NFL Week 16 Jaguars vs. Jets Same Game Parlay Picks + SGP Strategy
We’re onto Week 16 of the NFL season, and the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jaguars and Jets provides much higher stakes than many expected before the season began. In what is almost a playoff game for these teams, watching the #1 pick vs the #2 pick from 2021 in Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson will be fascinating.
In this article, I’ll put together a Same Game Parlay with player props and sides from this game. With SGPs, we’re looking to combine multiple wagers to boost our overall payout. Remember that correlation is king with SGPs. Let’s get to work.
*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay
A big storyline in this game will be the weather conditions, and for good reason. As I’m writing this article, the current forecast calls for a 100% chance of rain and winds of up to 20-30 mph. Yikes. Throwing the football in those conditions won’t be easy for either quarterback.
However, I still love Christian Kirk in this game. Kirk is in the midst of an excellent season with 73 catches for 966 yards, and he’s five catches and 17 yards away from setting new career highs in his first season in Jacksonville. While the Jets have an elite defense, this matchup actually sets up rather well for Kirk.
New York’s slot coverage hasn’t been nearly as good as their perimeter coverage, and that plays right into the hands, literally, of Kirk. Michael Carter II, the Jets’ primary slot corner, has a PFF coverage grade of just 56.4 over the past month. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed Jr. have been excellent on the perimeter, but they have played just a combined 14 snaps in the slot all season while Kirk plays 77% of his snaps there.
The Jaguars have a banged up offensive line that already ranks 31st in pass-block win rate, and against a Jets defensive line that ranks 10th in pass rush win rate, Lawrence will be under fire. However, that’s nothing new for him as he’s gotten rid of the ball at the second-fastest rate among qualified quarterbacks this season.
I’d rather roll with Kirk’s receptions prop as I anticipate several short-area, quick-strike catches that won’t necessarily break for long yardage, but the rain can also make it difficult for defenders to make tackles, so Kirk could break off some YAC throughout the game. Let’s take his receiving yardage prop at 48.5 yards.
Next, I’m taking Trevor Lawrence over 12.5 rushing yards. He’s gone over that number in five of his last seven games, and he’s averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game across his career. He’s also gone over this number in four of the six games that he’s played against defenses that rank inside the top ten in sack percentage this season.
In addition, I’ll take Garrett Wilson over 52.5 receiving yards. We’re getting a pretty great value for the standout rookie wide receiver here primarily due to the weather and Zach Wilson’s erratic quarterback play, but he can still go over this number fairly easily in what is a beautiful matchup. Over the last month, the Jaguars rank 31st in dropback success rate allowed, and Wilson can take advantage.
Garrett Wilson has gone over this number in four straight games and six of his last seven, and over the last month, he’s averaging 18.8 yards per reception. While he has had more of a downfield role with Zach Wilson, the rookie wideout has awesome YAC ability. I’ll bank on him breaking a couple of tackles in this game to get to the over.
With all of these player props leaning to the over here, let’s take an alternate line on the total over to round out our SGP. You can play over 33.5 points on FanDuel at -184 odds, and 34 is a relatively key number, so that’s a nice value. I’d never play that line on its own, but it’s a great piece to add to our SGP given the correlation.
With all of that put together, here’s our SGP:
- Christian Kirk Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Trevor Lawrence Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Garrett Wilson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Over 33.5 Alternate Total Points (-184)
Full SGP Odds: +770 ($10 wins $77.06)
