NFL Week 3 Packers vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Strategy (9/25/22)

As we enter Week 3 of the NFL season, all eyes will be on Tampa Bay as we’ll see Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady face off in a battle between two of the best passers in league history. Unlike some of the previous games between these quarterbacks, this matchup looks like a low-scoring, defensive affair due to the missing offensive personnel on both sides.

Nevertheless, there should be an opportunity for a Same Game Parlay (SGP) in this game. SGPs allow you to combine multiple wagers from the same game to boost your overall profit. As always, correlation is king with SGPs, and we’re looking for props that make sense in conjunction with one another. Let’s dive in.

NFL Week 3 Packers vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay

I wrote about why I love this matchup for Leonard Fournette in my player props article for this game, and I expect him to be highly productive. Green Bay has struggled against the run this year – their run defense ranks as the second-worst in the league per PFF. Tampa Bay has run the ball at a very high rate on early downs this season, and without Mike Evans and a banged up receiving corps, they will likely do so again this week.

For this SGP, I’m looking to get the best value we can on Fournette. FanDuel is offering +310 odds on him to run for 100+ yards this week, and that’s excellent value given the matchup and his high usage. In addition, I’ll take him to score a touchdown at -105 odds. While this is likely to be a low-scoring game, Fournette has the highest chance of scoring of anyone in the game.

On the Green Bay side, I’m going with their running back as well. It will always be difficult to know whether it will be Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillon to come through with the big game, but they will both be heavily involved as Aaron Rodgers will be under pressure and have a difficult time beating this secondary with his limited receiving corps. I’m rolling with Aaron Jones this week on the back of his strong Week 2 performance.

For this SGP, I’m taking his alternate line on rushing yards at 70+ for +225 odds. The matchup isn’t great, so I’m not going as high as I am with Fournette, but 70 yards isn’t a terribly high benchmark. In addition, I’m taking his anytime touchdown prop at -105 odds. I like banking on both running backs having a successful game in Week 3.

Put it all together, and we have an exciting four-leg SGP:

  • Leonard Fournette 100+ Rushing Yards (+310)
  • Leonard Fournette Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
  • Aaron Jones 70+ Rushing Yards (+225)
  • Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)

Full SGP Odds: +3611 ($10 wins $361.17)

NFL Week 3 Packers vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Bankroll Builder

This matchup provides an excellent opportunity for a bankroll builder, and I’m going back to the well with the running backs. I’m taking a deflated line for each player to start. Aaron Jones is at -1000 odds to run for 25 yards and Leonard Fournette is at -650 odds for 40+ rushing yards. Barring an injury, it’s difficult to imagine these players not hitting those numbers given the nature of this game.

In addition, I’m taking a deflated line on the over/under total. You can get under 50.5 points at -360 odds, and I have a hard time seeing how these teams combine for over 50 points given the limited offensive personnel on either side. Finally, I’m taking the Packers +10.5. I lean the Packers to win this game, and I have them as a top teaser piece this week, so I love the value there.

Full Bankroll Builder on FanDuel:

  • Aaron Jones 25+ Rushing Yards (-1000)
  • Leonard Fournette 40+ Rushing Yards (-650)
  • Green Bay Packers +10.5 (-460)
  • Under 50.5 Total Points (-360)
I've been writing about sports for Lineups since the beginning of 2020 and on my own website since 2018. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. As the United States embarks on an exciting journey towards the legalization of sports betting, I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to cover industry news, NFL and NBA odds, and more.

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