NFL Week 2 Player Prop Bets: Damien Harris to Dominate the Jets

Week 1 of the NFL season brought a ton of excitement including some huge upsets and massive performances by individual players. As always, there are a ton of intriguing prop bets on the table for Week 2 with some high-scoring games expected to be on the slate. With so many bets available, I take a look at where to look for the highest-value prop bets in this weekly column. Let’s dive into some Week 2 props.

Week 2 NFL Searchable Player Props

DeVonta Smith

Over 3.5 receptions, over 47.5 receiving yards

Here at Lineups, we had a lot of discussions last week about how sportsbooks had mispriced DeVonta Smith’s stat line at 3.5 receptions and he ended with 6 catches against the Falcons. Now, the sportsbooks are right back at the same number. Smith led the Eagles with 8 targets and Jalen Hurts only had to throw the ball 35 times as Philly ran away with the game. This week, things should be much closer against the Niners which means more passing attempts. San Francisco just lost Jason Verrett for the season so their secondary is in flux, and while Smith is a rookie, he’s clearly talented enough and has enough chemistry with Hurts to take advantage in a good spot.

Damien Harris

Over 74.5 rushing yards, anytime TD scorer

The first game of the season went quite well for Damien Harris right up until a late fumble sealed the win for the Dolphins. You might be concerned about Bill Belichick reducing his workload after that fumble, but I’m not as Rhamondre Stevenson also fumbled and I can’t foresee J.J. Taylor going from no carries to a huge workload. Harris got 23 carries against the Dolphins and now faces a Jets defense that ranked middle-of-the-pack in run defense last season. In what should be a positive game script for the Patriots, 20 carries is well within reach so 75 rushing yards should be very doable for Harris. In addition, he will resume his role as the goalline back and I’m betting on him reaching the end zone in this game.

Sam Darnold

Under 246.5 passing yards, over 0.5 interceptions

This one makes minimal sense to me. Darnold did finish with 279 passing yards last week against the Jets, but the Saints have a far better defense he has to face this week. Darnold has only thrown for over 247 yards ten times in his 39 professional games and did so just once last year. Now, he faces a defense that held Aaron Rodgers to just 133 passing yards last week. The Panthers’ offensive line is going to struggle to keep the pocket clean against Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport while the New Orleans secondary is full of talented playmakers.

Dalton Schultz

Under 32.5 receiving yards, under 3.5 receptions

While Dalton Schultz is coming off an impressive Week 1 performance with 6 catches for 45 yards, we need to contextualize those numbers a bit. He had the tight end spot to himself last year and surpassed 33 receiving yards in just nine of sixteen games. Now, Blake Jarwin is back to compete for targets at tight end. Schultz did out snap Jarwin 57 to 48 last week, but that could change as that was just Jarwin’s first game back from his torn ACL and he’s the more explosive receiving target of the two.

Baker Mayfield

Under 1.5 passing touchdowns

This one could look silly by the end of the week as Mayfield absolutely has the ability to throw for multiple touchdowns against the weak Texans defense. However, I don’t think he will need to. The Texans allowed the most rushing yards and the second-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last season and the Browns could do all of their scoring on the ground with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Mayfield threw for no touchdowns against the Texans last time these teams played, and while that was mostly due to poor weather conditions and a positive game script, the running game carried the offensive burden like I expect it to again this week.

Kareem Hunt

Over 40.5 rushing yards, anytime TD scorer

Speaking of the ground, game, I expect both Cleveland running backs to have big games this week. The last time the Browns faced the Texans, Kareem Hunt had 19 carries for 104 yards despite a healthy Nick Chubb in the lineup. Even with Chubb starting, 41 rushing yards should be very doable for Hunt in a game where the Browns should have a disproportionate amount of runs to passes. The Browns are 12.5-point home favorites over a hapless Texans team and this is the perfect game script to feature both running backs.

Melvin Gordon

Over 49.5 rushing yards

While the Texans do have a poor run defense, the Jaguars’ run defense might be even worse. Jacksonville allowed Mark Ingram to run for 85 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries last week in a turn-back-the-clock performance as Houston had a surprisingly positive game script. That game script should be there for the Broncos, as well, and I’m expecting Denver to move the ball on the ground early and often with Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams. I would bet on either player’s prop bets this week, but I expect the veteran to get the first crack at things and he could get to 50 rushing yards by the end of the first quarter against this defense.

Michael Pittman Jr.

Under 46.5 receiving yards, under 4.5 receptions

I’m still excited about a potential breakout season for Michael Pittman Jr. in his second year in the NFL, but that’s not going to happen this week as he faces an elite Rams defense that allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL last year. Carson Wentz was content to prioritize the running backs in the passing game last week as Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines combined for 43% of the team’s total targets, and that could continue this week in order to attempt to nullify the ferocious LA pass rush. Pittman will see a lot of Jalen Ramsey in this game, and that’s not going to help his production one bit.

Zach Wilson

Over 0.5 interceptions, under 235.5 passing yards

Bill Belichick is known for many things, but one of them is making the lives of opposing rookie quarterbacks absolutely miserable. The patriots under Belichick are 21-6 against rookie quarterbacks with many of those games being thrashings over the years. Zach Wilson had some good moments in his NFL debut, but he struggled overall against the Panthers’ defense and the Patriots’ defense is much better, even without Stephon Gilmore. I have high hopes for Zach Wilson’s career long-term, but this is going to be a difficult game for him.

Chase Claypool

Over 45.5 receiving yards

There wasn’t a lot going in Chase Claypool’s favor in Week 1 as Ben Roethlisberger only threw for 188 yards and Claypool faced the unfortunate reality of a matchup with Tre’Davious White, one of the best cornerbacks in football (who he absolutely MOSSED on one play, by the way). With all of that working against him, Claypool still finished with 45 receiving yards. Now, he gets a much easier matchup against the Raiders who allowed both Marqise Brown and Sammy Watkins great games in Week 1. I’m banking on a big bounce-back for the second-year wide receiver.

Kirk Cousins

Under 269.5 passing yards, over 0.5 interceptions

This may not seem like a high number after Kirk Cousins threw for 351 yards in Week 1, but this is going to be a much tougher matchup for him against the Cardinals. Arizona dominated what looked to be a decent offensive line in Week 1 as Chandler Jones racked up five sacks. Ryan Tannehill struggled in the matchup as he only threw for 212 yards. Kirk Cousins is not nearly as mobile a quarterback as Tannehill is and the Vikings’ offensive line looks much worse than the Titans’ on paper, particularly with rookie offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw out for another week. Cousins is going to struggle in this matchup.

Leonard Fournette

Over 34.5 rushing yards

I bet on Ronald Jones’s rushing total in the first game of the season and immediately regretted it when he fumbled early in the game. Jones only saw six total snaps in the game as Fournette led the way with 42 snaps, 65% of the team’s total. Fournette only had 32 rushing yards despite being on the field that much, but that also came in a game where Tampa was throwing as much as possible against a bad Cowboys’ secondary. This week, I’m expecting a heavily positive game script for Tampa, which will allow Fournette to be more involved on the ground. I don’t trust Bruce Arians when he says all is forgiven with Jones and Fournette is the better play this week.

Calvin Ridley

Over 5.5 receptions, over 84.5 receiving yards

The Atlanta offense as a whole struggled in Week 1 and Calvin Ridley finished with five receptions for 51 yards. The offensive line did not hold up at all and it hampered Matt Ryan’s ability to move the ball downfield effectively. This week, Atlanta faces a dominant Tampa front seven which does not bode well. However, the Buccaneers allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in Week 1 as both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb had excellent weeks. Ridley had 8+ receptions in each of his two games against the Buccaneers last season and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is not expected to play this week, so this game provides a nice spot for Ridley to bounce back.

Aaron Jones

Over 68.5 rushing yards, anytime TD scorer

The entire Packers’ offense struggled mightily against the Saints in Week 1, and Jones was no exception as he had just nine rushing yards on five carries. It’s best to have a short memory with Jones, though, as he gets a tasty matchup against a Lions’ defense he averaged 118.5 rushing yards per game in two matchups against last year. While Detroit’s defense should be somewhat improved from what was the worst fantasy defense against running backs last year, the Lions still allowed 131 rushing yards to the 49ers in Week 1. Green Bay will be looking for a nice recovery game and Jones should be heavily involved on the ground.

Honorable Mentions

Alvin Kamara over 108.5 rushing + receiving yards

Carson Wentz over 0.5 interceptions

Tua Tagovailoa under 242.5 passing yards

Jalen Hurts under 50.5 rushing yards

Antonio Brown under 70.5 receiving yards

Austin Ekeler over 88.5 rushing + receiving yards

Ryan Tannehill over 256.5 passing yards

A.J. Brown over 71.5 receiving yards

Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 passing touchdowns