NFL Week 2 Survivor Picks + Strategy
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Well, that went… poorly. Five of the six most popular survivor pool picks – the Colts, Titans, 49ers, Broncos, and Bengals – all lost in Week 1. 56% of the Circa Sports Survivor Contest was eliminated in Week 1. I wasn’t alone in the carnage, but I was disappointed to have delivered a losing pick in the first week of this column nonetheless.
Plenty of survivor pools offer multiple lives while others will buy back in to keep the action going. Whether you’re coming back for more after backing the Ravens, buying back into your pool, or simply looking for a high-odds Moneyline to include in a parlay, let’s see if we can’t pick a winner this time around.
Week 2 Survivor Pool Most Used Teams
Using Survivor Grid’s data, the following are the most-used teams in Week 2:
Los Angeles Rams (-10): At a 29.1% selection rate, the Rams are the most popular team in Week 2. It makes sense as they are coming off a disappointing loss to the Bills in their opener and have ten days to prepare for this game. Marcus Mariota and Cordarelle Patterson showed signs of life for Atlanta’s offense last week, but their offensive and defensive lines are ill-equipped to challenge Los Angeles.
Denver Broncos (-10): One of the most popular teams in Week 1 was a loser as the Broncos suffered an infuriating defeat to the Seahawks. Nathaniel Hackett will take his lumps for questionable coaching decisions, but a home game against the Texans will be just what the doctor ordered. Davis Mills had a strong outing in Week 1, but Russell Wilson should be able to pick apart the Houston defense with ease.
Cleveland Browns (-6): The Browns are projected to be the third-most popular team at an 11.7% usage rate, but I simply refuse to back Jacoby Brissett in this type of format. The Jets upset the Bengals and Titans last year to the frustration of survivor pool pickers, and while they won in Week 1, I can’t get behind the Browns, particularly at a high pick rate.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5): The Bengals were a massive letdown in Week 1, but they should be able to bounce back against a collapsing Dallas team. Even if Tee Higgins is unable to play this week, the Cowboys’ secondary will be ill-equipped to defend against Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. With no Dak Prescott to help keep pace, the Cowboys are likely in trouble here.
YOU CAN’T BEAT THE JOE BURROW AND JA’MARR CHASE DUO! 🗣 pic.twitter.com/zZTXRqwrzN
— PFF CIN Bengals (@PFF_Bengals) September 11, 2022
Buffalo Bills (-10): If you advanced on the back of the Bills in Week 1, kudos are in order as I expected the Rams to make that game much more competitive. Nonetheless, Buffalo is off to a roaring start and now has a ton of time to rest and prepare for their Monday Night Football game against the Titans. The Bills lost to the Titans last year, and they will be eager to avenge that result.
Green Bay Packers (-10): I had the Packers as one of my best bets last week as I expected the Vikings to take longer to gel under Kevin O’Connell and Aaron Rodgers to figure it out despite being without proven receiving talent. Neither thing happened, but the Packers have won six straight and eleven of their last twelve against the Bears. This profiles as an excellent get-right spot for this team.
#CircaSurvivor 2022 started with 6,133 entries. Five days ago.
2,685 entries remain. Unreal. $6.1 million. pic.twitter.com/Ohe4fSyi2v
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 13, 2022
Last week, I tweeted a reminder to be wary of upsets. Last year, six teams that were priced at -160 or lower on the Moneyline lost in Week 1. This year, five teams that were priced at -250 or lower tied or lost (Colts counted as a loss for survivor pools).
As you're firing up your "can't miss ML parlays" for the NFL in Week 1, keep in mind that the following favorites lost last year in Week 1 alone:
Bills (-335)
Ravens (-250)
Falcons (-210)
Vikings (-195)
Packers (-165)
Patriots (-160)There will be AT LEAST one major upset
— Jacob Wayne (@wayne_sports_) September 6, 2022
Week 2 NFL Survivor Picks
This week, I’m rolling with the Broncos to get a key bounce-back win. Last week, they had over 400 yards of offense, more than five yards per rushing attempt, and over 7.5 yards per pass play while holding Seattle under 275 yards. That was the first loss in Denver franchise history with those numbers after previously going 20-0.
The pass-rush duo of Bradley Chubb and Randy Gregory combined for seven pressures and two sacks last week, and they will make Davis Mills’s life very difficult. In addition, the Houston secondary will likely struggle against Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler with Russell Wilson expected to have a much better game this week.
The Broncos are also rated with just two stars in Survivor Grid’s future value system, meaning they aren’t providing a ton of value to keep around as a future option. With a schedule that gets increasingly difficult as the year goes on, I don’t mind knocking Denver out now.
Last week was disappointing, but the Broncos won’t come away from three red-zone trips with three points again. This week, they will get their first win of the season in style. Broncos Country, Let’s Ride!
This was an alpha play by Jerry Jeudy!
The play is made because of his stem work. He attacks and stems the route vertically inside before crossing the DBs face!
Outmuscle him for the pass then burners for the score! 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/1kEesxqxUp
— Full-Time Dame 💰 (@DP_NFL) September 13, 2022
NFL Week 2 Odds
Find the best NFL Week 2 odds and lines across the major sportsbooks.
