We’re onto Week 4 of the NFL season and this week brings another exciting slate of games to dissect including the high-profile return of Tom Brady to New England. For a full breakdown of this week’s games including matchups to watch and betting picks, check out my Week 4 Lines & Predictions. I’m looking forward to jumping back into the arena of Daily Fantasy this week. In this article, I’m bringing you my picks for the safest, highest-value cash plays at various price points at each position for Week 4.
Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals – $8,200 – Projection: 27.2
The first three weeks of this season have been phenomenal for Kyler Murray as he has finished with over 30 fantasy points in two of his three games. Last week was a bit slower for Murray, but that can be explained by a very positive game script as the Cardinals nursed a lead over the pitiful Jaguars. This week, Murray faces a tough Rams defense, but LA has surprisingly been exactly middle-of-the-pack in fantasy points allowed to QBs so far. The lower production last week and a perceived tougher matchup against the Rams have Murray’s price down $800 from last week. This wasn’t a matchup Murray succeeded in last year, but with one of the highest over-under totals on the week and a high-flying Rams’ offense on the other side, you’re looking at massive upside for Murray.
Jimmy Garoppolo – San Francisco 49ers – $7,000 – Projection: 19.4
Between an injury last season that limited him to just five starts and the prospect of a Trey Lance takeover this year, Jimmy Garoppolo has been left for dead in fantasy football in 2021. However, he has over 14 fantasy points in each game so far and has thrown for four touchdowns to just one interception. Seattle has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game this year and their defense isn’t terribly improved from the unit that allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs last year. Kirk Cousins threw for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns in a spotless game against the Seahawks last week, and while Jimmy G doesn’t have that type of upside, he’s an awesome value at this price.
Honorable Mentions: Josh Allen ($8,500), Jalen Hurts ($7,900), Kirk Cousins ($7,500)
David Montgomery – Chicago Bears – $7,500 – Projection:
The Bears only registered 1.1 yards per play on Sunday in Justin Fields’s debut, the second-lowest mark of the century, and everyone in the offense was affected. David Montgomery disappointed fantasy managers with just 55 yards from scrimmage on 12 touches. However, he should be due for a great bounce-back game this week against the Lions who are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game this season to opposing running backs. Montgomery should also be heavily involved in the passing game as he was on Sunday when he saw a 20% target share. Detroit’s defense should make things much easier for Justin Fields in this game and I’m not fading Montgomery after one bad week.
Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers – $7,400 – Projection: 19.1
It’s been an exceptional season for Aaron Jones as the RB2 overall so far, and yet his price tag has not increased on FanDuel. He faces one of the best front sevens in the NFL this week in the Steelers, a team that is allowing just 9.9 half-PPR points per game to RBs, the third-fewest. However, Pittsburgh could be without several key players including T.J. Watt, Tyson Alalu, Stephon Tuitt, and Alex Highsmith. Joe Mixon ran for 5.0 YPC last week against a banged-up Pittsburgh defense and Jones should see similar production this week. It also helps Jones that the Packers are expected to be playing with a lead for much of this contest as they are favored by about seven points this week.
Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins – $5,500 – Projection: 13.6
I can understand being disappointed in Myles Gaskin so far this season – he ranks just 34th in the NFL in half-PPR points at RB so far. However, he saw 13 carries and six targets last week, his highest involvement all season. That level of involvement wasn’t a coincidence as the Dolphins did a good job of changing the offense to help support backup-turned-starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Gaskin faces a Colts’ defense that ranks middle-of-the-pack in most run defense metrics this season. While Gaskin doesn’t have elite upside in any given week, he’s a clear value at this price.
Honorable Mentions: Derrick Henry ($10,200), D’Andre Swift ($7,700), Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000), Kareem Hunt ($6,400)
Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers – $8,100 – Projection: 21.5
Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Cooper Kupp are in a tier of their own at the wide receiver position for me, and Adams is the lowest-priced of the three. Adams also faces a Steelers’ defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. He caught 12 passes for 132 yards and finally reached the end zone last week, something I consider likely to happen again in this matchup. With their injured and limited pass rush, Rodgers should have all day to sit in the pocket and pick apart a limited secondary. Adams could easily finish as the WR1 on the week.
D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers – $7,300 – Projection: 16.4
The D.J. Moore breakout continues to truck along and he is coming off another impressive game with 8 catches for 126 yards against Houston. Moore has 31 targets so far this year and Christian McCaffrey was the only other player on the team to have more than 15. With CMC out this week, Moore’s elite 30% target share should only be more significant. Carolina faces a Dallas team that has been susceptible to the pass this season and with a hefty target share, Moore comes in at my WR6 in half-PPR scoring this week.
Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers – $5,700 – Projection: 11.9
After a slow start to the season, fantasy managers who spent a fourth or fifth round pick on Aiyuk were understandably panicked. However, he bounced back in Week 3 and played on 86% of the team’s snaps. Trent Sherfield, who had bizarrely outsnapped him in Week 1, only saw 3% of the snaps. This week, Aiyuk faces a beatable Seattle secondary in what should be a high-scoring game. Last season when Aiyuk faced the Seahawks, he registered 8 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. If he gets anywhere close to that level of production this week, he’ll be a steal at his current price.
Honorable Mentions: Cooper Kupp ($8,600), Brandin Cooks ($6,900), Odell Beckham Jr. ($6,600), Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800)
Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,200 – Projection: 20.7
On any given week, you can justify spending the needed money on Travis Kelce, the far-and-away best tight end in football. However, I see this as an especially juicy matchup for him against the Eagles who are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to TEs. I’m expecting Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense to come back with a vengeance after losing two straight games and Kelce could go over 100 yards for the third-straight week. In a matchup against his brother, Jason Kelce, and the Eagles, I’m banking on Travis Kelce coming away with another huge performance.
Will Dissly – Seattle Seahawks – $4,400 – Projection: 8.3
Seahawks tight end Gerald Everett was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list after a positive test, meaning he’s highly unlikely to play on Sunday. That would leave Will Dissly as the top tight end for Russell Wilson in a matchup against a vulnerable San Francisco secondary. With Everett out of the lineup, Dissly will likely play close to every snap as those are the only two tight ends who have seen the field this season. Dissly has top-five upside in a favorable matchup with Wilson throwing him the ball, and at this price point, it’s hard to find a better value.
Honorable Mentions: Noah Fant ($5,700), Dawson Knox ($5,600), Tommy Tremble ($4,800)
Washington Football Team – $4,000 – Projection: 8.2
The Washington defense this season is the perfect example of volatility for DSTs in fantasy football. After finishing as the 6th-highest-scoring fantasy defense last season, they are ranked dead last so far this year. Washington has allowed the fourth-most points and the second-most yards this season. However, this is the week they get back on track. Atlanta’s offensive line has struggled to protect Matt Ryan effectively this year and Washington’s pass rush should be able to take advantage. The Falcons allow the third-most fantasy points to DSTs this year, so this is an excellent spot for Washington to bounce back. At their deflated price point, I’m all over the DST this week.
Honorable Mentions: New Orleans Saints ($4,800), Chicago Bears ($4,500), Green Bay Packers ($4,200)