NFL Week 4 Broncos vs. Raiders Same Game Parlay Strategy (10/2/22)

The Broncos and Raiders both have first-year head coaches who have underwhelmed, and they both are fighting for positioning in an AFC West that hasn’t been nearly as overpowering as many expected. Still, there are plenty of players who provide intrigue in this matchup, and we’ll look to take advantage of player prop values in building our Same Game Parlay. You can build SGPs on any sportsbook, but we’ll use FanDuel for this article. Let’s take a look at our options.

*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

NFL Week 4 Broncos vs. Raiders Same Game Parlay

I believe this is going to be the Russell Wilson breakout game. Call me a homer as a Broncos fan if you want, but Wilson showed signs of life last week despite a brutal matchup against the 49ers, and this week will be much easier against the Raiders who rank bottom ten in pass defense by DVOA and PFF grades. Wilson can take advantage of their limited secondary with his growing chemistry with his receivers.

For this SGP, I’m taking the over on 242.5 passing yards for Wilson. He hasn’t hit that number in either of his last two games, but the Raiders have allowed Kyler Murray (277) and Ryan Tannehill (264) to well surpass this number over the last two weeks. With a limited pass rush outside of Maxx Crosby and a secondary that has suffered from poor cornerback play outside of Nate Hobbs, the Raiders’ defense is exploitable.

In addition to Wilson’s passing prop, I’m looking to play Courtland Sutton in this game. You can find my full analysis on his receiving yardage prop on our main player props page, so I’ll keep this relatively brief. Sutton has clearly become Wilson’s top receiver in the offense, and he has averaged 97 receiving yards per game this season. While Nate Hobbs, the Raiders’ best cornerback, has played more on the outside this season, Sutton has a significant advantage in size and physicality at the catch point.

That physical advantage over Hobbs, and all of the Raiders’ cornerbacks, leads me to also include Courtland Sutton’s touchdown prop, along with his receiving yards at 69.5. The Broncos have struggled in the red zone this year, but Sutton has four targets inside the 20-yard line this season and has yet to convert with a touchdown. There have been a couple of instances where he narrowly missed with a toe touching down out of bounds, and I believe he finds paydirt this week.

Finally, I’m using this game as a buy-low spot for Darren Waller. Hunter Renfrow remains out with a concussion he suffered in Week 2, and while Waller only finished with 22 receiving yards last week, he dropped two goal line touchdowns, was overthrown on what should have been a 30-plus yard gain, and had a 29-yard gain wiped away by penalty. Waller has averaged six catches for 78 yards over his last five games against Denver, so I’ll grab his yardage prop here.

With all of that put together, we’re looking at an exciting four-leg parlay that can provide plenty of intrigue to the afternoon slate of games on Sunday:

  • Russell Wilson Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-114)
  • Courtland Sutton Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
  • Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
  • Darren Waller Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-130)

Full SGP Odds: +765 ($10 wins $76.59)

DraftKings Banner Update $1,050

I've been writing about sports for Lineups since the beginning of 2020 and on my own website since 2018. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. As the United States embarks on an exciting journey towards the legalization of sports betting, I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to cover industry news, NFL and NBA odds, and more.

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