It’s hard to believe that we’re already onto Week 14 of the NFL season, but there are only a few weeks left before the playoffs. On Thursday Night Football this week, we’re looking at a game between the Raiders and Rams that carried much more intrigue prior to the season. With both teams on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, is there value to be found?
I believe so, and in this article, I’ll be looking to get that value in a Same Game Parlay. With SGPs, you can combine multiple wagers across the spread, total, and player prop markets and get an even better payout. There are some great options on the board for this week, so let’s get to work.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Week 14 Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay
My favorite player prop in this game, and the only one I’ve made an official play so far, is the under on rushing yards for Josh Jacobs. FanDuel has it listed at 89.5 yards, which is a touch lower than it’s available at some other books. However, I like the under on Jacobs’ rushing yardage for several reasons.
Jacobs has hit the over in three straight weeks and is averaging 160 rushing yards per game over that span, but there’s a reason his line is set this low. First, the Rams have an elite run defense. They rank top five in DVOA, success rate, EPA, and yards per carry allowed. The addition of linebacker Bobby Wagner, graded as the best player at his position per PFF, has done wonders for the run defense.
In addition, Jacobs is dealing with calf and quadricep injuries. Those issues didn’t hamper him against the Chargers last week, but the quadriceps injury is new, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the injuries limit his efficiency, especially on a short week. The Raiders already have the eighth-highest passing rate in neutral game scripts, but they could also opt for even more of a pass-first offense.
As such, I’m taking the over on 249.5 passing yards for Derek Carr. Carr has been over that number in four of his last five games, and he’s averaging 272 passing yards per game over that span. The Rams have allowed four straight opposing quarterbacks to hit the over on their passing yardage prop, and they rank 27th in pass defense DVOA.
I’m also adding the Rams +6.5 to this SGP. I’d play it at +6, but a juiced +6.5 is fine. The Rams showed a lot of fight on Sunday as they covered for the second straight game against a superior opponent, and Sean McVay seems to be relishing the opportunity to coach young players excited for the opportunity to take on big roles they weren’t expecting at the start of the season.
Finally, let’s add the under on 51.5 points at -310 odds. I would never play that on its own, but it takes our SGP from +350 to +522, and it’s a relatively safe leg. I already lean towards the under 44.5 points, but adding an extra touchdown of cushion helps a ton. The Rams haven’t played in a game that finished with more than 51 points since September.
Put it all together, and we have a simple four-leg SGP that looks very enticing:
- Los Angeles Rams +6.5 (-122)
- Under 51.5 Total Points (-310)
- Derek Carr Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Josh Jacobs Under 89.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Full SGP Odds: +522 ($10 wins $52.28)