NFL Week 3 Preseason Recap: Favorites Dominate, Unders Trend Crashes Back Down to Earth
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Week 3 of the NFL preseason is now over, and we’re left with plenty to digest ahead of the kickoff of the NFL regular season. This year, the NFL is playing three weeks of preseason rather than the typical four in hopes of mitigating injuries. However, there have still been some very notable injuries with lasting implications (more on that in a minute). We now have a week off before the start of the regular season on September 9. What can we learn from the preseason in terms of betting?
Preseason Betting Statistics
The following are the betting results from the entirety of the preseason:
- Hall of Fame Game: Favorite 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, O/U 0-1
- Week 1: Favorites 9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, O/U 3-12-1
- Week 2: Favorites 10-4 SU, 5-9 ATS, O/U 5-10
- Week 3: Favorites 13-1-1 SU, 9-5-1 ATS, O/U 11-4
- Overall: Favorites 33-12-1 SU, 23-21-2 ATS, O/U 18-28-1
I Hope You Bet on Overs!
Last week, I wrote about how the biggest betting trend to emerge from the preseason was the shocking rate of games hitting the under on the points total – before Week 3 of the preseason, the total had gone under in 23 of 32 games (8-23-1). However, this trend aggressively swung back in the other direction in Week 3 as the total went over in 11 of 15 games. It wasn’t even close in those games either – in the games where the total went over, it did so by an average of 11.7 points (using ESPN‘s odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook).
I had previously contemplated changing my predictions for Week 1 to shift toward under on the points totals, but I decided to give it one more week. I’m glad I did because Week 3 showcased the unpredictable nature of the NFL. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in no fans in stadiums which resulted in higher-scoring games. There were 12,692 points scored in 2020, shattering the prior record of 11,985 points in 2013. NFL teams should score fewer points in 2021, but the oddsmakers will also be very in tune with this trend, and I wouldn’t recommend blindly betting on overs in Week 1.
Ravens Make Preseason History
If the Super Bowl were awarded based on preseason play, the Baltimore Ravens would be resounding champions. Unfortunately for John Harbaugh’s team, the preseason hardly matters to the regular season, let alone playoff football. Still, the Ravens’ consistency in the preseason is impressive. This year, Baltimore went 3-0 in the preseason to extend their record-breaking preseason run to 20 straight wins. Even more impressively, they’ve gone 18-1-1 ATS in those games.
However, this may not mean much for their Week 1 outlook. Over the past 20 years, teams that have recorded an unbeaten preseason have gone just 20-19 SU and 19-19-1 ATS in Week 1 of the regular season. To be fair to Baltimore, they have bucked this trend as they are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in Week 1 in each of the past four years following unbeaten preseasons. The Ravens are 4.5-point favorites against the Raiders in Week 1 on Monday Night Football, and I’ll be backing Baltimore in that game.
Winless Preseason a Death Sentence?
While it’s nothing new for some teams to completely forgo attempting to play their starters, it was jarring to see so many teams punt the preseason on their way to 0-3 records. The Giants, Vikings, Lions, Packers, Falcons, and Rams all went 0-3 in the preseason while the Cowboys went 0-4 – they also lost the Hall of Fame Game against the Steelers. Over the last 20 years, teams that have gone winless in the preseason have gone 12-27-1 SU and 11-27-2 ATS in Week 1. This doesn’t mean you should bet against all of these teams in Week 1, but it’s worth noting that they may have some rust to shake off relative to their opponents who have put in meaningful drives in the preseason.
Injury News
The sad part of the preseason is that it invariably brings season-ending injuries for players before they even get the chance to make an impact for their respective teams. This year has been no different. The Ravens’ unbeaten preseason didn’t come without cost as J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending ACL injury. This leaves Gus Edwards as the lead back for Baltimore while Justice Hill and Ty’Son Williams could see more opportunity. They will also likely look to add another player in the backfield – Todd Gurley has visited the team. Gus Edwards will now be the lead back, and his over/under on rushing yards has shifted to 1,000.5.
