest yards and the second-fewest points per game. Aaron Donald and this team’s elite pass rush should feast on an offensive line missing several pieces while Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams will find their lives much easier than last week against Nick Mullens with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk all likely missing. There aren’t many positive takeaways for the Niners here, and I’ll take the Rams to cover a touchdown spread at home all day long.

Weather forecast: DOME, N/A

Matchup to watch: Aaron Donald and Rams’ pass rush (32 sacks, tied for 3rd-most) vs. 49ers’ offensive line (missing several key starters, allowing 13th-most sacks already)

Injury Report:

San Francisco 49ers: WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) Q, RB Tevin Coleman (knee) Q, RB Raheem Mostert (ankle) IR eligible to return, CB Richard Sherman (calf) IR eligible to return, C Ben Garland (calf) IR eligible to return, RB Jeff Wilson (ankle) IR eligible to return, DE Dee Ford (neck) IR eligible to return, OT Trent Williams (COVID-19) IR, WR Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19) IR, DT Javon Kinlaw (COVID-19) IR, DE Arik Armstead (COVID-19) IR, CB K’Waun Williams (ankle) O

Los Angeles Rams: C Brian Allen (knee) Q, S Taylor Rapp (knee) IR, K Kai Forbath (ankle) IR, OT Andrew Whitworth (MCL) IR

Betting Trends to Know:

San Francisco 49ers: 4-6 SU this season, 4-6 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS in last 7 games, 7-3 ATS in last 10 games vs. Rams, the total has gone over in 5 0f San Francisco’s last 7 games on the road against LA

Los Angeles Rams: 7-3 SU this season, 6-4 ATS this season, 4-2 ATS in last 6 games, 7-2-1 in last 10 games vs. NFC West teams, the total has gone under in 6 of the Rams’ last 7 games

Odds: Rams -7, O/U 46.5

My predictions: Rams win 31-17, Rams cover, over 46.5 points

(9-1) Kansas City Chiefs @ (7-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TV Info: 11/29/20, 4:25 PM EST, CBStampa bay buccaneerskansas city chiefs

Weather forecast: overcast, 75° F, 11 mph wind

Welcome to the game of the week. Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady. Andy Reid vs. Bruce Arians. Two Super Bowl contenders on the center stage. I only wish this game was in primetime. The Chiefs are coming off a Sunday Night Football game in which the Raiders gave them everything they had, but Patrick Mahomes had the last laugh on a late 22-yard game-winning touchdown toss to tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce finished with a monstrous 8-127-1 line while Tyreek Hill went 11-102-1. Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire also got in on the fun as he rushed for two touchdowns, his first multi-touchdown game of the season. As the Chiefs racked up 460 yards of offense, they once again proved to be the best offensive team in the NFL, and not even a near-perfect game from Derek Carr could help the Raiders earn a win at home. Tom Brady is coming off a far-from-perfect game against the Rams in which he completed just 26 of 48 passes for 216 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, finishing with an underwhelming QBR of 55.2. The Rams’ pass rush was incredibly disruptive for Tampa, but they’ll hope to have stalwart offensive guard Ali Marpet back for this game, and the Chiefs don’t have nearly the pass-rushing bodies that the Rams do. The Rams are tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks while the Chiefs are in the bottom half with just 19 sacks in 10 games. Brady will have much more time to sit back and pick apart Kansas City’s cornerbacks with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown comfortably forming the best wide receiver trio in football. The continued absence of right tackle Mitchell Schwartz could prove problematic for Mahomes against a stacked front seven in Tampa Bay, but there aren’t many better in the NFL at moving around the pocket and making throws on the run. The Buccaneers pretty clearly have the better defense in this matchup, but it’s very difficult to bet against Patrick Mahomes right now with the tear he’s on, and I’ll pick the Chiefs to cover as short road favorites in what I’m expecting to be a dazzling shootout.

Matchup to watch: Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady

Injury Report:

Kansas City Chiefs: WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring) Q, WR Byron Pringle (ankle) Q, OT Mitchell Schwartz (back) IR, DE Taco Charlton (leg) IR

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OG Ali Marpet (concussion) Q, S Justin Evans (foot) Q

Betting Trends to Know:

Kansas City Chiefs: 15-4 ATS in last 19 games, 5-0 SU in last 5 games, 6-2 ATS in last 8 games on the road, the total has gone over in 4 of Kanas City’s last 6 games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-13-2 ATS in last 23 games, 7-3 SU in last 10 games, 2-9-2 ATS in last 13 games at home, 5-10 SU in last 15 games at home, the total has gone over in 9 of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games at home

Odds: Chiefs -3.5, O/U 56

My prediction: Chiefs win 28-24, Chiefs cover, under 56 points

(5-5) Chicago Bears @ (7-3) Green Bay Packers

TV Info: 11/29/20, 8:20 PM EST, NBCgreen bay packersChicago Bears

Weather forecast: cloudy, 31° F, 18 mph wind

In a rare turn of events for the Packers, they were outscored by 20-3 points through the second half, and overtime of their game against the Colts as four turnovers and a defense that allowed Indianapolis to convert 50% of 3rd and 4th-down opportunities allowed the shocking comeback defeat. Green Bay’s offense did fine as Aaron Rodgers threw for another 311 yards and 3 touchdowns while Davante Adams caught 7 balls for 106 yards and a touchdown. However, Matt LeFleur coached an overly conservative game plan in the second half and ultimately allowed the Colts to get back into the game. Luckily, the Packers’ defense shouldn’t be nearly as stressed this week against the Bears. Chicago comes into this game scoring just 19.1 points per game, more than only the Jets. To make matters worse, their top two quarterbacks in Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky are both dealing with injuries and may not play. The same is true for running back David Montgomery. It remains to be seen if any of them will be able to play on Sunday, and it may end up being the Tyler Bray and Ryan Nall show against a solid Packers defense. To make matters worse for the Bears, this game is projected to have heavy, 18 mile-per-hour winds. I have no idea how they surpass 20 points on the road, regardless of who lines up in the backfield. Meanwhile, Green Bay boasts an elite offensive trio in Rodgers, Adams, and Aaron Jones that have combined to help the team score 30.8 points per game, the third-most in the NFL. While the Bears’ defense has been elite this season, it won’t matter much if their offense can help put them in situations to succeed. The Packers beat the Bears twice last season by an average of 7.5 points, so this line is probably spot on, but I can’t reasonably bet on the Bears on the road this week with their offense in shambles.

Matchup to watch: Davante Adams vs. Kyle Fuller and Bears’ pass defense (allowing 2nd-fewest passing touchdowns this season)

Injury Report:

Chicago Bears: RB David Montgomery (concussion) Q, DE Akiem Hicks (hamstring) Q, QB Nick Foles (hip) Q, QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) Q, WR Dwayne Harris (triceps) IR eligible to return, K Eddie Pineiro (groin) IR eligible to return

Green Bay Packers: RB Tyler Ervin (ribs) Q, C Corey Linsley (back) Q, RB A.J. Dillon (COVID-19) IR

Betting Trends to Know: 

Chicago Bears: 5-5 SU this season, 5-5 ATS this season, 2-8 SU in last 10 games vs. the Packers, 7-13 ATS in last 20 games, the total has gone under in 7 0f Chicago’s 10 games this season, the total has gone under in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games

Green Bay Packers: 7-3 SU this season, 6-4 ATS this season, 2-4 ATS in last 6 games, 13-4 SU in last 17 games, 9-1 SU in last 10 home games, the total has gone under in 9 of Green Bay’s last 12 games vs. NFC North teams

Odds: Packers -8.5, O/U 45

My predictions: Packers win 26-16, Packers cover, under 45 points

Monday Night Football

(7-3) Seattle Seahawks @ (3-6-1) Philadelphia Eagles

TV Info: 11/30/20, 8:15 PM EST, ESPNphiladelphia eaglesseattle seahawks

Weather forecast: rainy, 52° F, 13 mph wind

This is a tale of one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against one of the worst. Still one of the frontrunners for MVP, Russell Wilson is on pace for 48 passing touchdowns to 16 interceptions along with 4,778 passing yards. He’s put up the 3rd-best passer rating in football this year. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz continues to provide head-scratching play for the Eagles after another two interceptions against the Browns on Sunday, including a pick-six that ultimately did Philly in. Wentz is on pace for 23 touchdowns and 23 interceptions while he’s put up the third-worst passer rating in the NFL, better than only Drew Lock and Sam Darnold. The Eagles’ offensive weapons have gotten healthier as of late, but that didn’t matter on Sunday as Wentz once again was maddeningly inconsistent. You can chalk some of that up to the wind and rain in Cleveland, but he’ll have to contend with similar weather conditions at home this week. Meanwhile, Wilson and the Seahawks are coming off a long week after the last playing on Thursday Night Football and should be more than prepared for this Monday night game. The Eagles have allowed the 6th-fewest passing yards per game as well as the 4th-fewest passing touchdowns, but a slate of games against the NFC East doesn’t exactly chalk up to what they’ll be up against in Seattle’s passing attack. Seattle has scored 31.8 points per game, the second-most in the NFL. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been one of the best receiver duos in the NFL, and the Seahawks are expected to have their top running back, Chris Carson, back for this game. The Seahawks’ defense has generated 4.3 sacks per game since adding Carlos Dunlap to the defensive line, much improved from their pre-Dunlap 1.7 sacks per game. Shaquill Griffin is also reportedly practicing, and his return would be a boon for this defense. The Eagles are one of just three teams with 20+ turnovers this season, and even though Seattle’s defense hasn’t been great, it won’t matter as Wentz, and the Eagles can’t seem to get out of their own way. I’m betting big on Seattle to win and comfortably cover here as they embark on a beautifully easy slate of games against teams from the NFC East.

Matchup to watch: Seahawks’ pass rush (4.3 sacks per game since adding Dunlap) vs. Eagles’ offensive line (allowing the most sacks per game)

Injury Report:

Seattle Seahawks: RB Chris Carson (foot) Q, CB Shaquill Griffin (hamstring) Q, C Ethan Pocic (concussion) Q, OG Jordan Simmons (calf) Q, RB Travis Homer (knee) Q, RB Bo Scarbrough (hamstring) Q, TE Greg Olsen (foot) O, CB Quinton Dunbar (knee) IR

Philadelphia Eagles: OT Jason Peters (undisclosed) Q, OT Lane Johnson (shoulder) Q, TE Zach Ertz (ankle) IR eligible to return, RB Corey Clement (COVID-19) IR, DE Vinny Curry (COVID-19) IR, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (COVID-19) IR, CB Cre’von LeBlanc (ankle) O

Betting Trends to Know:

Seattle Seahawks: 7-3 SU this season, 6-4 ATS this season, 2-4 ATS in last 6 games, 6-0 ATS in last 6 games vs. Philadelphia, 7-0 ATS in last 7 games against NFC East teams, the total has gone under in 5 of Seattle’s last 5 games against Philadelphia

Philadelphia Eagles: 3-6-1 SU this season, 3-7 ATS this season, 3-8 ATS in last 11 games, the total has gone under in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games this season, the Eagles are 7-13 SU in their last 20 games against NFC West teams, and the total has gone under in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games.

Odds: Seahawks -5.5, O/U 50.5

My predictions: Seahawks win 30-20, Seahawks cover, under 50.5 points

  
For as long as I've been watching sports, I've been gambling on them too. I used to place $1 bets on several NBA games throughout the week with a buddy in high school with the winner rarely getting more than a few dollars for their trouble. It didn't matter - the rush of landing a winning bet and the ensuing bragging rights were enough. Now I've graduated to full-blown degenerate status, placing copious futures bets for every sport and designing elaborate parlays for maximum payoff. I've experienced my fair share of blown chances but there's no better feeling than using my sports research and knowledge to pull off a win.

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