NFL Week 4 Betting Trends: Saints Can’t Lose in October, Seahawks Control 49ers

Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and there are plenty of exciting matchups to dissect. For a complete analysis of every game on the slate and betting picks, check out my Week 4 Lines & Predictions article. This weekly article takes a look at the most intriguing betting trends so far this season and provides some betting nuggets for each game heading into Week 4 in hopes of helping you make more educated bets.

Interesting Trends So Far

Home favorites were just 5-13 ATS heading into Week 3. That trend continued somewhat in Week 3 as home favorites went 5-6 ATS on the week, bringing them to just a 34.5% success rate ATS so far. Meanwhile, underdogs went 9-7 ATS in Week 3, the same record as in Week 2, bringing dogs to 30-18 ATS on the year – that’s a 62.5% hit rate. Home teams went 8-8 straight up in Week 3, bringing them to 24-24 on the year. The success of road teams has left everyone wondering if we overestimated the impact the return of fans would have on home team success this season.

Betting Trends to Know For Each Week 4 Game

*Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, O/U 46.5)

• First time since 2017 Cincinnati is a home favorite of 7 or more points
• Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games
• Jaguars have lost 18 straight games
• The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games with Bengals as favorite

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-3, O/U 42)

• Lions are 1-12 SU in their last 13 divisional games
• Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 divisional games
• The over is 9-4 in the Lions’ last 13 games, 4 of their last 5 on the road
• The under is 15-5 in the Bears’ last 20 home games

Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-4, O/U 50.5)

• Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games
• Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
• The over is 9-2 in the Cowboys’ last 11 home games
• The under is 5-0 in the Panthers’ last 5 games

New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints (-8, O/U 43)

• Saints are 22-2 SU in their last 24 October games
• Giants are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games on the road
• The under is 9-1 in the Giants’ last 10 games
• The under is 5-0 in the Saints’ last 5 games

Cleveland Browns vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, O/U 52)

• Vikings are 12-3 SU in their last 15 October games
• Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
• Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games
• The over is 8-2 in the Vikings’ last 10 home games

Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills (-16, O/U 48)

• Bills are 8-1 SU in their last 9 home games
• Texans are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against the Bills
• The under is 5-1 in the last 6 matchups between these teams
• The over is 2-1 in Texans games this season

Tennessee Titans (-8, O/U 45.5) vs. New York Jets

• Titans are 5-1 SU in their last 6 road games
• Jets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Titans
• The over is 7-1 in the Titans’ last 8 road games
• The over is 13-6 in the Titans’ last 19 games

Kansas City Chiefs (-7, O/U 54.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• Chiefs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
• Eagles are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
• The under is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last 6 home games

Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins (-2, O/U 43)

• Colts are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against the Dolphins
• Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games
• The over is 6-2 in the Colts’ last 8 road games
• The under is 4-1 in the last 5 matchups between these teams

Washington Football Team (-1.5, O/U 47) vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Falcons are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against Washington
• Falcons are 2-7 SU in their last 9 home games
• Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 road games
• The over is 4-1 in the last 5 home games for the Falcons against Washington

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3, O/U 51.5)

• Seahawks are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games against the 49ers
• Seahawks are 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games against the 49ers
• The over is 5-1 in the last 6 games between these teams
• The over is 4-1 in the last 5 games in San Francisco between these teams

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, O/U 54.5)

• Rams are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against the Cardinals
• Rams are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
• The under is 4-2 in the Cardinals’ last 6 road games against the Rams
• The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games on the road

Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos (-1, O/U 44.5)

• Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
• Broncos are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games
• The under is 4-1 in the Ravens’ last 5 road games
• The under is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5, O/U 46)

• Steelers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
• Packers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games
• The over is 6-1 in the Packers’ last 7 games
• The over is 5-1 in the last 6 games between these teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, O/U 49) vs. New England Patriots

• Buccaneers are 8-1 SU in their last 9 road games
• Buccaneers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games
• Patriots are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog
• The under is 9-2 in the Patriots’ last 11 games

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, O/U 53)

• Raiders are 6-1 SU in their last 7 road games
• Chargers are 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
• The over is 7-1 in the Raiders’ last 8 games
• The under is 6-3 in the last 9 games between these teams