NFL Week 4 Patriots vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Strategy (10/2/22)

By Jacob Wayne | Oct 01, 2022, 7:21pm

Contents

One week after facing Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are facing the Patriots, albeit without Mac Jones. While Jones won’t be playing, this game provides plenty of intriguing storylines and opportunities for value on the players in action. In this article, I’ll build a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for the Patriots vs. Packers game, focusing on player props to boost our overall payout. Let’s dive in.

*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

NFL Week 4 Patriots vs. Packers Same Game Parlay

One of the first wagers I placed this week was on the Packers when the line was at -8.5, but I still like it at -9.5. While the narrative for Bill Belichick as an underdog is present, this will be a difficult spot for Brian Hoyer to make his first start since 2020 on the road against a tough Packers’ defense in Lambeau. I’ll take the Packers -9.5 for the first piece of our SGP.

Next, I’m adding Romeo Doubs to our SGP. Last week was highly promising for Doubs as he finished with eight receptions for 73 yards against an elite Tampa defense, showing great chemistry with Rodgers. Allen Lazard played one more snap than Doubs, but paced the team with eight targets and 34 routes run.

New England has the 28th-ranked pass defense per PFF and they rank 16th in passing defense DVOA, so this is a matchup Doubs can exploit. If you want to add Doubs to score a touchdown in this SGP, I don’t hate that strategy, but the Packers have so many weapons they can turn to in the red zone. Instead, I’ll keep it simple and play Doubs over 49.5 receiving yards at +125 odds.

On the Patriots’ side, there’s one obvious player who sticks out to me. Rhamondre Stevenson could be taking over as the Patriots’ lead running back as he’s out snapped Damien Harris 83-52 over the last two weeks. Stevenson’s usage since Ty Montgomery’s injury has been elite with 45% of the running back carries and 58% of the running back targets.

This matchup plays to Stevenson’s favor quite nicely as the Packers rank 32nd in rush defense DVOA and 31st in run defense per PFF’s grades. There are a few different ways you can play Stevenson in this game, particularly with his involvement in the passing game, but I’m keeping it simple and playing his rushing yardage at 50+ for +110 odds.

With the Packers spread and those two player props put together, we’re looking at a basic SGP that offers a great payout:

Green Bay Packers -9.5 (-110)
Romeo Doubs Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (+125)
Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Rushing Yards (+110)

Full SGP Odds: +900 ($10 wins $90)

NFL Week 4 Patriots vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Bankroll Builder

This game also presents some value for a bankroll builder. With these SGPs, we’re looking to combine “safe” props at lower odds to work our way back to even money. While nothing is guaranteed in betting, these bankroll builders can offer great stability as you look to also play higher-value longshot SGPs.

To start, I’ll take the Packers’ Moneyline which is sitting at -425 on DraftKings. While I didn’t take Green Bay in my survivor pool entry this week, I have high confidence in their ability to beat a Brian Hoyer Patriots team at home. Even if Mac Jones was starting, this would be a significant mismatch for New England.

Given the likely positive game script for the Packers in this game, they will be looking to run the ball a ton. A.J. Dillon provides excellent value to that end, and you can play his rushing yardage total at 39.5 yards with -285 odds. While he missed the mark on that total last week, the Packers were facing a tough Tampa defense, and he will find more success in this matchup.

Finally, I’m also adding Rhamondre Stevenson at 29.5 rushing yards for -360 odds. I wrote about how Stevenson is beginning to take over the New England backfield, and this matchup will be conducive to the Patriots running the ball. Even if it’s a split share with Damien Harris, it shouldn’t take too many carries for Stevenson to hit this number against a vulnerable run defense.

Full Bankroll Builder on FanDuel:

Green Bay Packers Moneyline (-425)
A.J. Dillon Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-285)
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-360)

Full Bankroll Builder Odds: +115 ($10 wins $11.50)

Jacob Wayne

I've been a huge sports fan for as long as I can remember and I've always loved writing. In 2020, I joined the Lineups team, and I've been producing written and video content on football and basketball ever since. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. My goal is to tell enthralling stories and provide meaningful insight on the sports I write about while helping you cash some bets along the way.