NFL Week 3 Betting Trends: Underdogs off to a 21-11 ATS Start

As we head into Week 3 of the NFL season, we’re starting to learn more about every team’s strengths and weaknesses which helps us be more informed bettors. Let’s take a look at some of the most noteworthy trends from the young season.

Notable Betting Trends So Far

So far, an overcorrection from last year has led to many bettors favoring home teams. Home teams went just 127-128-1 during the 2020 regular season, and many bettors assumed that was due to the lack of fans in stadiums. However, entering Week 3, home teams are 16-16 straight up, and 13-9 against the spread (ATS), and home favorites are just 5-13 ATS.

Somewhat related to that trend of home teams underperforming, we have seen underdogs exceed expectations. Underdogs went 12-4 ATS in Week 1 and 9-7 ATS in Week 2 – that’s a 66% start which would have you very profitable if you bet on the underdog ATS in every game so far. There have been tons of close games – 10 games have been decided by a field goal or less. That’s tied for the fourth-most in NFL history through two weeks.

Five teams enter Week 2 with an 0-2 ATS record – the Jets, Chiefs, Jaguars, Washington Football Team, and Falcons. In the past five seasons, teams that start the year 0-2 ATS are 26-12 ATS in Week 3. Can these teams bounce back after a poor start to the year? There are four undefeated teams ATS following Thursday Night Football – the Broncos, Cowboys, Raiders, and Panthers (3-0). Will those teams continue outproducing expectations this season?

Ahead of Week 3, I identified two betting trends to know for each game, one for each team. Hopefully, these trends will help you make more educated decisions in betting on the upcoming slate of games. For all of my Week 3 picks, check out my betting lines and predictions article.

Two Betting Trends to Know For Each Week 3 Game

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, O/U 52) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Cardinals are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games traveling 1,000 or more miles
  • The over is 15-3 in Jacksonville’s last 18 games vs. a team traveling at least 1,500 miles

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (-5.5, O/U 48)

  • Colts are 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a defense allowing more than 26.5 PPG
  • The over is 7-0-1 in Tennessee’s last 8 games following an ATS win

Baltimore Ravens (-8, O/U 50) vs. Detroit Lions

  • Ravens are 7-0 ATS in last seven road games following a win of three or fewer points
  • Lions are 14-21-1 ATS in their last 36 home games after a loss

Washington Football Team vs. Buffalo Bills (-7, O/U 45.5)

  • Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog
  • The over has hit in 8 of the Bills’ last 10 home games vs NFC opponents

New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots (-3, O/U 42.5)

  • The under has hit in the Saints’ last 5 games, 5 of last 7 road games
  • Patriots are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the home favorite

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7, O/U 54.5)

  • Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Chiefs
  • Chiefs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as the favorite

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants (-3, O/U 47.5)

  • Falcons are 1-4 ATS in last five games as a road underdog
  • Giants are 10-1-1 in last 12 games after playing on Thursday

Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns (-7.5, O/U 44.5)

  • The under is 24-16-1 in Bears’ last 41 road non-conference games
  • Browns are 2-13 ATS in last 15 games vs team allowing less than 3.75 yards per carry

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, O/U 43.5)

  • Bengals are 4-14 ATS in games in Pittsburgh with Mike Tomlin as Steelers’ head coach
  • Steelers are 0-5 ATS in last five as favorite and 0-4 ATS in last four as home favorite

Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-4, O/U 43.5)

  • Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in last 6 following a loss
  • The over is 5-0 in Raiders’ last 5 home games, 7 of last 8 games vs. AFC

New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos (-10.5, O/U 41.5)

  • Jets are 2-7 ATS in last 9 road games, 1-9 in last 9 road games vs AFC West
  • Broncos are 4-1 ATS in last five games as a favorite

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, O/U 55.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

  • Buccaneers are 8-2 in last 10 road games against a team with an 80% win rate
  • Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games immediately after an ATS loss

Seattle Seahawks (-2, O/U 55) vs. Minnesota Vikings

  • Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite
  • The over is 8-1 in Minnesota’s last 9 home games

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3, O/U 50)

  • Packers are 18-7-1 on less than six days rest in last 26 games
  • 49ers are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games vs team coming off Monday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, O/U 51.5)

  • Eagles are 1-6 ATS in last 7 road games
  • Cowboys are 1-9 ATS in last 10 games as a favorite of seven or fewer points
I've been writing about sports for Lineups since the beginning of 2020 and on my own website since 2018. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. As the United States embarks on an exciting journey towards the legalization of sports betting, I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to cover industry news, NFL and NBA odds, and more.

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