NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks + Strategy

How bout them Falcons?! On a week when the Chiefs, Chargers, and Bills, three of the most popular selections for survivor pools, all lost their games, we went against the grain with Atlanta and it paid dividends. While many of the most popular selections came through with a win, 75% of the Circa Survivor pool is now dead, and we’re staring down another tough week in Week 4.

There are a handful of choices that we know will be among the most popular for the week, and we can use Survivor Grid’s data to get more insight as the which teams are the most often used. Some of those teams will fall this week, while others will come through with surprising upsets. It’s what makes survivor pools so much fun. Let’s see if we can sift through and find a winner.

My Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks

I was tempted to use the Bengals last week in a must-win situation against the Jets, but I needed to see them shake off some rust first. They did just that last week as Joe Burrow threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns, and they will be looking to get back on track on Thursday Night Football this week.

The Dolphins earned the most impressive win of the season thus far against the Bills last week, but it’s time to sell high after the injuries they sustained. Tua Tagovailoa’s status is very much in question for this game, and Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Terron Armstead, and Robert Hunt also picked up injuries.

The Miami defense played a whopping 90 snaps as the Bills were on the field for over 40 minutes of the game in the heat and humidity in south Florida. Xavien Howard, Zach Sieler, Brandon Jones, and Rakewon Davis all popped up on the injury report after that game, and I’m expecting the entire defense to be fatigued.

After that brutal battle against the Bills last week, the short-week road game against the defending AFC Champions makes this a brutal spot for the Dolphins. That’s especially true for a pass-rush that ranks just 15th in PFF’s team grades and has relied on blitzes to generate pressure.

Cincinnati’s offensive line still has questions to answer as the season goes on, but Joe Burrow has excelled against the blitz – he had seven completions for 119 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets’ blitz last week. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will take advantage of Miami’s tired secondary when they decide to blitz.

This game matters much more to the Bengals than to the Dolphins, and I expect that desperation and tenacity to shine through in their play this week. The icing on the cake for me is that the Bengals are expected to have a 1.5% pick rate this week, giving us significant EV over the field.

"We got the first one behind us. Now I think we're going to be rolling." Joe Burrow Bengals #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/OYtvN5QTNN

— Mike Petraglia (@Trags) September 27, 2022

Week 4 Survivor Pool Most Used Teams

Green Bay Packers (-10, 39.4% pick rate): The Packers are projected to be the most popular survivor pool team this week with around 40% of the selections per Survivor Grid. It makes sense as they play at home against a Patriots team that has struggled and will now be without Mac Jones for the foreseeable future. If you want to play it safe, I can’t blame you, but the Packers have among the most future value of any team, and I don’t want to play them this early as one of the best teams in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 14.7% pick rate): The Eagles are one of the most hyped teams early this season as they are an impressive 3-0. Jalen Hurts is playing at an MVP level and the team is succeeding in all three phases. However, they face an equally impressive Jaguars team this week that arguably should be 3-0 as well. Jacksonville is for real, and they put the league on notice by beating the Colts and Chargers by a combined 52 points. There will be better weeks to use the Eagles coming up.

Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, 12.0% pick rate): I couldn’t be caught dead with a Chargers survivor pool entry this week. The injuries have piled up for this team once again as Rashawn Slater will miss the remainder of the season and Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Corey Linsley, Joey Bosa, and J.C. Jackson are all nursing injuries. I grabbed the Texans at +6 earlier in the week, and this Houston team beat the Chargers last season. I have my eyes on a home game against the Seahawks in Week 7 for the Chargers, at which point they will be healthier.

Detroit Lions (-4, 9.3% pick rate): I was planning on using the Lions this week, but I can’t lock them in right now. At the time I’m writing this article, the statuses of D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are very much in question for this week, and they are a different team without those two players. While the offensive line should overwhelm Seattle’s defensive front, Jared Goff isn’t a quarterback I’m overly excited to trust down multiple crucial skill players. If the Lions are as good as I think they are, there will be more opportunities to use them coming up.

#CircaSurvivor 2022 🏈🏆
Week 3 Selections

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— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) September 25, 2022